First forecast of 2009

Forecast problems.....Possible snowstorm this upcoming weekend...Then off and on snow chances through the middle,and long term...Bouts of Arctic air in short,middle and, long term...

Current Conditions...

Temps have warmed up through out last night...Temps are in the lower to middle teens across the area..Radar showing some snow over my Central and Southern areas...Looking at the SFC OBS no snow being reporting attm...DBZ on radar showing only 10 to 17..More snow showing up in MN DBZ up to 25...Light snow/flurries are being reported at some stations...

SFC ANALYSIS....

1030 MB high pressure over the OH Valley...Meanwhile 999 low pressure Just North of NE with it's tending cold front reaching into Western MN ATTM..We also see our weekend system about ready to come on shore in the Northwestern States...

Today through tonight....

WAA has kicked in during the over night hours...Temps did raise through out the night....Pressure gradients have increased from the departing high pressure to our Southeast,and the incoming low pressure to our Northwest....Southerly winds have brought in warmer temps over night...Do except to see temps slowly fall after a cold front pushes through.
today.... Low pressure is forecasted to move along the MN and Canada border today and tonight...By 18z today the low should be around the tip pf MN Cold front will be pushing out of MN into my FA..By 00z Friday said low shall be North of the Western part of Lake Superior one cold front would have already pushed through the FA well into Eastern WI..Meanwhile another cold front will drop do South into the FA....Most of the energy will be found well to our Northwest over in Northern MN..The FA could see some off and on light snows through the day...I'm to thrilled about seeing to much in the way of accumulations...Just to be safe I will keep the same forecast as yesterday and run with .50 to some spots picking up close to 2 inches..Winds will increase as they switch to the Northwest this will cause blowing and drifting of the snow that we picked up over the last few days....Tonight the light snows should be over may see some breaks in the clouds...Temps will dive down to either side of zero as another shot of Arctic air moves in...

Friday...

A break in the snow...High pressure builds into the area,this will ensure us of a mostly sunny day,as RH sits around 30 to 35 %...Winds will slowly ease up as we fly through the day...Temps will be hard pressed to get into the middle teens...

Friday night through Saturday night....

Friday night we see our next trouble maker moving towards the are....So will increase clouds,may also be a chance of light snow moving in,As WAA kicks back in....By 12z Saturday we see a low pressure over Far Northwest IA with a trof reaching Northwest towards and low pressure over far Northeast ND..This whole complex is forecasted to move do East through the period...Saturday problems to come into play..SFC temps will be cold enough to support all snow,however looking at the upper levels warmer air is forecasted to move in..So this may cause some freezing rain/sleet for a time...I think that remain South of Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties lines..Point North of there should remain all snow with a brief chance at some mixed precip....Looks like the heavy snow will fall North of the area,up in Northern MN...We still might pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow...Still to far out there to pin point that...Models still not seeing eye to eye on things...So will see what happens with the next few runs....

Sunday through Monday night...

Cold period with highs around the lower to middle teens...With lows from -10 to +3...other than that is should be a quite time frame.....

Longer term...Jan 6th through Jan 17 th.....

Still looks like off and on snow chances like we have been seeing over the last few weeks....Computer models still showing off and on bouts of Arctic air through this time frame...Still around the 16/17 th looks like the Arctic air is going to become well established,with the coldest reading thus far this winter..This may be the long lasting Arctic outbreak...We will see...