My AFD

Forecast problems...Temps,possible late winter storm/early spring storm for Monday night through Tue night..

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning across much of my Northern MN zones have dropped into the single digits and a few stations falling below zero...While in my WI zones where clouds held on through out much of the over night hours temps are in the lower 20s upper teens..Skies for the most part have cleared out in my MN zones,however some stations still showing clouds and a few flurries...In my WI zones Clear to cloudy skies are showing up in the SFC OBS..

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather map features a major winter storm centered over OK/AR..Large area of High pressure from Hudson Bay Canada into my FA..Mean time we find our trouble maker now make erodes into the Northwestern States....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Strong major winter storm is forecasted to move out of OK/AR towards the Northeast..By 00z Sunday said low should be over SW IL...996 MB low is forecasted to keep moving NE into NE IN and into MI....Between this low pressure and the high pressure...Both have severed to bring much colder air into the FA,where skies did have a chance to clear out temps drop to near zero over night...So with that in mind,I have decided to cut model guidance's a few degrees...I will keep LES going over our snow belts of WI for today as fetch still seems reasonable...Will keep rest of the forecast period dry as high pressure slowly moves out of the FA....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI.....

Here is where things get rather interesting....Strong major winter storm is forecasted by all models to take shape over CO as energy dive SE from the NW States...996 MB low pressure should form in the NE part of CO Monday....This low is than forecasted to really crank up with it's mean pressure dropping to around 994 MBS as it pushes into SW IA late Monday night/early Tuesday....Said low is than forecasted to transverse across central WI towards the UP of MI...This track would keep all of the FA in snow...However there are some indications that some rain could be mixed in in our WI zones...For now I left it all snow,as there are few thing that just don't match up well just yet....If I was to put my neck on the chopping block and say how much snow...Right now I would run with a range of 4 to 8 inches across a good real estate of my FA...That is still up in the air at this point in time.....For the rest of the this forecast cycle will keep some light snow alive...Models are not seeing eye to eye on what may very well end up being another snowstorm for the FA late in the week/weekend...Will just leave this at that for now and will try to hash that out in tomorrow's updated forecast...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

Models hinting at another possible snowstorm for the parts of the FA mainly our SE part of my MN zones into my WI zones for Monday/Tuesday's time frame...Meanwhile high pressure is forecasted to make camp over the FA for the upcoming weekend...
On Sunday we will see a 992 MB low over TX/OK panhandle areas...This low is forecasted to move NE into Western MO then lows moves into NE IL just North of the Windy City..While it does this thing bombs out to around 989 MBS....If indeed this track pans out parts of the FA will be dealing with another major winter storm as this system will also have enough cold air to work with..GFS has the storm tracking right through WI so if GFS is right the whole FA could see a winter storm....Looks like a winter weather pattern than a spring pattern....