Saturday, June 12, 2010

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***


SFC OBS this morning shows temps ranging from 50 up North to the upper 50 South....Winds as of this writing are under 10 MPH....Must stations showing under 5 MPH out of the N/NE... Some areas of fog also being reporting... Skies through out the FA are cloudy...Radar is showing another shower and thunderstorm complex this morning... This area is located out in MN SW of the Twin Cities metro area... All this activity is moving East Northeast...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning on the weather charts we find a frontal boundary that reaches from MI all the way back into CA.... Areas of low pressure/trofs can be found riding said boundary..RUC showing a 1008 MB low pressure over far Eastern KS this is forecasted to move into IA then into far Southern MN... GFS, NAM, along with other models really not helping that much.. So I have decided to use a blend from all for this forecast period... This morning thunderstorm complex was looking like it was riding the boundary area, however have been seeing a shift to the Northeast over the few hrs.. Somewhat drier air has worked into the FA during the overnight hrs.This may cause this complex to weaking as it moves towards the FA... Yesterday I was thinking Sunday was going to be rather nice, well models have slowed movement of trofs down to a crawl which in return shall keep clouds hanging on along with a chance of rain going through the morning hrs... I still think skies will become PC in the afternoon... Confidence level for this forecast is rather low and gets lower next week... Models showing warmer air moving into the are by with highs in the 80s.. Last week we saw the same thing models yelling upper 80s for this weekend and look what happen.... We shall see... Most of next week as it appears right now shall offer the same as the last 2 weeks... Off and in showers and thunderstorms....Now for the pain in the butt forecast....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Cloudy with a chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two. Highs around 70 winds North/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH...Lows tonight in the middle 50s under mostly cloudy skies then we could see showers and thunderstorms...Wind mainly from the North around 5 MPH

***SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***

Mostly cloudy with a small chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm in the morning...Then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon...Highs around 73 or so... Winds from the Northwest from 5 to 10 MPH....Lows Sunday night under partly cloudy skies fall back into the middle 50s....

***MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT***

More showers and thunderstorms with highs around 70...Lows in the middle 50s....