***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DISCUSSION***

Well be talking about the severe weather chances for later today through tonight... Not much time to look at much after this period...




***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Skies are mainly partly cloudy throughout the FA... Temps in the upper 50s to middle 60s... Lower 50s are to be had up around Lake Superior.. Dewpoints for the most part are in the lower 60s, again cooler up in the far Northern areas.. Winds range from calm to around 5 MPH out of the E/SE this morning...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Severe thunderstorms are seeming more likely later today through tonight...A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms has been issued for most of the FA.. Models are more in tuned today with the setup for severe thunderstorms, however still a few things they don't agree on.. So will use a blend....Models are forecasting the thunderstorm complex over ND/Western MN to push North/Northeast as shortwave/trof moves North/Northeast... However radar trends some of the storms over Western MN moving more East... Something we will have to watch.... More thunderstorms are forming over IA and pushing North... once again we will have to watch that area to see what transpires..

Low pressure this morning over SD is forecasted to deepen and pushes into Canada this will drag a cold front into MN during the day and towards the FA later today into tonight...Cape values are forecasted to range from 2000 to 2500 J/KG... Dewpoints are forecasted to soar into the upper 60s to lower 70s.... Cap is strong and should hold strong throughout the day.. 700 MB temps ranging from the +12 c to +14 c... Strong wind shear is also setting up.. However by time thunderstorms get to the FA we should see a line of showers and thunderstorms... This line should form into an MCS... Could see some embedded supercells... As of right now my thinking is MN will see the best action...Although here in WI we still should see some severe thunderstorms.. If the cold front picks up a little more speed our chances of severe thunderstorms with the threat of tornados would increase, as it looks right now the main threat would be large hail and damaging winds over here.. Still can't rule out one or two tornadoes though.. Friday the threat of severe thunderstorms should be East and South of the area, however we will have to see where the cold front stalls out.. If it stalls a little more North then tomorrow we could be dealing with more severe weather throughout parts of the FA.....