Western & Northwestern WI forecast

The forecast still remains to be problematic as models still having a very hard time handling shortwaves/trofs moving along a frontal boundary stalled to our South...Radar is showing showers over in MN that is moving Northeast.. Looking at other radars we see an thunderstorm complex over KS, NE, into IA.. This whole area has been working Northeast with with embedded cells moving East.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS**

At this 7 Am hr skies are cloudy throughout the entire FA, along with areas of fog...Temps are in the middle to upper 50s winds are clam to around 5 MPH....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

As stated above this forecast will be a problem.. MCS could/will be the main player... How far North to bring the showers and storms for today.... The RUC model does seem to be the model of choice however am going to blend models, that seem to play well in yesterday's forecast and see no reason why it won't work out today.. Frontal boundary to our South is forecasted to slowly sink to the South, wave of low pressures still forecasted to traverse across the boundary area, meantime a a trof is moving across SD this area of forecasted to move East across the MN/Canada border...This trof should have little impact on the FA... However still should see some rain showers in my Northern FA... The MCS is forecasted to move Northeast this should weaken as it heads into the FA... However with the way the weather pattern has been will have to keep rain showers alive.. Will not use thunder wording in forecast as lift and forcing is rather null... However tonight I have decided to use thunder wording as a trof/cold front pushes through the area.. Some lift noted with this feature.... High pressure is forecasted to take control of our weather on Monday... So if that works out we could see some sunshine, something we haven't see in sometime... Upper level low pressure over the Southwest US is forecasted to move Northeast and should join forces with a trof dropping down from Canada.. We should start to feel the impacts late Monday night into the Tuesday's time frame.. ATTM severe thunderstorms look to be null.... We will have to see how the timing plays outs with this system... Does look to be a rather rainy day across the FA otherwise...

Extended forecast dis. Wednesday as of right now looks to be dry, however this will be short lived as yet another strong wave/frontal boundary pushes into the area.... This will bring back showers and thunderstorms.. Temps will sure feel the effect of the rain and clouds through out this whole time frame, though models do try to warm them up by weeks end into next week...If this works out we could be in the middle 80s by next Friday and Saturday...However confidence levels are still rather low for this entire forecast....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Cloudy with a chance of showers this afternoon.. Highs either side of 70.. Winds Northwest 5 to 10 MPH.. Tonight cloudy with slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms... Lows in the lower to middle 50s Northwest/North winds 5 to 10 MPH...

***MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT***

Partly cloudy with highs either side of 70 winds North/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH...Showers and a few thunderstorms over night... Lows in the middle 50s.. Winds shifting to East/Southeast...

***TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.. Lows in the middle 50s.

Wednesday looks to be dry, then afterward showers and storms shall greet the FA once again...

So over all look for a off and on showers and thunderstorms through much of next, with warming temps...