Severe weather chances later today into tonight...

More severe thunderstorms are possible through parts of the FA once again later this afternoon and into tonight... So this FA discussion will focus on that...


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS this morning shows temps in the middle to upper 60s cooler up in my far Northern areas... Skies for the most part cloudy with areas of fog..There has been some breaks note in the cloud deck per satellite imagery.. Winds range from the North to South across the FA.... Dewpoints still rather muggy middle to upper 60s once again cooler up North....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning's fog and low clouds burn off and set us up with a partly cloudy day...This will allow for temps to reach for middle 80s might see a few upper 80s... Last night MCS that formed over MN/WI has forced the warm front back down into IA... This morning we see a 1001 MB low pressure system over West NE... Along what appears to be a shortwave around CO..Low over NE is forecasted to slowly push East this will try to push the warm front back Northwards, once again dependant on how far the frontal boundary comes North will be how far North to bring the severe weather threat... Will talk about that in a min... Nonetheless most of the FA should see heavy rainfall once again this evening into the over night hrs as storms form into MCS...OK time to hash out where the best area of severe thunderstorms may rear their ugly heads later today.... Cape values soar from 1500 J/KG to around 2500 J/KG for Central and Southern parts on the FA...LIS around -4... Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be the rule right through tonight... Looking at the 700 MB chart we find temps around the +5c to +10c range so capping won't be an issue as of now.... PWS ranging from 1.25 to 1.50 inches across the FA...There is better upper level support today and most of the severe indices are being meet.... SFC heating has kicked in for parts of the FA this morning.... So with the warm front near by later this afternoon and a cold front pushing into the area later this evening...Thunderstorms once again should blow up rather fast in MN.... My thinking is the main tornado threat will be out in MN giving the better dynamics in place over there....Storms will be capable of producing large tornadoes on the on slot then storms are forecasted to form into MCS, as this happens the main threat will be hail and damaging winds along with very heavy rainfall amounts... Now thinking is as of right now, which may change by this afternoon is the severe thunderstorm threat will remain South of a Barron, Polk, and Rusk County line....Said Counties still could see heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms... With a few of the storms reaching the lower thresholds on the severe weather scale.