Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Still looking dry right through Saturday, all with warming temps..


At this 9 Am hr under sunny to mostly sunny skies temps range from the upper 50s North to the middle 60s South.. Dewpoints are in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Winds are out of the South from 3 to 7 MPH...


This morning the weather charts of the NAM model is showing a 1025 MB high pressure centered over Southeast WI.... This has allowed for winds to back to the South/Southeast.. This will allow for warmer temps today under mostly to sunny skies...This high pressure is forecasted to drift into Western MI By Friday the high should be over Eastern MI.... Meanwhile one can find a 1001 MN low pressure over WY, this is forecasted to lift Northeastwards toward Western ND before filling, However Friday there is another low pressure system forming over Northeast WY this one is stronger 998 MBS... This is forecasted to move into Far Northwest ND then into Canada on Saturday this low is forecasted to deepen to around 989 MBS.. Temps are forecasted to be in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s by later Thursday and lasting through Saturday. Lets look at the GFS model next... GFS has the has the high pressure a tad more North over Northeastern WI later today.. GFS does drop the high into Western MI on Thurs about the same area NAM has it...GFS is faster in moving the high Southeast then NAM by Saturday GFS shows the high on Mid Atlantic Coast line...Meantime GFS has a 1002 MB low in Northeast WY Southeast MT by Thurs..GFS weakens the low later Thurs to around 1007 MBS as it pushes into Western ND/SD...Then we see another low pressure over taken shape over Western ND on Friday, this low is forecasted to around 999 MBS Late Friday night/early Saturday Morning GFS stills shows this low over that are, however the low is forecasted to deepen to around 993 MBS.. By later Saturday said low moves into Canada Just North of Northwestern MN.. The low is forecasted to work Eastwards Sunday... This should drag a cold front into the FA or very close to the FA...GFS showing dewpoints in the middle 60s to upper 60s by the weekend....ECMWF model showing about the same, however it's a tad slower in bring the cold front into and through the area...This would keep showers and thunderstorms through Monday/Monday night.... Which does seem plausible.. Given the other models also have slowed the main weather features down some...


Mostly sunny skies highs today in the middle 70 afew lower 80s not out of the question Highs through the rest of this forecast cycle middle to upper 80s... There still is a chance at seeing lower 90s by Saturday.. Overnight lows in the warming from the middle 50s tonight to the middle 60s Saturday night.


We do have a chance at showers and thunderstorms as of right now under mostly cloudy skies.. High in the middle 80s, however if we can get more sun we would have a good chance at seeing temps hitting that 90 degree mark.

So to recap..

It will start to get muggy after today and lasting right through the 4th of July weekend... With a chance of showers and thunderstorms coming into play on the 4th... If models keep slowing everything down we may be able to keep Sunday and Sunday evening dry.... We shall see later in the week...