Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Severe thunderstorm chances...Warm & humid air...


A few things that may play havoc with this forecast...I will discus that in a few...

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Looking at the SFC OBS temps through out the FA for the most part are in the upper 60s to lower 70s... Cold spot which is not that cold for them is up in Superior with a temp of 61... The warm spot is over in Osceola coming in at 73...A humid morning with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s, in the middle to upper 50s up North...Winds for the most part are out of the S/SE from 3 to 10 MPH.... Most stations are reporting cloudy skies...Here in Rice Lake we have been seeing a few breaks here and there....Radar @ 9:33 AM is showing a few showers and thunderstorms over parts of Polk, St. Croix, Pierce, Pepin, and Dunn Counties...More widespread area of showers and thunderstorms noted over SW MN down into IA...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Warm front over IA is forecasted to lift slowly Northwards through Tuesday, at the same time a cold front if forecasted to move East/Southeast on Tuesday.. As of right now I don't feel there will be a widespread severe weather chance for today... However a few strong thunderstorms could be possible, or even reach the low end on the severe thresholds... SFC heating shall be kept down with clouds and forecasted showers and storms... Tomorrow on the other hand could be a whole new book to read... This will be dependent on a few factors... Biggest one...The placement of thunderstorms complexes that form tonight, and how fast we can get breaks in the cloud cover to form... Instability is forecasted to be greater on Tuesday afternoon and night.. -2 to -4 seems plausible ... LLJ is also forecasted to become a little stronger by Tuesday late day/evening... Capping shouldn't be issue, Am concern about wind shear as it is not a strong as I would like to see... So for severe weather chances... 1 will have to see were the MCS setup tonight and how fast we can get SFC base heating kicking in.. 2. were the frontal boundary sets up (warm front to our South, cold front moving in from the West/NW... 3. how fast we can get deep level moisture back in the area. If thunderstorm complexes do form how much of that will they rob.... So as of right now my thinking the best chance of severe thunderstorms will remain to the South... However this could still change... As this weather pattern we are in is somewhat to forecast for...Mainly the timing of thunderstorms... Should have a better handle on this later today... So I do plan to have an update after I see the newest computer model runs...

***RADAR UPDATE***

Showers and thunderstorms have moved into Barron, Chippewa, Eau Claire Counties....A few stronger cells still over Dunn, Polk and St. Croix Counties.. As of 10:16 AM this Monday morning.