Update on the Major winter storm

Forecast problems...Major snowstorm for Monday night through Tuesday night...This AFD will focus mainly around that....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps below zero greet the morning for those of you in Northern MN,while the rest of our MN zones have temps in the single digits to the middle teens...Our WI zones are basking in temps in the lower to middle 20s..Radar showing some flurries in our far Southern zones of WI at this hour....Skies range from clear to mostly cloudy...All dependant on where you live..Winds are rather light across the FA this morning...

SCF ANALYSIS.....

This morning we find a 1000 MB low pressure over NE KS,meanwhile we see a 1026 MB Arctic high pressure on the Western door step of Hudson Bay....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

For the most part our FA will be under the influence of the high pressure system..Our far Southern zones of MN,WI may see some light snow as low pressure moves towards the Northeast,However the low is tracking more South that was figured yesterday..So in our far sections only light snow will be possible today...No accumulations are now forecasted....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

Here is where the real problems start up.....Will throw the NAM model right out the window,as it is the outlier once again...I won't even talk about this model,as there no details I agree with....
GFS has now come into a better agreement with ECMWF model...Will lay heavier on the ECMWF model with most of the details..Will however toss in some details from GFS model....
Monday see a 1000 MB low pressure over Eastern CO...This low is forecasted to deepen to around 996 MBS as it pushes into Western KS by 00Z Tuesday,By 18z Tue..Said low should be over Southern IA..By 00z Wed..Low should be over Southwest WI...Low then moves into Far Northeast WI...Meanwhile a 1042 MB high pressure is waiting to take the stage..High gets a little pushy causing pressure gradients to increase....This system will have lots of wind to work with....As far as where the heavy snow band sets up..As of right now looks like Central MN into far Northern WI,however the foot plus snows should be from Central MN into Northern MN...This area will also see blizzard conditions,with heavy snow and strong winds....Meanwhile over in our Central and Southern areas zones of WI...Precip here should be a mix of rain and snow and more so rain on Tuesday, may see some thunderstorm activity from time to time...This are will change over to snow,however ATTM accumulations look to be much lighter here.....We will have to watch this storm close..The next few computer runs should have this all written in stone....So the track has about 30% chance of changing at this point...