MY AFD/(at the end broke it down to my blog FA)

****MAJOR WINTER STORM***
This discussion will focus around the today's/tonight's major winter storm.....

SFC ANALYSIS...

This morning we find a departing high pressure over Southeastern MI....Our winter storm taking shape over the great plains....
Lets get right into this mess, shall we...

Today through Tonight....

SFC low is forecasted to dive into Eastern NE meanwhile an inverted trof will reach Northward from low to Western MN up into Canada..By 18z today the low will have moved to Southwestern IA/Northwestern MO.Inverted trof pretty much located in the same area...By 00z Sunday said trof will bisect my MN FA getting ready to enter Western WI...Low pressure will have dived into North Central MO...SFC high pressure is forecasted to build into Western ND/SD. By 006z inverted trof will have cleared most of my MN FA,except far Northeastern MN,and my far Eastern WI FA...SFC low is forecasted to move Northeast into Northeast MO/Western IL...By 12z Sunday said low should be on IN's door step...Inverted trof will have clear the whole FA,in fact should be clearing all of WI by this time frame...SFC high pressure is forecasted to build into SD,pressure gradients between the low and high will bring gusty winds to the FA tonight and through Sunday..
Lets get into some of the finer details..of this...NAM model showing Convergence pushing out of the Dakotas into Canada,though Good mid level frontogenesis moves into area....This is going to set the stage for heavy snows through out much of the FA,However our Southern areas,Mainly WI will have to be watch as if the trend on the models keep showing forcing more to the North we may have to downgrade the snow fall amounts....My main area of concern for this will be from a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties of WI..Over through the twin Cities area and points west from there...We may have to knock the total storm totals here down to 4 to 5 inches maybe less if trend keeps up over the next few model runs...Will still run with best areas to pick up the heavier snows from points North of said line...Where parts of said Counties and North of there could pick up a foot or more of snow...Meanwhile along our North shore of MN LES will enhance the synoptic snows..Here we could easily see 10 to 19 inches of more of snow...Rest of the MN,WI FA should be in the 8 to 12 inch range as a rule.....We still need to watch our Southern zones to see if models are going to keep up with what they started or if it was just a messed up run we see...

Sunday...

Snow will be ending through much of the FA...Some areas should see skies become partly cloudy as we head through the day...
Arctic air will be felt through out the area....Long term forecast in tomorrow's update....


MY Local Blog FA below...

Lets get into some of the finer details..of this...NAM model showing Convergence pushing out of the Dakotas into Canada,though Good mid level frontogenesis moves into area....This is going to set the stage for heavy snows through out much of the FA,However our Southern areas will have to be watch as if the trend on the models keep showing forcing more to the North we may have to downgrade the snow fall amounts....My main area of concern for this will be from a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties of WI..We may have to knock the total storm totals here down to 4 to 5 inches maybe less if trend keeps up over the next few model runs...Will still run with best areas to pick up the heavier snows from points North of said line...Where parts of said Counties and North of there could pick up a foot or more of snow ...We still need to watch our Southern zones to see if models are going to keep up with what they started or if it was just a messed up run we see...Just can't stress this enough...For now will run with the forecast I had issued yesterday...I may very well end up downgrading snow totals as we get closer to late this afternoon or early evening hours...I might end up knocking snow amounts down through out my whole FA if models show a more Northward push of forcing and lift and moisture advection,along with drier air that may work into the area...We will watch it all to see how this will play out....

Sunday...

Snow will be ending through much of the FA...Some areas should see skies become partly cloudy as we head through the day...
Arctic air will be felt through out the area....Long term forecast in tomorrow's update....