Sunday, January 4, 2009

Forecast...Cold and more cold

Forecast problems...None....Cold temps a chance of some light snow Tuesday into Wednesday...Off and on bouts of Arctic Air through short term.middle,and long term forecast periods...See SAR for the snowfall totals through out the FA...That will be out shortly...

Current Conditions....

Temps have dropped off last night...Temps at this hour range from middle teens below zero in Western and Central MN FA,While the Eastern areas remain above zero...In my WI FA temps are in the teens to around 20 above...Have been seeing them drop though......Radar is showing some returns up in the ST.Louise ,Lake,and Cook Counties of MN...The highest DBZ is up to 27 Some returns also showing up in Bayfield,and Douglas Counties of WI..Here at the office in Rice Lake..We do have some light snow/flurries..Radar is not picking up on that however...SFC OBS reporting clear to partly Cloudy skies across much of our Central and Western areas of MN...Over in WI SFC OBS showing cloudy skies ,with flurries being reported in the city of Rice Lake...Winds generally from the West/Northwest...

SFC ANALYSES...

SFC charts this morning show a low pressure over western parts of IL,With a trof over Eastern WI to a low pressure system over Lake Superior, meanwhile 1032 high pressure sitting over SD with another high pressure area of Southern Canada....

Today through Monday....

System that brought all the heavy snow to the FA will keep tracking Eastwards today/ridge of high pressure builds into the area,this will allow skies to become mostly sunny by late morning early afternoon...Will keep clouds and some light snow going over far Northeast MN for today,as that area is still close to the low pressure....Pressure gradients should slack up as we head through the day,so winds should become lighter...Temps are at their highs for today...We will see them drop off through out the day...

Monday night through Wednesday...

A warm front starts to move into the area..We also find a 996 low pressure over Northern MT with a trof reaching down to another low pressure over Eastern CO..By 12z Tuesday warm front should have cleared just about the whole FA..Low dives into Southeastern ND By Wednesday said low will have moved onto Southeastern WI....This will brag another cold front through the area....This system is much weaker and with the cold dry air in place not much moisture for it to work with...So very little in away of snow accumulations will be forecast.......

Thursday through Friday...

We get a break in the action on Thursday..Next system is forecasted to bring another shot of snow to the area starting Thursday night into Friday..Again with the cold dry air in place don't think there will be to much in away of snow accumulations..Though this was will need to watch,As both GFS and ECMWF agree on the path and strength along with other factors...

Longer term....Jan 10 through Jan 20....

Will see off and on snow chances through out this time frame...Arctic air will keep pushing into the FA with some warming before the Arctic moves back in....Most of this period temps should avg to below norms