Thursday, June 10, 2010

The forecast for Western and Northwest Wisconsin...

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL***

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to move in from MN, already radar is showing a rather large area of showers and storms over parts of SW MN up into Western and West Central MN...A few showers and storms are found up in Pine, Aitkin, Morrison, and Todd Counties...Area of prcip is moving to the East, Northeast.... Low pressure over Eastern CO/Western KS is forecasted to lift Northeast into MN during the day on Friday...As this does moisture will be on the increase along with instability PWS values also increase to around 1.75 to 2.00 inches Friday and Saturday....This would lead to rainfall amounts around an inch or two with some areas picking up close to if not more that 3 inches of rain...Now as far as severe thunderstorms go...There will be some problems that will need to be work out... First off would be SFC heating if we can get a few hours of sunshine we would have a better chance at severe thunderstorms...Will depend on how fast tonight's MCS move out....Also at the 700 MB level models showing a rather warm push of air this may cause some capping issues...Thinking that should be over Southern MN and SW WI....Temps at the 700 MB level soar into the teens on Friday...LIS do increase to around -2 c Dewpoints will on the way up during this time frame should be into upper 50s to lower 60s or so by tonight.... Did not use severe wording in the forecast ATTM...

***TODAY***

Showers and a few thunderstorms likely this afternoon highs around the upper 60s to lower 70s... Winds 5 to 10 MPH out of the South/Southeast.

***TONIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms likely some thunderstorms could produce heavy rain along with some small hail and gusty winds.. Lows around 60 or so... Winds Southeast around 15 MPH higher in and around thunderstorms...

***FRIDAY***

Showers and thunderstorms to start your day. Heavy rain possible.. Then showers and thunderstorms still likely in the afternoon. Some storms may produce large hail and strong winds....Highs around 70 to 75.. Winds South around 10 to 15 MPH.. Higher gusts in and around thunderstorms...