Forecast problems...Off and on snow chances through Monday...Warm up still in the cards,just not as warm as thought...Possible snow event coming late in the upcoming work week,then Arctic blast heading back into the area...
This is kind of a tough forecast as models really not been handling this swallow Arctic air sitting over mainly our WI area..Also middle range models and long term models keep play every forecaster's worst game of flip flopping back and forth...With that said will use what I have in front of me and throw in some gut feelings from time to time
Current Conditions....
A wide range of temps this morning...Over in MN temps range from the single digits up in our Northern areas..to the middle and upper teen across our Central and Southern areas..So lower 20s being reported in our far Western areas Hayward coming in at -16 while here at the office in Rice Lake we are down to -10....Over in WI...The Arctic air hold on tight....Lows range from the single digits to teens below zero...While the far Western part of WI temps just above zero...Looking at the satellite image IR..We see a sharp clearing line right through Western WI....And another of clouds ready to work in WI...Most MN reporting stations are cloudy with some light snow/flurries...Radar is picking up on the some of this...At any rate do except to see skies become cloudy in your area this morning if you are not already...
SFC ANALYSIS....
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This morning we see a warm front bisecting MN with a low pressure up in Canada...Yesterday's system over the Northeast part of MI,also a low pressure over IA,Meanwhile large ridge of high pressure out in the Western States....
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....
Low over IA is forecasted to move into Southwest IL today,as this happen the warm front over MN will not be making headway to the East..Weak areas of trofs will be moving down in the Northwest flow through this time frame...This will give us a chance for off and one light snows..Will be lucky to see an inch of accumulation through this period.....I did not run with freezing drizzle though cross section from INL MN to HYR WI does show that possibility,along with upper air soundings across the area...
LES snow should become more problematic as we head through the day into Monday....Cold winds flowing over the warmer waters of Lake Superior should be increasing lapse rates along with heights...The main bulk of the snow should fall later this afternoon and lasting through the over night hours..Looks like the main area to see LES would be Iron County,maybe into Ashland County...Thinking is a good 3 to 6 inches should fall around Hurley to Gile areas...Points to the west of there should see less snowfall....Some of Lake Superior is ice covered so if we don't get the winds out of the North snowfall amounts will be less than forecasted....I did cut highs a tad through this period,gut feeling and past trends show temps aren't going to be as warm as some of the models are forecasting...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Look for a some what warmer period,not as warm as thought yesterday....Highs in the middle to upper 20s seem the way to run,while lows should be in the teens to single digits.....
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....
Here is where thing get very interesting...Were to start......Lets look at the ECMWF model first...We see a low pressure forming over Northeast CO/Southwest NE...This low is forecasted to lift towards the Northeast...Towards Southeastern WI low will be able to tap into Golf moisture as a high pressure is located over FL..Cold air will be in place through out the FA this will give our Central and Southern areas a shot at snow,however the heavy snow should remain South over Southern/Central WI per ECWMF...Looking at the GFS model....GFS keeps the track more South of the FA...With this track the FA may not see any snow just some light snows...So for now I have decided to run with light snow across the whole forecast area...Other shifts will have to watch this and make adjustments to ongoing forecast as needed...As there really is no model guidance at all...
One thing models are in agreement on is the Arctic blast headed this way....However we are seeing the flip flop game being played out by the models once again..Which in return forces us to play the flip flop game also far out in time really have no choice to play...By Tuesday models should be locking onto one solution,if not we sure will be!..One run the colder sir looks to stay out of the area then the next few runs models push the closer air into the area..This morning models keep the colder air locked up in Canada until Tuesday of next week(see below)
Don't worry if you like cold Arctic air you will still like this late week into weekend forecast,as some of the cold air does work into the FA...Temps by Thursday night should be back to the single digits below zero to teens below zero though the FA...High shall be in the lowers teens to the single digits....Here also cut temps a degree or two...
LONGER TERM....FRIDAY NIGHT JAN 23 THROUGH TUESDAY FEB 3
Friday night lows drop to a range of -24C to -16 C...High on Sunday mainly around -16c to -12C...By Tuesday we see temps drop to a range from -24C to -20C.....This Arctic snap is forecasted to last right in the last part of Jan/first part of Feb with a slight... warming in temps...As of right does look to be just as cold as the Arctic blast we had,might be a few degrees warmer...
As far as precip goes...Look like off and on lights snow ...Will have to watch Sunday into Sunday night for a snow event....
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4 years ago
