SKYWARN class/today temps

First off the bat..The NWS will be using some of my pictures once again this year for their SKYWARN classes....
Now on to the temps for today....I was not sure why I reading 29 all day long....After I restarted my program them my temp read 40 then 42...Right now I'm back down 35....So now all is good...Was sure strange I still feel when Rice Lake was reporting 38 that was wrong that happen way to early, as everyone else attm was telling my 29 to 30..I can buy into the temps in the 40s later in afternoon...Then after I figured out why I was sittting at 29 to 30 all day and seeing the SFC OBS I was going crazy trying to figure out what was going on,changed the battery ,Then I checked the program it's self looked fine,my computer programer came over and found the problem with the software and he fixed it...So all it good once again...

Updated forecast

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting out in the middle to upper teens..SFC OBS showing mostly cloudy skies in our Northern zones of MN...While in my Southern MN zones some partly cloudy skies being reported...Some light snow also showing up in Far Northwestern areas of MN...Over in WI..SFC OBS showing mostly cloudy skies.....

SFC ANALYSIS...

This morning's weather map we still see that warm front over the western part of MN...Large ridge of high pressure still in control of the Western States...We see our next shot of Arctic air poised to the Northwest up in Canada...High pressure that kept our skies mostly sunny yesterday has now slipped into the TN/OH Valleys....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Here is where the fun begins....Let start of with the wintry mix of precip...We will kept the precip going over our Northern areas of MN, and WI for today....I did pull the precip out of our far Southern zones of MN, and WI for today and tonight.....
Warm front is forecasted to move Eastwards today and by 12Z should be bisecting the Sate of MN...This will usher in warmer temps...Temps this morning already starting out rather warm....Still feel temps will be the warmest in our Western and Southern zones of MN were clouds should become more broken up with partly cloudy skies as a rule....Still feel temps will remain below the 32° mark most areas of MN...Our very far Southern zones may hit the 32° mark....Over in our WI zones temps will be cooler,even where clouds do clear out temps should only be in the upper 20s at best,as this areas..With rather still deep snow pack and rather low level sun angles,along with the timing of the warm front Which is forecasted to move through my WI zones around 18Z today...If warm front would have moved through a few hours before 18Z then I could have seen some of our WI zones hit 32°.....Warm up will be short lived as by later tonight the first cold front plows into the area...By 00Z Sunday front should be pushing through most of my WI zones....This will bring in some windy conditions as pressure gradient increases winds 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH can be excepted with the passage of the cold front...Temps do take a hit tonight....Sunday it's self will see temps around the lower 20s through out much of the FA...Will bring back snow chances to my Southern zones of MN, and WI as a weak system along with another cold front moves in from the Northwest Sunday night through Monday....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Arctic high pressure will be camping out over the area Temps will have a hard time getting above the lower teens on Tuesday...And lows well below zero Tuesday night...Wednesday I may have to cut temps back even more right now I have them in the 20s through out a good deal of the FA.....One good thing this Arctic air mass shouldn't last very long and shouldn't be as cold as the last few we have saw....

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Temps really begin to moderate during this time frame...Looks like a nice quiet period....We may also hit our first 32° mark of the new year by Thursday or Friday...By Saturday some our far Southern Zones of MN, and WI may be in the middle 30s,as we bask under a large ridge of high pressure.... Along with upper level winds becoming zonal and then Southwesterly....

LONGER TERM ( SUNDAY FEB 8 THROUGH MONDAY FEB 16).....

This time frame still looking very interesting for the FA....Tuesday 254 hr we see a system forming over the TX panhandle,By the 276 hr system moves Northeast wards towards IA them by the 288 hr Thu system should be effecting the whole FA....
We should be in the warm sector of the low pressure at the beginning so rain with rain changing over to snow...We may even get the chance at hearing our first rumble of thunder,whether it be a thunderstorm or thundersnow still remains up in the air...This system has the possibility of becoming a major winter storm for all of my FA...Could start off as an rain then going to an ice storm before we get into some good snowfall amounts....This will all depend on the track of the storm,and whether or not severe thunderstorm form way to South to rob the GOM moisture moving North....This is something we will have to watch....As of right now it is way out there in time so my confidence level is low ATTM,nevertheless this has been on the last few computer runs....Temps will be up and down through this time frame...If one does an ave they will come up with temps still running below norms....

Below temps won't end, a few warm days here and there.Forecast below

Temps cold this morning,will slowly warm up before our next cool down arrives late in the weekend,Chance of wintry mix....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Skies over the FA are ranging from Mostly cloudy up in the Siren area to Clear through out the rest of the FA....Temps dropped well below zero last night, and are ranging from - 21 at Hayward to -6 over in New Richmond...Satellite showing clouds over in MN,would expect them to start moving in later this morning in areas that are clear as of this writing....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Cold front has pushed well to the South and East of the area....Cold front is now over the OH Valley and reaches towards Northern MO and back into Northeastern NE,Cold front goes under morphogenesis into a warm front from SD to ND up into Canada..Here is were our next cold front lies at this hour,meanwhile large ridge of high pressure still in control of the Western States..

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

High pressure is forecasted to shift to the South/Southeast today,Warm front will slowly work towards the East..This will allow some WAA to kick in and will allow for clouds to increase this morning...May see some light snow later this afternoon across the FA,not to thrilled about accumulations attm...Temps today really aren't going to warm up as some News Media have been screaming over the last few days...Thinking temps will range from around 10 North to middle teens South....Tonight WAA starts to take off will keep temps steady some places closer to the MN border may even raise a little....There will be a chance of a wintry mix as the warm over rides the cooler air at the SFC....Saturday will be a tricky day as far as temps go.....As of right now my I will have to say upper 20s look the way to run,however closer to the MN border temps may every well hit the lower 30s..Will all depend if we get some breaks in the cloud cover..Plus warm front won't even been into the area yet..There still will be a small chance of a wintry mix....Saturday night..Warm front pushes through this should bring the end to the wintry mix..Cold front will also be pushing through by 00z Sunday so temps really won't have a chance to get as warm as they could have......Will run with a low around the middle teens.There will be a small chance for some light snow also...Side note...I might as well jump on the train with this one...This could be the first Jan in many years that we have not got up to the 32° mark,the way it's looking no 32° this Jan...I will have to do some research on this...Just to see when the last time this has happened...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

Sunday's temps still look to be in the middle 20s through out the area,still will keep snow chances alive as a Arctic cold front blast through the area...What to do with low temps for Sunday night and again Monday night,along with highs on Monday....Guidance has been to warm with these cold snaps we been having through out this winter..Trends with all the cold snaps would indicate to me to go colder than model guidance,just how cold to go well that is hard one..Sunday night close to zero should work out ok for the Southern areas....Northern areas will run with a few degrees below zero...Monday I will run with temps in the lower teens seems the way to run without much sunshine forecasted Still will be a small chance of some light snow around the area....Monday night temps around -5 should be ok for my Southern areas, while my Central and Northern areas should drop to around -10 or so...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....

Still will hold onto cold temps through this time frame..Will runs with highs in the lower to middle teens,while over night lows should have no problem relieving -15 to -1 through out this period....Forecast should remain rather dry during this period also....

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Temps still look rather cool for this time frame,unlike last week when models were hinting at a big warm up...Temps may get close to around the 30° mark on Thursday before the next cold front move in and cools us back off once again...Will through in a chance of mix percip as this appears to be close to the same set up as we are in right now...No big storm systems to effect the area through this frame,as it was looking last week we might have been dealing with a few,or very close calls..Not anymore..Thanks to a large system that is forecasted to move up the Eastern Coast States through the whole forecast period above.....So temps will still be below norms through out this period..No big shock there....

LONGER TERM FORECAST FEB 7 THROUGH SUNDAY FEB 15.....

Temps start this time frame out in the upper 20s to lower 30s...After the weekend temps drop back off as a few storm system could effect the area...With each passing one more Arctic air will be drawn South wards..So below norms temps still camping out over the area, as old man winter really loves this areas this year..If the long range models are correct we could be dealing with a few good size snow storms through this period!...We shall see on that....Again this is way out there and thing can and do chance in the long term forecast,as I have seen many times.....

Up and down temps, still below norms...Forecast below

A rather dull week ahead,with slowly warming temps..Followed by cooler temps,followed by warmer temps for the upcoming weekend....

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps at this 8 AM hour range from Middle tens below zero through our Central and Southern areas of MN, and WI...Northern areas of MN temps range from -20 to -30
Skies are clear....Very little wind to speak off attm.

SFC ANALYSIS...........

Weather charts this morning showing a large area of high pressure over the Northern plains and Great Lakes are,out towards the Eastern Coast States...Meanwhile we see a system getting it's act together over the Rockies....

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

High pressure will remain in control of out weather pattern through this time frame..This will keep all of the snow way to our South over IA...Temps will start the period on the cold side,however a slow warming trend begins Tuesday and last through Wednesday....Temps and Monday shall range from -2 to 5 with lows ranging from -25 to -15.. Tuesday temp warm into the teens with lows either side of zero...Wednesday shall see temps around the lower teens, maybe some of our warmer areas lower 20s...Low should remain above zero..I did run with a chance of snow/flurries in our Northern areas of MN as a system moves in from Canada...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Said system above moves along the MN/Canada border...This will spread in light snow and flurries across most of the FA Wednesday night into Thursday...
This will also drag a cold front back into and through the area by Thursday morning/early afternoon...Friday shall be dry with high pressure nearby...Wednesday looks to the warmer day of the work week...highs could range from the lower to middle 20s....Lows back into the single digits....Thursday highs lower to middle teens with lows dropping back below zero once again...Still temps will be below norms

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Will see another system move along the MN Canada border.Sunday/Monday.Should see about the thing as on Wednesday through Thursday...Temps still below norms

LONG TERM ( TUESDAY FEB 3 THROUGH TUESDAY FEB 10)

Looks to be an active weather pattern setting up over the FA through this time frame...Mainly towards the end of this period....
Saturday the 7 models showing a storm system moving in from the Southwest....This system will have enough cold air to produce snow....Sunday night through Tuesday,another system moves in the Southwest this system may drag enough warm air into the upper levels to produce a mix of percip...As of right now it looks like most of our WI FA will see mainly rain from this system..Then changing over to snow before ending....This system as the way it stands right now,could bring in a few thunderstorms to parts of WI...This is still a long ways out on the chopping board,so my confidence is really low attm in the long term....

Forecast

Large ridge of Arctic high pressure will remain in control of weather right through Friday..Weak system may kick off some light snow/flurries Wednesday night....

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps this morning have the coldest air over in our MN zones...-17 to - 25 are being reported at this hours,while in our WI zones temps range from middle teens below to -20..Here at the office temps is at -18 while the city of Rice Lake is reporting -14..Temps may drop a little more as the sun comes up...Skies are clear through the FA..

SFC ANALYSIS....

A 1042 MB high pressure over Southeast SD/Southwest MN.This high pressure extends well into Canada..The Arctic cold front that blasted through the area Thursday night is now ready to set sail out to sea,along the Eastern Coast states...Front dips through central areas of AL,MS,LA,and through the Southern areas of TX...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Rather dull weather pattern this coming work week,Most of the active weather shall remain in the far Western States and in the Southern States..Will see a chance of some light snow/flurries Wednesday night early Thursday morning as a cold front pushes through the area....Temps will be the coldest Sunday night with readings well below zero...-25 to -20 looks to be the to run through the entire forecast area...May see temps drop off a little more over our far Northeastern tip of MN...Temps start their climb towards the lower 20s as we head through the week...Low will climb to around the 10 degree mark or so.....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Still looks to be dry period and warmer temps...Temps could reach into the upper 20s to lower 30s across much of my FA.While far Northern MN temps flirt with the middle to maybe the upper 20s..On Sunday a system is forecast to move along the MN/Canada border..This will bring a shot of some light snow across most of the FA..Highs on Sunday are forecasted to fall back into the lower to middle 20s....

LONGER TERM (MONDAY FEB 2 THROUGH SUNDAY FEB 8)

Tuesday and Wednesday we will have to watch a clipper like system dropping out of Canada, this as of right now looks like the strongest system we have seen in sometime...We will also be watching a system get going over the Southern plains and Northern plains...Late in this time frame....This system could bring us a miss of precip as we will be under warmer air..With temps right around the 0c mark...However Thursday and Friday time frame looks to rather warm with temps from 0c to +4C.

Cold snap is here...Details below....

Here we go again right back into the Arctic deep freeze...Good news is shouldn't be as bad as the last one....Bad news is temps will remain below norms for the upcoming work week.With maybe a true Jan thaw in the longer term.

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps at this hour in the upper teens to lower 20s across the FA...Winds have picked up overnight,right now winds range from 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 to 25 MPH across the FA...Still have cloudy skies being reported in the SFC OBS with some light snow/flurries also being reported...

SFC ANALYSIS....

Arctic cold front has pushed through the area overnight.Frontal boundary is located over Far Northeast IL into Central IL,Meanwhile a weak area of low pressure is located over far Northeastern WI..Very strong high pressure is located over Northwestern Canada..How strong 1056 MBS for pressure reading......

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

High pressure building into the areas from Canada and departing low pressure and it's trof will give us some wind-chill problems as pressure gradients increase,Mainly this morning into the afternoon hours...Pressure raises of 1.0 to 2.0 MBS through out the forecast area should lead to winds around the 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH..Which as been recorded her at the weather center...Light snow/flurries should becoming to end by this late morning early afternoon.....Temps today will be falling so the highs have been reached this morning already...Tonight strong 1045 MB high pressure moves into far Northwestern ND,however it effect will be felt all across the area..Winds will lighten up and skies are forecast to clear off,this will set the stage for lows to fall from the -20 to -15 range..Saturday Arctic high pressure will had made camp for the rest of the weekend over the FA..High be hard pressed to get above zero most area under sunny skies...Temps should range from the -5 to +2 or so....Saturday night temps fall even colder than tonight...Just to be on the safe side I will cut guidance temps here...run with -25 to -18 through out the whole FA Sunday we will see yet another very cold day,once again temps will struggle to reach zero..Guidance showing above zero many areas,however I don't buy into that after looking at the trend all winter so far,so once again I got out the weed whacker and did some trimming...-8 to -1 looks to be a ok...Sunday night will range the temps to -18 to -12.....Wind may be lighten up,however with cold highs/lows it won't take much wind to produce wind chill readings -35 to -20 below...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT....

WAA does slowly kick into play as the Arctic high pressure pushes off to the Southeast..This will allow for a slow warming trend through out this time frame..Highs will bounce back to above zero while lows remain on either side of zero..By the end of this period highs are forecasted to be in the lower 20s while lows by Wednesday night drop to around 10 or so...A rather dull week ahead...This warm up will be like our last warm up with forecasted temps...

Thursday THROUGH FRIDAY....

We see a chance of some light snow/flurries come into play as a clipper like system moves just North of the area..Temps not to bad but still below norms...

LONGER TERM (JAN 24 THROUGH FEB 2)

Temps through this period should remain below norms with a chance of some off and on light snows/flurries

FEB 3 THROUGH FEB 8...

We start to see a nice warm up ..The first part of this time frame still rather cold..However by Friday the 6 th temps could warm close to 0C...Looks like temps from the 7 th , and 8th should be in the upper 20s to low 30s...As far as precip goes...We will have to watch a clipper like system for the 3rd it arrears like a strong one attm...If it is we could be dealing with a better chance of accumulating snows,models showing QPF around .25 to .50 across much of my central and Northern areas...Could this be another Dec 30 snowstorm?? To early to tell..Also will have to watch a system moving in from the West Southwest for late in this time frame...This could bring a mess of precip to the area....however once again this is so far out there it is nearly impossible to say what will transpire...We will watch though....

VIRTUAL TOUR OF THE WEATHER CENTER

Many of you have emailed me,asking what do the Weather Center consists of and what doe the Weather center look like....
I run 4 computers..Only three showing on the pictures, as the forth computer is just out of view of the camera....
That computer is used only for radar data,and my weather station...In the far left hand side you will see my laptop this also severs to run another radar program...This way I can have to radar programs to look at,and or I can have two different sites up and running without playing around to much...The laptop also severs has the heart of my storms chases..I can look at weather data while in the field, and or upload pictures and vids right to the computer it self...I will also be doing a special program this year...I really can't say to much more than that right now....Anyway the third computer in the middle is used for satellite data,and is also used to write my forecast on..Also used for this blog and my websites,and emails...The last computer on the far right is used for computer model data.profiler data....There you have had the break down on the Weather center..

How much snow has falling so far this winter ?

So how much snow has falling this winter so far, and were are we as far as ave winter snowfall....
This info is for Barron County only......
As everyone remembers from Oct through the end of Dec we had 40.75 inches of snow...So far this Jan we got 14.25 inches of snow, this does include the fast 1/4" we picked up this morning.....So 40.75 + 14.25 = 55.00 inches of snow so far this winter....
Ok on the ave we get 48 inches of snow in the winter...So we went above the normal snowfall for the winter,how much above normal are we...Lets do the math.....55.00" - 48.00" = 7"...So far we are 7 inches above normal for the winter....With still over 3 1/2 months left to go...Looking back on my winter forecast I posted back on Oct 28th....I forecasted above snowfall for the area, most areas have already hit that...So that verified rather fast,which I'm a little surprised..I think it would pan out until March,but that's great....
Looking at the temps...So far this winter we have been running below norms...I also forecasted colder than ave for the winter...So far this has been the case....This still can bust on me...All it will take is to get a few weeks of temps WAY above norms to bring the winter ave temps up...I still feel this winter is going to turn out colder than norm...That is colder than ave...Still feel there will be some warm periods through the rest of the winter as we head into FEB and MAR, however if we take the whole winter and ave it out I feel it will be a colder then normal winter...So far the temp forecast is working out great...The main question is will it hold up ? We shall find out soon enough..

Another Arctic cold snap on it's way...

This forecast package will mainly talk about the upcoming Arctic blast that is set to move into the area later this week...
Meanwhile we will deal with another shot of snow today...Then slightly warmer temps for Tuesday, and Wednesday...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....
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Temps at this hour still remain in the single digits with some 10 degrees being reported closer to the MN border...Radar is showing an area of snow through much of the area...Here at the weather center we just picked up a fast 1/4 inch of snow with one band that came through...Lows last night did drop below zero once again...

SFC ANALYSIS...

Arctic high pressure still in control of our weather..We see another shortwave/Trof coming down in the NW flow out of Canada.We also see out next shot of Arctic air building High pressure over Siberia/Arctic circle...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Shortwave/Trof is now working it's way South clouds have been on the increase through the early morning hours...Snow has started to break out through most of the FA....This shall keep going off and on,just like yesterday...Tonight system pulls away from the area light snow/flurries shall becoming to an end.Could see skies become partly cloudy to clear once again..Total snowfall amounts will be around the inch mark...While points to the North of Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties could see inch an half up to two inches....Temps going to be tricky...Will keep temps in the middle teens From a line from East of Burnett,Polk,and St.Croix Counties....Lower 20s from said line westward...May see some middle 20s closer to the MN border..Using say line for over night lows...Single digits found East of said line..If skies clear out temps could drop to below zero once again...Meanwhile West of said line temp drop to around 10...Once again if skies can clear out temps should drop to into the single digits above zero.....

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

Temps still on the tricky side..Swallow pool of Arctic air still in place and skies forecasted to be partly cloudy,along with the sun still at low angles...Thinking is temps shall be colder than model guidance...One has to realize that through out much of this winter and during our bout with clod air model guidance has be warmer that actual observer temps...
We see a warm front working its way across through ND/SD on Tuesday morning.Late in the day this front should be moving through MN..Tuesday night said warm front will be knocking on our door..By 12Z Wednesday warm front will have cleared all of WI,However we see our first in a serious of cold fronts move in late Wednesday evening /Thursday morning time frame.So lets pinpoint the temps...
Using the line above once again....Middle 20s on Tuesday look plausible to the East of said line...To the West of said line middle to upper 20s look like the way to run...Tuesday will keep temps in a range from the lower to middle teens...Wednesday....Again we shall use the same line.....Points East of line shall see upper 20s...Points West I will keep upper 20s until one get closer to the MN border, were here temps could reach to the lower 30s....Thursday I have decide to keep light snow chance alive do to the Arctic cold front moving in, along with a possibility of a shortwave moving in with the cold front...Models having some hard time with as of right now...Also some models trying to slow down the Arctic blast be 12 hours or so..I don't completely buy that just yet,however with the problems with the models, will keep Thursday's highs in the middle 20s...Lows Thursday night should drop to near zero with some spots going below zero...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Arctic air will become more established across the FA...Temps will be falling each day...We start of Friday with highs around the 10 to 13 degree mark...By Sunday temps will struggle to reach the middle single digits above...Lows will fall to the lowers teens below zero....

LONG TERM....(MONDAY JAN 26 THROUGH WEDNESDAY JAN 28)

Model showing the cold air lasting right through this period...Some disagreement showing up between the GFS and ECMWF as far as the coldest air setting up...GFS keeps it's to the North,While the ECMWF brings it into the area....Will run with ECMWF as this has been the model of choice for me just about all winter long,it also had a better handle on our last Arctic outbreak,and has kept the so called warmer air to the West of the FA...GFS has been a let down for most of this winter...In the start of each run right up until the last possible minute,then it will jump on the band wagon with other models....We shall see some chance of snow through this period..
LONGER TERM...(JAN 29 THROUGH FEB 4)

Looks to remain cold through this period also....With a chance of some snow...Models showing a couple of possible snowstorms to effect the area...Won't touch that with a 10 foot flag pole,,As this is way to far out there..Will watch it though...

Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the whole area

Here is a satellite image showing mostly to cloudy skies arcoss the whole area with a few breaks,however if one loops the images,they will see breaks fill rather fast. @ 2:24 PM..Click on it for full size

Update on today's snowfall so far

This update will only include the one inch snow reports...Way to many 1/4to 1/2
Looks like parts of Northern Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties have see the heavier of this snow..With one inch reports coming in from North of Luck to Fredric Clam Falls....North of Cumberland over North of Rice Lake(here at the weather center) than over to Brill over Exeland...Point north of there should have picked up and 1 1/2 inches of snow..Spooner coming in at that....Some two reports coming from Burnett County and Douglas county...Do feel this should be about what we see for the rest of today...May still add another trace to 1/2 inch up North.....

Snowfall reports from yesterday....

This also does appear on our S.A.R. page....

Snowfall amounts from yesterday's clipper...
Most of these come from the NWS LSR and some from our own weather observers...

WI....
1.4 inches 1 mile South of Rice lake...Barron County.

2.0 inches here at the office 6 miles NW of Rice Lake...Barron County...

Over by Bruce,Rusk County 3.5 inches...

Not in our FA but one of our weather observers in Clayton,Polk County reported 1.25 inches...

Iron County a total of 7 inches fell at Gile,

Hurley..Iron County came in around the 4 inch mark.

Park Falls in Price County came in at 3.1 inches..

Mercer in Iron County came in at 4.5 inches...

Poplar..Douglas County reported 3.0 inches...

MN area.....

Duluth..St. Louis County...1.5 inches...

Grand Marais...Cook County 8.0 inches....

For more snowfall reports...See the Duluth NWS LSR page....
Again some of these reports came from there, and some came from our own weather observers who also report to the NWS..

Not an easy forecast I have done,not the hardest either, but does rank up there though..

Forecast problems...Off and on snow chances through Monday...Warm up still in the cards,just not as warm as thought...Possible snow event coming late in the upcoming work week,then Arctic blast heading back into the area...
This is kind of a tough forecast as models really not been handling this swallow Arctic air sitting over mainly our WI area..Also middle range models and long term models keep play every forecaster's worst game of flip flopping back and forth...With that said will use what I have in front of me and throw in some gut feelings from time to time

Current Conditions....

A wide range of temps this morning...Over in MN temps range from the single digits up in our Northern areas..to the middle and upper teen across our Central and Southern areas..So lower 20s being reported in our far Western areas Hayward coming in at -16 while here at the office in Rice Lake we are down to -10....Over in WI...The Arctic air hold on tight....Lows range from the single digits to teens below zero...While the far Western part of WI temps just above zero...Looking at the satellite image IR..We see a sharp clearing line right through Western WI....And another of clouds ready to work in WI...Most MN reporting stations are cloudy with some light snow/flurries...Radar is picking up on the some of this...At any rate do except to see skies become cloudy in your area this morning if you are not already...

SFC ANALYSIS....
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This morning we see a warm front bisecting MN with a low pressure up in Canada...Yesterday's system over the Northeast part of MI,also a low pressure over IA,Meanwhile large ridge of high pressure out in the Western States....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Low over IA is forecasted to move into Southwest IL today,as this happen the warm front over MN will not be making headway to the East..Weak areas of trofs will be moving down in the Northwest flow through this time frame...This will give us a chance for off and one light snows..Will be lucky to see an inch of accumulation through this period.....I did not run with freezing drizzle though cross section from INL MN to HYR WI does show that possibility,along with upper air soundings across the area...
LES snow should become more problematic as we head through the day into Monday....Cold winds flowing over the warmer waters of Lake Superior should be increasing lapse rates along with heights...The main bulk of the snow should fall later this afternoon and lasting through the over night hours..Looks like the main area to see LES would be Iron County,maybe into Ashland County...Thinking is a good 3 to 6 inches should fall around Hurley to Gile areas...Points to the west of there should see less snowfall....Some of Lake Superior is ice covered so if we don't get the winds out of the North snowfall amounts will be less than forecasted....I did cut highs a tad through this period,gut feeling and past trends show temps aren't going to be as warm as some of the models are forecasting...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Look for a some what warmer period,not as warm as thought yesterday....Highs in the middle to upper 20s seem the way to run,while lows should be in the teens to single digits.....

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Here is where thing get very interesting...Were to start......Lets look at the ECMWF model first...We see a low pressure forming over Northeast CO/Southwest NE...This low is forecasted to lift towards the Northeast...Towards Southeastern WI low will be able to tap into Golf moisture as a high pressure is located over FL..Cold air will be in place through out the FA this will give our Central and Southern areas a shot at snow,however the heavy snow should remain South over Southern/Central WI per ECWMF...Looking at the GFS model....GFS keeps the track more South of the FA...With this track the FA may not see any snow just some light snows...So for now I have decided to run with light snow across the whole forecast area...Other shifts will have to watch this and make adjustments to ongoing forecast as needed...As there really is no model guidance at all...
One thing models are in agreement on is the Arctic blast headed this way....However we are seeing the flip flop game being played out by the models once again..Which in return forces us to play the flip flop game also far out in time really have no choice to play...By Tuesday models should be locking onto one solution,if not we sure will be!..One run the colder sir looks to stay out of the area then the next few runs models push the closer air into the area..This morning models keep the colder air locked up in Canada until Tuesday of next week(see below)
Don't worry if you like cold Arctic air you will still like this late week into weekend forecast,as some of the cold air does work into the FA...Temps by Thursday night should be back to the single digits below zero to teens below zero though the FA...High shall be in the lowers teens to the single digits....Here also cut temps a degree or two...

LONGER TERM....FRIDAY NIGHT JAN 23 THROUGH TUESDAY FEB 3

Friday night lows drop to a range of -24C to -16 C...High on Sunday mainly around -16c to -12C...By Tuesday we see temps drop to a range from -24C to -20C.....This Arctic snap is forecasted to last right in the last part of Jan/first part of Feb with a slight... warming in temps...As of right does look to be just as cold as the Arctic blast we had,might be a few degrees warmer...
As far as precip goes...Look like off and on lights snow ...Will have to watch Sunday into Sunday night for a snow event....

Updated forecast(longer term) Arctic outbreak on it's way once again!

This update forecast will talk about the upcoming Arctic blast along with a possible snow storm/blizzard....
This will focus on the time frame from Thursday through early next week,as I don't have time to go further out than that right now...
I have already been warning about this Arctic outbreak last week....At first models had the coldest part of the core more to the East/Northeast of the area...Sure it would have still been cold, but not as bad...However I have been noticing a change in each run...The GFS and ECMWF are showing more of a West and South ward trend with this...This would put the coldest core right back over the area..This Arctic out break looks to out last the one we are slowly getting out of.....If trend keep on like they have been this may be colder than the last one...One thing is for sure it looks to be just as cold,and lasting longer...

Now lets talk about a possible snowstorm/blizzard...First I will talk about each model...
Lets start of with ECMWF...Looking at the 00Z run we see the low pressure over Southern WI this would keep the heavy snow in my Central and Southern areas...However looking at the 12Z run...The low pressure is forecasted to move from ND/SD line toward the East/Southeast then Northeast along the Lake MI...This would keep the heavy snow in my Central and Northern areas as the track would work through the LA Crosse area then head Northeast towards Door County....
Lets look at the GFS model.....
Looking at the 06Z run we find the low pressure moving just North of the areas...Hence this will keep the heavy snow well North of the area....However looking at the 12z run...We find the low taken about the same track that the 12z ECMEF has...If that is the case, that would keep the heavy snow in the Central and Northern areas of the FA.....
It is way to early to even try to forecast amounts as this is into late next week.As one can see models still all over the place with this possible system...This is not written in stone in any shape or form...So this has a good chance of not happen either, however it will be something to watch over the next few days.....No matter what takes place the low will be a wind jammer and will also sever to draw more Arctic air back in place..We shall see the first Arctic front Thursday night...With temps going back below zero....

I just seen the Dultuth NWS is hinting at this also...

Forecast

Some light snow along with some freezing drizzle possible today through tonight...Warmer temps on tap for much of the upcoming working week,along with dry weather...Then back into the cold we shall dive...Not thinking the upcoming cold snap will be as cold as the one we are climbing out of....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning are a lot warmer than yesterday morning...Temps are mainly in the single digits above zero...We do see some 10°s showing up in our Western/Southwestern part of our MN FA......Radar is showing some light snow/flurries through out the area....Though it's not picking up on all of the light snow/flurries..SFC OBS at this hour showing light snow/flurries...no mixed precip as of yet..One can easily see where the cold front now sits with the SFC OBS...Won't go into details on that...

SFC ANALYSIS....
.
This early morning we find a 1006 MB low pressure over far Northwestern MN..Large are of high pressure over the Eastern and Southeastern states....Meanwhile large ridge building out in the Western States...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....

South winds between the high to our East/Southeast and low pressure to our Northwest has brought in warmer air to the FA...Low pressure is forecasted to move from Northwestern MN right through Central WI by 18Z today..This will keep the chance of light snow going through out the FA....Would think 1 to 2 inches will be possible up in the Northeastern areas of MN while around far Northern WI area could see 1 to 3 inches of snow...Looking at the cross section charts from INL MN to HYR WI...We could also see some off and on freezing drizzle mixed in from time to time...As we see a warm layer air between the 925 MB to 700 MB layer...Temps in said areas range from -12c to -10c....Colder air higher up in the 600 to 600 MB layer ranging from -14c to -24c..I did not add that wording to the forecast as I feel it wont be that much of a problem,however we will have to watch it...Meanwhile as the low moves through the area winds will be switching to the North/Northwest through out today......By 00Z low pressure will have moved to Western MI...Still will keep a small chance of snow going through tonight and Sunday through much of the FA...As we find a weak trof moving into and through the area...Temps today should be in the teens,lows tonight single digits to around 10 should do it...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.....

Large ridge of high pressure will take control of our weather...Should be a dry work week coming up...Temps will be rather nice,with highs ranging from the middle to upper 20s across our Central MN,and all of my WI FA...Will upper 20s to lower 30s across our far Southern areas of MN....Lows should mainly be in the upper single digits to the middle teens...However we will start to see a slow cool down as we end the work week.

LONG TERM FORECAST....(JAN 23 THROUGH FEB 2)

We will see temps drop to -12 to -8 C through out the whole FA...By 00z Saturday temps shall drop to -24C in our Far Northwestern areas of our MN FA..While the rest of MN and WI FA area temps will range from -16C to around -20C..By 06Z temps shall be around -24 C through out the whole FA..By 12Z Saturday look out as temps fall to around -28C to -24C..Looks like the Arctic air will hold strong through much of the this week With a slow warming trend towards the end of the week...By Monday Feb 2 we find temps warming to a range from -8 to -4.....As far as precip goes...We start the period on a dry side.This trend does seem to hold through this time frame...We may see some snow move into the area around the middle of this time frame...Won't worry about that right now...But get ready for another cold period as more Arctic air is set to move back into the area....

Ok I'm crazy!

Ok call me crazy now...Just that little time outside,my hands are now numb...I'm glad I didn't shave yet!....

What does -37 and boiling water = see below

I had to get pictures of this,though this has been many times by all of us....

Last update on this Arctic blast/snow chances/warmer temps

Last update on this very long Arctic blast...Warmer temps in store for the area with some snow accumulation also possible...Next Arctic blast on tap for late next week into next weekend....
Current conditions....
Temps are the coldest we have see over 15 years ago...Temps here at the office -35.2 right now..-34 over in Cumberland,-33 in Spooner...-35 in Dallas Rice Lake Airport now coming in with -29..Once again one can see the heat island effect taking hold....Over all the FA temps are in the upper twenties below zero to the around -30 below...With some areas hitting the middle thirties below zero...Winds are lighter this morning so wind-chill aren't that big of a deal...
SFC ANALYSIS...
This morning's map we see a 1046 MB high pressure over IL and Southeast MO....Warm front with a low pressure 0f 1021 over Southwestern ND...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....
Strong Arctic high pressure if forecasted to drift off into Southeaster IL...by 18Z today this will allow winds to become Southwest to South through out the day...This will allow return flow of warmer air into the air....Though temps will still be cold today...Will run with temps -5 to 1 above....Clouds will start to increase out ahead of the warm front and clipper system dropping Southeast into the area...Tonight we see the low pressure over Western MN,This system digs Southeast to around the Twin Cities..Then towards Southeastern WI....This will bring in a change of light snow to the FA.Tonight through early Saturday morning..Main areas for a 1 to 3 inches of snow will be points East of Central Barron County down towards Eau Claire County..Points west of said line should see .25 to maybe as much as .50.....Temps tonight should be either side of zero..Tomorrow temps warm into the middle teens above zero...Saturday night snow should have ended,may even see skies slowly clear out...Temps will drop to around 5 above...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....
One word for this time frame warm...Highs in the middle to upper 20s Central and Northern areas....Southern areas upper 20s to lower 30s....Lows Mainly around 8 to 12 above in the Central and Northern areas...While the Southern areas...10 to 15 above...
Skies through this time frame shall remain sunny to partly cloudy has RH values run below 45%....
Next Arctic blast still set for the end of the week into next weekend...More details on this in tomorrows forecast.....

One thing I forgot to post in the update below

We have been below zero for 58 to 60 hours so far..I will have to go back and check this out more to get the right hours,fast math puts us in that range.....That number of hours will only keep going up as we are locked under this Arctic air....

ARCTIC BLAST UPDATE...

Another update on this dangerously cold Arctic blast that we are currently in....The NWS has kept the WIND CHILL WARNING going through Friday noon.....
Current Conditions....
Temps have dropped to well below zero...Here at the office we are sitting at -25.8°....While Rice lake Airport is coming in with -19..That is mainly the heat island effect going on,as winds are from Northwest bringing the some what warmer city air over the Airport.....SFC OBS showing temps in the twenties below across my whole forecast area......Schools have been closing left and right,I would except to see more schools closing...Within the next hour...Though the latest I just heard just about most schools in Barron County have been closed.....Wind-chills...Are very dangerously cold..Ranging from -40 to -31 or so....All stations showing clear skies Satellite also confirms this...The cold air is really showing up nice on the Polar Stereographic IR4 and on the Thermal Infrared IR4 channel....
SFC ANALYSIS.....
Large 1047 MB high pressure over Northwest ND has control of our weather,,,,This thing has brought the coldest air of thus winter...See above.....Meanwhile out East we have a 1016 MB low pressure over the Eastern States...The Arctic front that came through Yesterday Morning is now from NC all the way through Central TX...Also bringing the coldest air thus far this winter to those areas...We see out next clipper system up in far Northern Canada...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through tonight...This will keep the Arctic air pumping into the area...So another cold day on tap....Pressure gradients will stay some what tight through out today and tonight..This will keep wind-chills ranging from the forties to thirties below zero..Might see a few reports of -50 attms .....By 18z today high pressure will sink to around Eastern NE /Western IA...This thing is forecasted to become stronger..Up to 1049 MBS..Highs today should be around 10 below....By 00z Friday/Tonight the high pressure will be over Western IA This will allow for temps to drop to from -30 to -25 tonight..Winds shall be a little lighter...So wind-chills not as bad,however still dangerous cold...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.....
Arctic high pressure will drift to Southeast MO this will allow for winds to become Southwest/South..WAA will be kicking in....Also we find a warm front over ND and SD...By 00Z Saturday,or later tonight we see the warm front reaching Western MN with a 1005 low pressure over Canada...This will set the stage for snow to enter the FA...By 12Z Saturday low is forecasted to be around Southwestern WI..How much snow is forecasted...Lets find out shall we...Will run with ECMWF and GFS...As other models don't seem to be handling the this system very well at all....Looks like the baroclinc line is going to set up through Central Barron County down through Eau Claire County....This would set the stage for a one to three inches of snow mainly for Points East of Central Barron County to Eau Clair County..Points West of this line may see .25 to .50 if they are lucky....Temps may be on either side of zero for the day..Lows shall drop to aroun -10 to -5 Friday night...Saturday temps warm to middle teens above zero....
LONGER TERM FORECAST.....
Warm air finally returns to the area this weekend,Mainly Sunday.....Some of the computer models are showing temps well into the 30s...I'm not sure I can buy into that...I will cut guidance values for our Central and Northern areas....middle to upper 20s seem more reasonable attm...While in my Southern areas could very well see temps into the middle 30s.....This warmer air is forecasted to last through out much off the next week.....Enjoy it while you can....Models still showing another Arctic blast coming in late next weekend and may hold through part of the week thereafter...We shall see......
SIDE NOTE...
Not only are schools closing things for tonight are now being cancelled....Best thing to do it to listen to one of the local radio stations for the updated list...As we here at the weather center don't have the time or will list closings....

Update on this cold snap....

This update will be fast....More tonight.....
I see most News/radio media and the NWS now are in line with my thinking With this Arctic blast we are in///Temps today will remain below zero and should fall later as North/Northwest winds pick up...I'm still thinking about cutting temps more for Friday...More on that tonight...
Tonight and Thursday temps should have no problem falling off to -25 to -30 through out much of my Central and Northern FA areas....
We do get into some warmer air this weekend and into next week....Ok you heard it here first....
Another Arctic blast is setting up for late next week into the weekend....Once again more on that tonight....

UPDATE ON THE ARCTIC BLAST

Arctic air has a hold of the FA...This will be the trend right through the end of the week..With slightly warmer air for Friday into Friday night...

Once again I don't see eye to eye with the NWS and news and radio media....But one has to look at the trend of this Arctic blast along with computer models...One would see some of the lesser reliable models,and only one of the reliable model, do point towards warmer air,however most of the models showing the cold air hanging tight.The trend of this Arctic air has been doing rather well,my forecasts have shown this...Also interesting News media and yes the NWS did jump on the band wagon to show temps remaining below zero for today..So I see no reason why to change the forecast to bring tomorrow's temps above zero..(I would hope temps climb above zero)..So for Wednesday don't look for temps above zero unless you are in my Southern FA..After this clipper tonight moves through temps may warm to around -5 in the early morning if we are lucky,however temps will start to fall in the afternoon....
Temps still well below zero this afternoon....-10 here at the office -7 at the Rice Lake airport...Heat island effect working it's magic,just like it did last night...Here at the office temps dropped to -21.5 while at the airport it was -18....
Temps will remain below zero to Friday when some WAA kicks....Tonight through Thursday night temps repeating once again temps will remain below zero for highs....Over night lows tonight may be a few degrees warmer than last night with a clipper passing way to our Southwest once again...This will cause clouds to increase and should keep temps up some....Chance of snow will also move back into the area tonight...Could see less than inch...Unlike Monday's clipper that brought in 1.5 inches here at the office and Spooner..While South of Rice Lake 1.30 was reported.....Wednesday night and Thursday night temps will range from -25 to -30......Warmer air is in the forecast Friday temps should be a few degrees either side of zero..Saturday we should see around 10 above...Sunday lower 20s possible.... I don't buy into the lower 30s for Monday not just yet...20s seem to be more reasonable..

Very Cold Arctic air set to move in.

Arctic air is set to pour into the area starting this afternoon...This will come in two shots..First one starting today,the second shot coming in Wednesday...Highs after today will not make it above zero ! Lows will range from -20 to -20 with some areas getting down to -40...Details below....Will have to deal with a shot of snow this morning...Then again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.....
CURRENT CONDITIONS...
Temps ranging from 10 above at New Richmond to -6 at Hayward..Here at the Rice Lake office we are now at 3 above after an over night low of -9...Skies are mostly cloudy...Radar is showing returns however SFC OBS from stations and weather observers showing no snow reaching the ground just yet...Highest DBZ in my FA is around 13...With that most of the returns are just virga...
SFC ANALYSES.....
This morning's weather map we find a 1012 MB Low pressure over Western IA...We see a strong 1044 MB high pressure over Southern Alberta Canada....Finally we find out next trouble maker sitting over the Golf of a Alaska...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....
Low pressure over IA is forecasted to move into Southeastern IA by 00Z Tuesday,By 06Z Tuesday the low shall pushed into Southern MI....Meanwhile high pressure will be building into the area from Canada..Pressure gradients will increase between this two features..Looking at the 3 hour pressure tendency off the RUC....We see starting this afternoon pressure tends will start to raise from .5 MB/HR to 2. MB/HR..The highest pressure raise will be in Southwest/Southern MN This lines up rather well to were the NWS has Winter storm warnings and Blizzard warnings ...This would also lead one to believe winds should be in the sustained range of 20 to 30 MPH with wind gusts up to 40 MPH..This afternoon into this evening.....Up in our neck of the woods,this would mean winds of 10 to 15 MPH later this afternoon and picking up to 15 to 20 MPH tonight with some gusts up to 30 MPH...Wind-chills today won't get to out of hand until later...Most of the day we should see wind-chill values from -10 to around -1 or so....Tonight....light snow should have ended,if not it will.Thinking is most of the FA shall see 1 to 3 inches by time all is said and done...My Northern WI areas may not see no more than a trace..Though some LES is going to possible, the window won't be open to long to get and keep a good fetch of warm air off the lake...Skies will become clear,wind shall remain rather nasty,however should begin to decrease after the clearing line moves through.....Temps for today some what tricky..As some of my FA starting off below zero while the Southern areas starting off in the middle single digits....So I'm going to run with a range of temps 8 to 15 should cover that rather nice...This afternoon temps could start to fall as winds pick up from the North/Northwest...Over night lows -20s North to - teens Central and -12 to -9 South....Tuesday high pressure will control our weather..Under sunny skies and light winds...Temps will not get above zero most areas...Southern FA shall...Central and Northern parts won't....Our next system dropping South out of Canada will kick in some WAA very weak though...This will also bring a chance of some more light snow to the area...However this system is forecasted to take a track more South then the current one,which track more South than what was forecasted early yesterday morning...So as of right now I'm really to thrilled about this system....Lows Tuesday night should be in the same range as Monday night lows...Highs for Wednesday -5 below Central and Northern areas to around either side of zero in the Southern areas...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
The coldest air thus far this winter will settle into the area Strong High pressure is forecasted to build into the area..Pressure readings on this high are remarkably high...1050 to 1052 MBS....Lows through this period shall range from the teens below zero in my Southern areas...Central and Northern areas twenties to thirties below zero...Some spots could dip to below -40 at a time...
Temps will remain well below zero for highs in the Central and Northern areas..Single digits below in the Southern areas....
Friday computer models do show some WAA moving into the area...I'm not 100% thrilled about that so will keep temps below zero Central and Northern areas..As these areas will have almost a 20 to 30 degree raise to get to zero.....Could happen but I'm not seeing it just yet...Also Friday night lows in the Central and Northern areas are forecasted to dip to the upper teens below zero to maybe -20...Southern areas could see temps closing in on high barley above zero Friday with low not dropping much.....
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
The cold snap is forecasted to break...So warmer air on it's way....Temps on Saturday I'm going to hold them down below model guidance...Will keep them in the upper single digits to around 10 in the Central and Northern areas and around the middle teens Southern areas for highs...Low will run with either side of zero Saturday night....Sunday highs may be in the middle to upper teens Central and Northern areas...To around twenties in the Southern areas....
LONGER TERM...JAN 17 THROUGH JAN 25....
Long range models are hinting at temps going above norms for this time frame...Also precipitation look to below norms....Will we make it to our aver snowfall amounts for the year ?.....We shall see.....

Perigee Moon

Last night was and will be the biggest and brightest full moon of this year..The moon was 14%wider and 30% brighter...So I had to get out and get some pictures..This was the one that really stood out so here it is...Click on the picture to see full size!

***MAJOR ARCTIC ON STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEK AHEAD***

Forecast discussion will revolve around the Arctic blast that is posed to move in and make camp over the area for the upcoming work week....Will talk about snow for Monday...
No time for current conditions this morning....
SFC ANALYSES...
This mornings charts we find a 1018 MB low pressure over Central MN..We see our next trouble maker over the British Columbia Canada....This feature will be the main interests as this will sever to give the FA a shot of snow,however the most important thing this system is going to do,it will open the Arctic gates and draw very cold air into the FA....Lets get right to it....
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....
Low pressure currently over Central MN is forecasted to dive into Southeastern IA by 18z today...This will produce some off and on snows through out the morning hours...Thinking is snow should end by middle to late afternoon...Little in the way accumulations forecasted...Will bring snow back to life for tonight as the next clipper system starts to move towards the area..
Monday...
06Z Monday we see the low pressure dropping into Central parts of ND..By 12Z Monday the low should be around Southwest MN...By 00z Tuesday the low should be around Southeastern WI.This has some good lift and a little more moisture to work with Will peg snowfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches in our Northern areas of MN,and WI...Our Central and Southern zones of MN,and WI should pick up 2 to 4 inches..Strong 1043 MB Arctic high pressure towards the Northwest,and with the low pressure to our South than Southeast pressure granites will really increase...Winds could gust up to 25 to 30 MPH through out much of the FA later Monday.This will lead to blowing and drifting snows..Temps should slowly fall from their morning highs in the teens....
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....
Arctic high pressure will control the weather through this time frame...Skies will clear out this will allow the first shot of Arctic air to dive South on strong Northwest/North winds...Once again winds could gust up to 25 to 30 MPH across the FA,,With temps falling from -20 to -17 wind-chills will become the main topic of interest...Wind-chill values could fall to near -60 in our Northern areas of MN..-50 to - 40 will be common through out the rest of the FA....
TUESDAY....
Models showing another,but weaker clipper moving South...This one appears it will track more to the Southwest...So not to thrill about snowfall attm...Plus with the colder and drier air in place it will be hard to produce any good snowfall amounts...However this system will ensure even colder air to drain into the area...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....
Very large and very strong Arctic high pressure will build into the area..This high pressure is forecasted of 1050 MBS or so by most computer models...This is when the coldest air of the season will settle into the FA....
Temps through the middle and long term period (Monday through Thursday) will not climb above zero...Over night lows -20s to -30s along with a few areas getting into the -40s....
Some warmer air may be on tap for the upcoming weekend...We shall see....

HWD issued for Arctic outbreak

****MAJOR COLD ARCTIC OUTBREAK***
This HWD is for the whole forecast area,will be focus around the major Arctic outbreak for next week.....

A few clipper like systems will pass through the area this weekend into Monday,with each passing system they will sever to draw down very cold air of the Arctic circle...Arctic high pressure will build into the area starting Monday night and lasting right through weeks end....This cold snap could be the coldest we have seen since 15 years ago....This will also be a prolonged event... Temps will have a hard time getting out of the teens below zero for highs...If we are luck some areas may be basking in single digits below....Lows will pummel from a range of -30s to -20s....If computer models pan out right we could easily see over night lows drop into the -40s....Wind-chill may be a problem from time to time also!
This weekend would be a good time to prepare for this very cold outbreak...Check batteries in your cars/trucks...Would not be bad idea to stock up on some extra food in case you are not able to get out...Fill up some water jugs in case you water pipes freezes up...
During the cold snap...
If you must travel make sure you have a winter safety kit in you car/truck..If you car/truck becomes disable,stay with it..If you have a cell phone call for help.don't try to walk to get help..Many people freeze to death each year by doing this...Check up on Family, friends,neighbors,and older people...Keep your kids indoor as much as possible,at the bus stop make sure they are bundle up..It will only take a few minutes for any exposed skin to freeze...If you lose power/heat,best thing to do is stay with a family member or friends...If you must work outdoors try to do it in the afternoon hours when temps will be some what warmer.
This will be a very dangerous cold snap for everyone..

MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK ON IT'S WAY

This forecast discussion will mainly focus on the Arctic outbreak coming next week...Ready or not this could be the coldest air that we have see in 15 years...This will also be a prolonged outbreak....Will have to get through some snow chances in the near term...

Current Conditions...

A cold morning...Temps are well below zero through out the FA..Skies for the most part range from clear to partly cloudy...Wind-chills 0 to -19 through out parts of the area...

SFC ANALYSES...

This morning's SFC charts we see a low pressure over East Central MO/Western IL....We also see a 1032 MB high pressure over far SD/Northern NE..Looking up into Canada we find out next clipper of interest up in the far Northern part of Alberta..So what does this all mean for the FA...Lets find out shall we....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Low pressure is forecasted to remain well South of the area...As it moves into the TN/OH Valleys...High pressure is forecasted to remain in control of our weather through early tonight...This will bring cool temps again tonight should see below zero most areas..WAA kicks in for Sunday this will allow temps to be a few degrees warmer that Saturday,ahead of the next clipper type system..By Sunday 1020 MB low pressure should be over Northwest MN with a trof reaching South wards to KS.Will bring in a chance of snow for tonight and hold onto through Monday..

MONDAY....

By Monday said low should be over Lake Superior...This will keep some light snow going...Not to thrilled about accumulations attm..However if things all pan out we could see 1 to 4 inch accumulation through our Southern MN and most of our WI FA.....Will keep any eye on it.....We also see another clipper like system dropping in from Canada...This one here take a track through right through Central ND and SD..Then into IA...That track would keep most of the light snows to our South..However will run with light snow wording in the forecast....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

Here go with the major Arctic air outbreak that I have been preaching about for about two weeks now....I just can't get over how good the long range models have been doing with this outbreak of very cold air...Nothing hasn't really change enough to make me rethink this.....GEM,GFS,and ECMWF models for the most part agree on strength and placement of the Arctic high pressure...This just remarkable!....By early Thursday 1053 MB high pressure will be just off to our West over the ND/SD...This high pressure for the most part just sits in the same areas and get stronger...Up to 1055 MB as it closes in on Western MN..This will ensure us of winds right off the Arctic circle...I hate to say this,we may have to lower temps even more than where we have them now....-40s are not going to be out of the realm...Looks like some records are going to be smashed or darn close to being smashed through much of this time frame...Highs will struggle to reach the middle teens below zero to single digits below zero...Lows 20 to 30 below will be common...40s below are looking better with each passing computer runs...Will have a HWD issued for this....
Might see a break in the cold air Arctic air on Friday before we get slammed right in the face once again next weekend through early next week......

ARCTIC OUTBREAK FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK......

This forecast I will talk about the Arctic air that will bring battery draining,pipe bursting,finger numbing cold to the area...Not only will this cold snap effect us,it will effect about 3/4 of the Country...

Jan 10 through Jan 16....

First shot of cold air will come into play for tonight through Saturday night...This will not be as bad as to what we will see next week....Departing clipper will draw down colder air through Saturday night Lows tonight should have no problem dropping to below zero,with clearing skies and light winds shall set the stage for most of the area to be around -7 North to -1 South....Saturday under sunny skies temps shall be in the teens above....WAA kick back in ahead of a next clipper system this will help keep temps just on either side of zero...Sunday through Monday next clipper system will draw in warmer air...Along with a chance of snow...Temps will be the warmest on Sunday with upper teens,some of my Southern areas could be into the lower 20s....Late Sunday a cold front is forecasted to plow through the area...Temps will fall into the single digits above zero...Only to push into the upper single digits for Monday...Here is where the turn Arctic blast sets in....Monday night under mostly clear skies temps will drop like a rock to -12 to 10 through the area as strong Arctic high pressure takes control of the weather for the rest of this time frame...Highs through Thursday will be very lucky to climb close to zero...-5 to around -1 looks to be the best way to run with this so far....Lows will drop -20 to -15 through out much of the FA....I would not be surprised to see lows getting closer to -30 to -25 with highs in the teens to upper single digits below zero...
Lets break this down even more with adding in computer model data....

By 00Z Tuesday GFS model showing temps of -16C...That for the most part cover much of my FA..Maybe the far Southern areas will see temps -14 to -12C..In my far Northern areas temps drop down to around -20C...By 06Z temps drop to around -20C for all of my FA with some -24C -30C dropping into the Central and Northern Areas By 12Z Wednesday temps area forecasted to be around the -24C through out much of the FA...-20C a tad warmer in my far Southern areas(if you want to call it warmer)......By 18Z Thursday temps warm back up to -20C through the whole FA...By 06Z Friday we find temps ranging from the -16C to -12C across the FA..That will be short lived as the -20C take hold once again by 12Z Friday..
So how long does this Arctic blast keeps us in the deep freeze?

Lets look ahead from Saturday Jan 17 through Sunday Jan 25....
We start the period cold...Temps on 00Z Saturday will range from -16C South to -24C Central and North....By 12Z Monday we see temps warming from -16C to around -12C..By 00Z Tuesday temps warm from -8C to around -4C..12Z Tuesday temps are forecasted to be around 0C..By 00Z Thursday temps fall back to a range from -8C to -10C...By 00Z Sunday temps fall to -20C to -30C once again.So maybe a little break in the cold air before it hits us in the face towards the end of this forecast cycle...

If this all works out we will be dealing with the coldest air thus far this winter....Some indications are pointing to a near, if not a record break cold period....I did not run with that just yet...However will see what happens with the models this weekend...As of now most of the long range models are forecasting this ...Something one might want to think about,and start to get ready for this dangerous Arctic outbreak!As this seems to be a prolonged cold snap!

frost pic

After hitting -20 below last night..I was greated with jack frost on my windows...Had to get some pictures....Click on pictures for large size.

Some facts for Barron County,and the snowfall amount thus far the year...

After working on this report for the last two weeks,I finally got it done...Would have been done sooner however do to some storm storms,I just didn't have the time....
This information is for Barron County Only!
Coldest month..No surprise is Jan...Mean ave daily max temp is 13.8° Mean daily ave min temp is 8.5°
The hottest month...July...Mean ave daily temp is 79.0° while the mean daily min is 56.0°
Barron County averages 32 inches of rain per year...We average 48 inches of snow per year...
Lets break this down even more...Lets go month be month.....

Jan....Daily ave high is 20.4...Daily ave low is -1.7...Ave precip is 1.00...Ave snowfall..11.75...

Feb.........................26.8...........................3.8...................... .82........................... 7.4

Mar.......................39.1...........................17.8..................... 1.82..........................9.3

Apr........................56.3..........................31.6......................2.69..........................2.6

May......................69.2.........................43.0........................3.29..........................0.0

Jun.......................77.3.......................52.0...........................4.18.........................0.0

Jul.......................82.0.........................57.4.........................3.96.........................0.0

Aug......................79.0......................54.8..........................4.44............................0.0

Sept.....................69.2......................46.3........................4.29............................0.0

Oct......................58.1.....................35.6..........................2.69.......................... 0.4

Nov.....................40.0....................22.7............................1.68.........................5.0

Dec....................24.4.....................6.3...........................1.29............................11.6

So lets see how our snow fall from Oct 08 through Dec 08 lines up with the chart above.....
Oct we saw 2.5 inches of snow..So that would bring us above ave for Oct...
Nov we saw....4 inches of snow....One inch below norm...
Dec...We saw whooping 34.25 inches of snow...This is way above ave...So far this would bring the season snowfall amount to 40.75 inches for that time frame...If we throw in the 4 inches we got so far in Jan 09...that would bring us up to 44.75 inches so far this winter....We are only 3.25 inches away from hitting our snowfall for the season of an ave of 48 inches....What is really interesting is if we don't get any more snow we would be 3.25 below the norms for the winter...It's highly unlikely, however it could happen...I have seen this happen some years..We get almost of ave snowfall for the year,then the rest of the winter turns dry and we end below norm in the snowfall dept...Not saying this will be the case..I'm saying it would not surprise me if it does happen, just like it won't surprise me if we go way above ave in snowfall this winter...

Forecast...Cold and more cold

Forecast problems...None....Cold temps a chance of some light snow Tuesday into Wednesday...Off and on bouts of Arctic Air through short term.middle,and long term forecast periods...See SAR for the snowfall totals through out the FA...That will be out shortly...

Current Conditions....

Temps have dropped off last night...Temps at this hour range from middle teens below zero in Western and Central MN FA,While the Eastern areas remain above zero...In my WI FA temps are in the teens to around 20 above...Have been seeing them drop though......Radar is showing some returns up in the ST.Louise ,Lake,and Cook Counties of MN...The highest DBZ is up to 27 Some returns also showing up in Bayfield,and Douglas Counties of WI..Here at the office in Rice Lake..We do have some light snow/flurries..Radar is not picking up on that however...SFC OBS reporting clear to partly Cloudy skies across much of our Central and Western areas of MN...Over in WI SFC OBS showing cloudy skies ,with flurries being reported in the city of Rice Lake...Winds generally from the West/Northwest...

SFC ANALYSES...

SFC charts this morning show a low pressure over western parts of IL,With a trof over Eastern WI to a low pressure system over Lake Superior, meanwhile 1032 high pressure sitting over SD with another high pressure area of Southern Canada....

Today through Monday....

System that brought all the heavy snow to the FA will keep tracking Eastwards today/ridge of high pressure builds into the area,this will allow skies to become mostly sunny by late morning early afternoon...Will keep clouds and some light snow going over far Northeast MN for today,as that area is still close to the low pressure....Pressure gradients should slack up as we head through the day,so winds should become lighter...Temps are at their highs for today...We will see them drop off through out the day...

Monday night through Wednesday...

A warm front starts to move into the area..We also find a 996 low pressure over Northern MT with a trof reaching down to another low pressure over Eastern CO..By 12z Tuesday warm front should have cleared just about the whole FA..Low dives into Southeastern ND By Wednesday said low will have moved onto Southeastern WI....This will brag another cold front through the area....This system is much weaker and with the cold dry air in place not much moisture for it to work with...So very little in away of snow accumulations will be forecast.......

Thursday through Friday...

We get a break in the action on Thursday..Next system is forecasted to bring another shot of snow to the area starting Thursday night into Friday..Again with the cold dry air in place don't think there will be to much in away of snow accumulations..Though this was will need to watch,As both GFS and ECMWF agree on the path and strength along with other factors...

Longer term....Jan 10 through Jan 20....

Will see off and on snow chances through out this time frame...Arctic air will keep pushing into the FA with some warming before the Arctic moves back in....Most of this period temps should avg to below norms

UPDATED FORECAST

THIS UPDATED FORECAST IS FOR MY BLOG FA ONLY!!!
After looking at the lastest computer runs,I have decided to knock down the snow totals...Here is how its looking...
Points South of a Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties Will be knocked down from 2 to 5 inches of snow possilbe...Points to the North of said line could pick up as much as 3 to 7 inches of snow....Might see some 8 inch reports North of a Cumberland to Rice Lake line...
Point South of Southern Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties could pick up 1 to 3 inches of snow...
AGAIN THIS IS FOR MY BLOG FA,MY OTHER FORECAST REMAINS IN TACKED! Time to head back out on the lake!

MY AFD/(at the end broke it down to my blog FA)

****MAJOR WINTER STORM***
This discussion will focus around the today's/tonight's major winter storm.....

SFC ANALYSIS...

This morning we find a departing high pressure over Southeastern MI....Our winter storm taking shape over the great plains....
Lets get right into this mess, shall we...

Today through Tonight....

SFC low is forecasted to dive into Eastern NE meanwhile an inverted trof will reach Northward from low to Western MN up into Canada..By 18z today the low will have moved to Southwestern IA/Northwestern MO.Inverted trof pretty much located in the same area...By 00z Sunday said trof will bisect my MN FA getting ready to enter Western WI...Low pressure will have dived into North Central MO...SFC high pressure is forecasted to build into Western ND/SD. By 006z inverted trof will have cleared most of my MN FA,except far Northeastern MN,and my far Eastern WI FA...SFC low is forecasted to move Northeast into Northeast MO/Western IL...By 12z Sunday said low should be on IN's door step...Inverted trof will have clear the whole FA,in fact should be clearing all of WI by this time frame...SFC high pressure is forecasted to build into SD,pressure gradients between the low and high will bring gusty winds to the FA tonight and through Sunday..
Lets get into some of the finer details..of this...NAM model showing Convergence pushing out of the Dakotas into Canada,though Good mid level frontogenesis moves into area....This is going to set the stage for heavy snows through out much of the FA,However our Southern areas,Mainly WI will have to be watch as if the trend on the models keep showing forcing more to the North we may have to downgrade the snow fall amounts....My main area of concern for this will be from a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties of WI..Over through the twin Cities area and points west from there...We may have to knock the total storm totals here down to 4 to 5 inches maybe less if trend keeps up over the next few model runs...Will still run with best areas to pick up the heavier snows from points North of said line...Where parts of said Counties and North of there could pick up a foot or more of snow...Meanwhile along our North shore of MN LES will enhance the synoptic snows..Here we could easily see 10 to 19 inches of more of snow...Rest of the MN,WI FA should be in the 8 to 12 inch range as a rule.....We still need to watch our Southern zones to see if models are going to keep up with what they started or if it was just a messed up run we see...

Sunday...

Snow will be ending through much of the FA...Some areas should see skies become partly cloudy as we head through the day...
Arctic air will be felt through out the area....Long term forecast in tomorrow's update....


MY Local Blog FA below...

Lets get into some of the finer details..of this...NAM model showing Convergence pushing out of the Dakotas into Canada,though Good mid level frontogenesis moves into area....This is going to set the stage for heavy snows through out much of the FA,However our Southern areas will have to be watch as if the trend on the models keep showing forcing more to the North we may have to downgrade the snow fall amounts....My main area of concern for this will be from a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties of WI..We may have to knock the total storm totals here down to 4 to 5 inches maybe less if trend keeps up over the next few model runs...Will still run with best areas to pick up the heavier snows from points North of said line...Where parts of said Counties and North of there could pick up a foot or more of snow ...We still need to watch our Southern zones to see if models are going to keep up with what they started or if it was just a messed up run we see...Just can't stress this enough...For now will run with the forecast I had issued yesterday...I may very well end up downgrading snow totals as we get closer to late this afternoon or early evening hours...I might end up knocking snow amounts down through out my whole FA if models show a more Northward push of forcing and lift and moisture advection,along with drier air that may work into the area...We will watch it all to see how this will play out....

Sunday...

Snow will be ending through much of the FA...Some areas should see skies become partly cloudy as we head through the day...
Arctic air will be felt through out the area....Long term forecast in tomorrow's update....

snowfall amount so far this winter

Had some extra time to play around with this winter's snowfall amount for my area....After last night's 1 inch of snow this brings my totals up to 38.75 inches so far this winter....With a good deal of it on the ground...36.25 inches on the ground...Very deep snow pack...Good year for skiers and snowmobiles,and for anyone who loves snow...

website updated

This morning I updated my website...The main update was to add the Dec 30 winter storm pictures and a small write up on the storm....
www.storm-chaser236.com

Forecasted snow amounts

Forecasted snow totals from Saturday through early Sunday morning..

Purple areas 10 to 12 inches will be possible,with some higher amounts....

Red areas 4 to 8 inches possible with some spots maybe seeing 10 to 12 inches...

Yellow areas...3 to 6 inches maybe one or two 7 inch reports might see an 8 inche report,highly unlikely attm...

Lime green 2 to 4 inches possible...

Light blue 1 to 3 inches possible...

Winter storm heading this way once again.

Here we go again,another winter storm...But this should be no surprise as I have been talking about it over the last few days...
Forecast problem will be mixed precip and snowfall amounts...Hint looks like points South of a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties will be have more sleet,in turn holding down snowfall amounts.Points North of said line should see mainly all snow and in turn will have the highest amounts of snow once again...

SFC ANALYSIS...

High pressure building into the area from the west...System that had effected Northern areas with snow yesterday well to our East....Our winter storm now coming on shore in the Northwestern States....

Today Through tonight...

High pressure will be in control or our weather,though with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies temps won't get much above the middle teens today..18 z Friday 985 MB low pressure is forecasted to be in Central MT,while the high pressure sits darn near over head...High pushes off to Southeastern WI later tonight about 00z time frame...Meanwhile strong low pressure pushes into Southeast MT/Northeastern WY...Temps tonight will be in the single digits despite the increase in clouds..

Saturday through Sunday....

By 12z Saturday the low is forecasted to drop into Northeast NE...By 00z Sunday the low then drops into MO before heading back Northeast to Southern WI..While this does this an inverted trof will work into the area..Strong forcing is forecasted by the models once again...The models are slowly starting to show more cold air...However still warm enough air aloft to keep mixed precip in this forecast....Lets break this right down....Points South of a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties will see more mixed precip..This will hold down the snowfall amounts...3 to 6 inches of snow do look possible for them areas..Would not be shocked to see a few 8 inch reports...To the North of said line,mainly all snow will fall and the best forcing once again sets up in them areas and North of there...So 4 to 8 inches will be likely in them areas...Would not be shocked to see a few 10 to 12 inch reports from said areas......Sunday snow ends but arctic air will blast into the area causing blow and drifting snow...Map will be out shortly....
No time for long term forecast attm...See below for that as it has stayed pretty much the same...

First forecast of 2009

Forecast problems.....Possible snowstorm this upcoming weekend...Then off and on snow chances through the middle,and long term...Bouts of Arctic air in short,middle and, long term...

Current Conditions...

Temps have warmed up through out last night...Temps are in the lower to middle teens across the area..Radar showing some snow over my Central and Southern areas...Looking at the SFC OBS no snow being reporting attm...DBZ on radar showing only 10 to 17..More snow showing up in MN DBZ up to 25...Light snow/flurries are being reported at some stations...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1030 MB high pressure over the OH Valley...Meanwhile 999 low pressure Just North of NE with it's tending cold front reaching into Western MN ATTM..We also see our weekend system about ready to come on shore in the Northwestern States...

Today through tonight....

WAA has kicked in during the over night hours...Temps did raise through out the night....Pressure gradients have increased from the departing high pressure to our Southeast,and the incoming low pressure to our Northwest....Southerly winds have brought in warmer temps over night...Do except to see temps slowly fall after a cold front pushes through.
today.... Low pressure is forecasted to move along the MN and Canada border today and tonight...By 18z today the low should be around the tip pf MN Cold front will be pushing out of MN into my FA..By 00z Friday said low shall be North of the Western part of Lake Superior one cold front would have already pushed through the FA well into Eastern WI..Meanwhile another cold front will drop do South into the FA....Most of the energy will be found well to our Northwest over in Northern MN..The FA could see some off and on light snows through the day...I'm to thrilled about seeing to much in the way of accumulations...Just to be safe I will keep the same forecast as yesterday and run with .50 to some spots picking up close to 2 inches..Winds will increase as they switch to the Northwest this will cause blowing and drifting of the snow that we picked up over the last few days....Tonight the light snows should be over may see some breaks in the clouds...Temps will dive down to either side of zero as another shot of Arctic air moves in...

Friday...

A break in the snow...High pressure builds into the area,this will ensure us of a mostly sunny day,as RH sits around 30 to 35 %...Winds will slowly ease up as we fly through the day...Temps will be hard pressed to get into the middle teens...

Friday night through Saturday night....

Friday night we see our next trouble maker moving towards the are....So will increase clouds,may also be a chance of light snow moving in,As WAA kicks back in....By 12z Saturday we see a low pressure over Far Northwest IA with a trof reaching Northwest towards and low pressure over far Northeast ND..This whole complex is forecasted to move do East through the period...Saturday problems to come into play..SFC temps will be cold enough to support all snow,however looking at the upper levels warmer air is forecasted to move in..So this may cause some freezing rain/sleet for a time...I think that remain South of Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties lines..Point North of there should remain all snow with a brief chance at some mixed precip....Looks like the heavy snow will fall North of the area,up in Northern MN...We still might pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow...Still to far out there to pin point that...Models still not seeing eye to eye on things...So will see what happens with the next few runs....

Sunday through Monday night...

Cold period with highs around the lower to middle teens...With lows from -10 to +3...other than that is should be a quite time frame.....

Longer term...Jan 6th through Jan 17 th.....

Still looks like off and on snow chances like we have been seeing over the last few weeks....Computer models still showing off and on bouts of Arctic air through this time frame...Still around the 16/17 th looks like the Arctic air is going to become well established,with the coldest reading thus far this winter..This may be the long lasting Arctic outbreak...We will see...