Sunday, March 1, 2009

Rant/than forecast

Where is spring that everyone keep yelling about,I sure don't see it....Sure we will see few warm days here and there,by the mid to late week...Longer term as you will see pusts us back below norms again...Before warming back up late in the long term forecast....One to 4 days of warm temps does not mean spring is here!...I'm sure we will all be hearing that late this in this upcoming week...Don't believe it folks..Spring will not be here,it will only be a tease!!...By the end of the longer term things start to look a little better for temps to warm and may remain warm...We shall see....

My AFD below....

Rather dull forecast in the short term,How long to hold on to the cold temps....Precip chances mid week...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps through the FA are very cold for this time of year,as Arctic high pressure remains in control...Temps in our MN areas any where from the single digits below to as cold as middle 20s below.....In our WI zones temps range from the single digits below to the upper teens below...Here in Rice Lake -6.2

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning we find a large 1046 MB Arctic high pressure over far ND....This high has been responsible for the very cold temps the FA has been seeing over the last few days.....We see a storm system in the deep South and another system off the Coast line of the NJ...Out on the West Coast we find a strong 992 MB low pressure spinning West of WA,and OR.....

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.....

High pressure is forecast to move East across the area,hence we will hang on to the much below norm temps...Will for the most part remain dry,however we may see some light snow/flurries Tuesday night as WAA starts to kick in..LES will be possible this morning through out our snow belts of WI...As the high pressure slowly moves of to the East winds will become South this will aid in LES along our North shore for tonight and Monday...Will keep highs in the teens today,did cut computer guidance temps by a few degrees,as they really haven't had the best handle on this Arctic blast...As morning lows have proven once again...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Main story here will be temps...We will see a rather nice warm up,temps will be slightly above norms,close to 40 for Friday and may go into the lower 40s on Saturday...Lows will range from the upper teens to lower 20s through this frame,as we remain in a zonal flow through much of the upper mid-west...However ECMWF model shows an Arctic cold front moving into the area,while other models don't show this...We will have to watch this as the ECWMF as been the model of choice through this whole winter,as it has done really great with cold snaps,and winter storms...So we may very well have to drop the temps back to below norms in the next few forecasts...We are getting to that time of year when we will see the GFS,and NAM models take over the show,could this be the start....Time will tell soon enough....

LONGER TERM FORECAST ( SUNDAY MAR 8 THROUGH TUESDAY MAR 17)

We start the period out with a chance of some snow, and temps do cool off from -2 to -4...Temps will remain below norms through much of this time frame....By Mar 14 models do show temps getting back to the normal mark,by Mar 15 temps get close to +4C also looks like a storm system will be centered over Central MN mostly rain for our WI ,and most of our MN zones,part of our Western MN zones could see a mix or just all snow from this system on Mar 16,Later Monday/Monday night the rest of the FA should change over to a mix or all snow...Tuesday low pressure pulls off to the East temps should remain on either side on the norms....
Side note ...Could this be the signs of spring at the end of this preriod ?.....I can only hope...