The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

This forecast discussion will mainly deal with Thursday's and Thursday's possible severe thunderstorm outbreak....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 7 AM HR skies throughout the FA are mainly cloudy with widespread fog.. Temps in the middle to upper 50s cooler around Lake Superior...Winds calm to around 5 MPH from the W/NW....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Yesterday's shortwave now a distance memory as it is centered over the Great Lakes area...High pressure building into the FA should give us one of the nicest days we have seen in sometime, with warmer temps under sunny skies...Good day to get the yard work done, as this will be short lived....
Time to hash out the details of what could be the first possible severe weather outbreak for the FA...First on the plate is how remarkable the computer models are in agreement on this, sure some differences are showing up, but overall things are looking rather good so confidence levels are rather great....Will blend a mix of details from NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF, however will mainly use ECMWF model for the finer details...992 MB low pressure over CO is forecast to lift into Eastern MT/Western ND then push into Canada were it deepens to around 990 MBS...As this does winds will switch to the SE this evening...Moisture flow will also begin to increase...Low level jet start to get it's act going also at the 250 MB height we see a 40 to 50 KT wind from the West/Northwest...At the 700 MB level winds are from the SW at 20 to 30 KTS however they do increase to around the 40 to 50 KTS Looking at the 850 MB level winds from 30 to 40 KTS from the South.. So we do have a good deal of wind shear to play with... Dewpoints soar into the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow... MLCAPE values shoot for around the 1500 to 2000 J/KG... With all that said.... Model do forecast a thunderstorms complex to form out West over SD/ND and they move this into Northwestern MN...We may see this build into parts of Central MN... Depending on where this complex sets up and if we do indeed get caught up in this mess will be one of the main players to keep the threat of severe weather down... Models do show this complex moving out and weaken it... So partly cloudy skies for now seem to be the best way to run... Nevertheless this should allow for temps and instability to climb... Player number two capping issues 700 MB temps forecasted to run around +12 c to +14 c.. Models do show the cap breaking down as thunderstorms fire up in Western MN and work East Southeast along the cold frontal boundary.... Thunderstorms could form into MCS Thursday night... As the cold front is forecasted to slow down as it gets closer to the FA....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Mostly sunny once the for burns off.. Highs in the middle 70s ... Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Winds NW around 5 MPH, switching to the Southeast tonight...

***THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT***

Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon.. Highs in the middle 80s.. Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts...Showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into the over night hrs... Lows in the middle 60s.. Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH...

***FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

Partly to mostly sunny skies highs in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s....