Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES***


Could we dealing with around of severe thunderstorms later today, and through out the evening through the overnight hrs...Yes, No, or Maybe....This forecast discussion will focus on that.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning we are greeted by mostly sunny skies across the FA...Some stations still reporting some fog, along with VSB down to around 1/4 of a mile.. Temps have a wide range to them this morning....Middle 50s up around Lake Superior to the middle to upper 60s elsewhere's a few stations reporting 70s...Dewpoints mainly in the lower to middle 60s,cooler along Lake Superior...Winds from the SE for the most part around 5 MPH..Radar at this hr showing showers and thunderstorms out over far Western MN and down into NE and throughout IA/IL... All clear in the FA...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Lets try to hash out this severe weather threat to some degree...
Dewpoints are already in the lower to middle 60s NAM is showing a slight decrease in values down into middle to upper 50s for a short time today before ramping back into the upper 60s to lower 70s later this afternoon and evening...
NAM is also showing Cape values increasing as we head through the day 1500 J/KG to around 2500 J/KG...LIS are forecasted by NAM to range from -2 to -4 throughout the FA.. With -6 over in MN through far SW WI....Lets look at the RUC model...Here we see dewpoints will remain in the middle 60s with an upward trend to the upper 60s to lower 70s by time we reach the late afternoon hrs...RUC keeps the Cape values almost close to the NAM... LIS is also about the same...Looking at the GFS we find LIS here are about the same, however stronger just to the South where LIS range from -6 to -8..PWS on the models showing around 1.5 to 2.0... Dewpoint values off the GFS show about the same as RUC... So we do have the dynamics in place for the possibility of severe thunderstorms later today throughout tonight...
Cold front over the Dakotas is forecasted to push into Western MN this morning and move towards the FA by later today/tonight... Meanwhile a warm front in IA is forecasted to lift North/Northeastwards... Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to form along the cold front and down South along the warm front.... The ongoing storms this morning in said areas have also left several outflow boundaries which will also act as focus point for more thunderstorms to form...This has me somewhat concern about the threat of severe storms in the FA... It will depend on what takes place down in IA... If storms keep forming this will rob some of the dynamics from reaching this far North.. SFC heating won't be a problem as that has already gotten a early start.... Clusters of thunderstorms later today is forecasted to form into an MCS, if this does play out which looks likely we should see a large area of showers and thunderstorms... With a damaging wind threat later this evening into Wed morning... As of right now my thinking is the best areas to see severe thunderstorms shall be found over SD Southern MN along with SW WI and points South of there.... Nevertheless the FA does have a chance of severe thunderstorms later today into the over night hrs.... Main threat from severe thunderstorms over the FA would be large hail and damaging winds... Although one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out... It's unlikely attm.... This forecast may need to be updated this afternoon if things chance...