Friday, January 9, 2009

ARCTIC OUTBREAK FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK......

This forecast I will talk about the Arctic air that will bring battery draining,pipe bursting,finger numbing cold to the area...Not only will this cold snap effect us,it will effect about 3/4 of the Country...

Jan 10 through Jan 16....

First shot of cold air will come into play for tonight through Saturday night...This will not be as bad as to what we will see next week....Departing clipper will draw down colder air through Saturday night Lows tonight should have no problem dropping to below zero,with clearing skies and light winds shall set the stage for most of the area to be around -7 North to -1 South....Saturday under sunny skies temps shall be in the teens above....WAA kick back in ahead of a next clipper system this will help keep temps just on either side of zero...Sunday through Monday next clipper system will draw in warmer air...Along with a chance of snow...Temps will be the warmest on Sunday with upper teens,some of my Southern areas could be into the lower 20s....Late Sunday a cold front is forecasted to plow through the area...Temps will fall into the single digits above zero...Only to push into the upper single digits for Monday...Here is where the turn Arctic blast sets in....Monday night under mostly clear skies temps will drop like a rock to -12 to 10 through the area as strong Arctic high pressure takes control of the weather for the rest of this time frame...Highs through Thursday will be very lucky to climb close to zero...-5 to around -1 looks to be the best way to run with this so far....Lows will drop -20 to -15 through out much of the FA....I would not be surprised to see lows getting closer to -30 to -25 with highs in the teens to upper single digits below zero...
Lets break this down even more with adding in computer model data....

By 00Z Tuesday GFS model showing temps of -16C...That for the most part cover much of my FA..Maybe the far Southern areas will see temps -14 to -12C..In my far Northern areas temps drop down to around -20C...By 06Z temps drop to around -20C for all of my FA with some -24C -30C dropping into the Central and Northern Areas By 12Z Wednesday temps area forecasted to be around the -24C through out much of the FA...-20C a tad warmer in my far Southern areas(if you want to call it warmer)......By 18Z Thursday temps warm back up to -20C through the whole FA...By 06Z Friday we find temps ranging from the -16C to -12C across the FA..That will be short lived as the -20C take hold once again by 12Z Friday..
So how long does this Arctic blast keeps us in the deep freeze?

Lets look ahead from Saturday Jan 17 through Sunday Jan 25....
We start the period cold...Temps on 00Z Saturday will range from -16C South to -24C Central and North....By 12Z Monday we see temps warming from -16C to around -12C..By 00Z Tuesday temps warm from -8C to around -4C..12Z Tuesday temps are forecasted to be around 0C..By 00Z Thursday temps fall back to a range from -8C to -10C...By 00Z Sunday temps fall to -20C to -30C once again.So maybe a little break in the cold air before it hits us in the face towards the end of this forecast cycle...

If this all works out we will be dealing with the coldest air thus far this winter....Some indications are pointing to a near, if not a record break cold period....I did not run with that just yet...However will see what happens with the models this weekend...As of now most of the long range models are forecasting this ...Something one might want to think about,and start to get ready for this dangerous Arctic outbreak!As this seems to be a prolonged cold snap!