Forecast discussion for West Central & Northwest WI

This forecast discussion will namely revolve around the severe thunderstorm chances along with heavy rainfall.... Lots to talk about this morning so lets dive right into....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning temps are in the lower to middle 60s throughout the entire FA Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Skies range from Partly sunny to sunny... Winds are light out of the SE.... Radar is showing a area of showers and thunderstorms over North Central to West Central MN some of these thunderstorms have been severe this morning...The entire area is moving East/Southeast....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning weather charts feature a 1017 MB high pressure centered over far Northwestern MI, this has allowed a return flow to take over the FA a frontal boundary/Warm front over Southern MN shall remain there throughout Saturday before a cold front kick its out of the area...Warm front may try to work Northwards from time to time, however thunderstorms complexes should hold it at bay.... Nevertheless this frontal boundary will set the stage for thunderstorms later this afternoon.... Now dependant on what transpires with this morning's complex will decide if we see severe thunderstorms or not...SPC has the area under a mod risk of severe thunderstorms... Still the atmosphere is forecasted to destabilizes dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s... meanwhile Cape is forecasted to increase from 500 to 2000 J/KG this afternoon... LIS are forecasted to range from -2 to -4 EHI is forecasted to range from 0.0 to 1.0 across the FA even higher over parts of MN... Thinking this is where the greatest tornado threat will setup... Not saying my FA won't see any tornadoes... Upper level support is not what I would like to see ATTM... Tomorrow afternoon the upper level support does look better... Tonight thunderstorms are forecasted to form into MCS with damaging wind threat along with heavy rainfall QPF showing 1 to 2 inches of rain with localized higher amounts... I would not be shocked to see some 3 or even four inch amounts, if thunderstorms are slow to move, and keep training over the same areas... With the ground already saturated flooding may become a problem for the area... Will have to watch this as this event unfolds.... Will keep the severe weather threat alive for tomorrow as the frontal boundary remains close if not overhead... tomorrow may be the best severe weather day... Again this will depend on if the tonight's thunderstorm complex clears the area to allow for SFC heating to kick in.... Nonetheless looks to be a busy couple of days here on the road and at the office....

So to recap today and through Saturday night severe weather threats...
Later today into the evening the risk would be large hail and damaging winds...One or two tornadoes can't be rules out... Thinking is South Central/Southern MN would have the better chance for tornadoes.... This evening into the over night hrs the risk shall turn to damaging winds and flooding.... Saturday afternoon into the evening severe weather threat...Large hail damaging winds, a few tornadoes will be possible...Then again the threat for Saturday late evening through the over night hrs switches back to a damaging and flooding event....
***RADAR UPDATE AS OF 8:00 AM***
Showers and thunderstorms now have pushed into Douglass,Bayfield, Burnett,and Washburn Counties... This area is moving to the East/Southeast...