Thursday, January 15, 2009

ARCTIC BLAST UPDATE...

Another update on this dangerously cold Arctic blast that we are currently in....The NWS has kept the WIND CHILL WARNING going through Friday noon.....
Current Conditions....
Temps have dropped to well below zero...Here at the office we are sitting at -25.8°....While Rice lake Airport is coming in with -19..That is mainly the heat island effect going on,as winds are from Northwest bringing the some what warmer city air over the Airport.....SFC OBS showing temps in the twenties below across my whole forecast area......Schools have been closing left and right,I would except to see more schools closing...Within the next hour...Though the latest I just heard just about most schools in Barron County have been closed.....Wind-chills...Are very dangerously cold..Ranging from -40 to -31 or so....All stations showing clear skies Satellite also confirms this...The cold air is really showing up nice on the Polar Stereographic IR4 and on the Thermal Infrared IR4 channel....
SFC ANALYSIS.....
Large 1047 MB high pressure over Northwest ND has control of our weather,,,,This thing has brought the coldest air of thus winter...See above.....Meanwhile out East we have a 1016 MB low pressure over the Eastern States...The Arctic front that came through Yesterday Morning is now from NC all the way through Central TX...Also bringing the coldest air thus far this winter to those areas...We see out next clipper system up in far Northern Canada...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
High pressure will remain in control of our weather through tonight...This will keep the Arctic air pumping into the area...So another cold day on tap....Pressure gradients will stay some what tight through out today and tonight..This will keep wind-chills ranging from the forties to thirties below zero..Might see a few reports of -50 attms .....By 18z today high pressure will sink to around Eastern NE /Western IA...This thing is forecasted to become stronger..Up to 1049 MBS..Highs today should be around 10 below....By 00z Friday/Tonight the high pressure will be over Western IA This will allow for temps to drop to from -30 to -25 tonight..Winds shall be a little lighter...So wind-chills not as bad,however still dangerous cold...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.....
Arctic high pressure will drift to Southeast MO this will allow for winds to become Southwest/South..WAA will be kicking in....Also we find a warm front over ND and SD...By 00Z Saturday,or later tonight we see the warm front reaching Western MN with a 1005 low pressure over Canada...This will set the stage for snow to enter the FA...By 12Z Saturday low is forecasted to be around Southwestern WI..How much snow is forecasted...Lets find out shall we...Will run with ECMWF and GFS...As other models don't seem to be handling the this system very well at all....Looks like the baroclinc line is going to set up through Central Barron County down through Eau Claire County....This would set the stage for a one to three inches of snow mainly for Points East of Central Barron County to Eau Clair County..Points West of this line may see .25 to .50 if they are lucky....Temps may be on either side of zero for the day..Lows shall drop to aroun -10 to -5 Friday night...Saturday temps warm to middle teens above zero....
LONGER TERM FORECAST.....
Warm air finally returns to the area this weekend,Mainly Sunday.....Some of the computer models are showing temps well into the 30s...I'm not sure I can buy into that...I will cut guidance values for our Central and Northern areas....middle to upper 20s seem more reasonable attm...While in my Southern areas could very well see temps into the middle 30s.....This warmer air is forecasted to last through out much off the next week.....Enjoy it while you can....Models still showing another Arctic blast coming in late next weekend and may hold through part of the week thereafter...We shall see......
SIDE NOTE...
Not only are schools closing things for tonight are now being cancelled....Best thing to do it to listen to one of the local radio stations for the updated list...As we here at the weather center don't have the time or will list closings....