Saturday, January 31, 2009

Updated forecast

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning starting out in the middle to upper teens..SFC OBS showing mostly cloudy skies in our Northern zones of MN...While in my Southern MN zones some partly cloudy skies being reported...Some light snow also showing up in Far Northwestern areas of MN...Over in WI..SFC OBS showing mostly cloudy skies.....

SFC ANALYSIS...

This morning's weather map we still see that warm front over the western part of MN...Large ridge of high pressure still in control of the Western States...We see our next shot of Arctic air poised to the Northwest up in Canada...High pressure that kept our skies mostly sunny yesterday has now slipped into the TN/OH Valleys....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Here is where the fun begins....Let start of with the wintry mix of precip...We will kept the precip going over our Northern areas of MN, and WI for today....I did pull the precip out of our far Southern zones of MN, and WI for today and tonight.....
Warm front is forecasted to move Eastwards today and by 12Z should be bisecting the Sate of MN...This will usher in warmer temps...Temps this morning already starting out rather warm....Still feel temps will be the warmest in our Western and Southern zones of MN were clouds should become more broken up with partly cloudy skies as a rule....Still feel temps will remain below the 32° mark most areas of MN...Our very far Southern zones may hit the 32° mark....Over in our WI zones temps will be cooler,even where clouds do clear out temps should only be in the upper 20s at best,as this areas..With rather still deep snow pack and rather low level sun angles,along with the timing of the warm front Which is forecasted to move through my WI zones around 18Z today...If warm front would have moved through a few hours before 18Z then I could have seen some of our WI zones hit 32°.....Warm up will be short lived as by later tonight the first cold front plows into the area...By 00Z Sunday front should be pushing through most of my WI zones....This will bring in some windy conditions as pressure gradient increases winds 15 to 20 MPH with gust up to 25 MPH can be excepted with the passage of the cold front...Temps do take a hit tonight....Sunday it's self will see temps around the lower 20s through out much of the FA...Will bring back snow chances to my Southern zones of MN, and WI as a weak system along with another cold front moves in from the Northwest Sunday night through Monday....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....

Arctic high pressure will be camping out over the area Temps will have a hard time getting above the lower teens on Tuesday...And lows well below zero Tuesday night...Wednesday I may have to cut temps back even more right now I have them in the 20s through out a good deal of the FA.....One good thing this Arctic air mass shouldn't last very long and shouldn't be as cold as the last few we have saw....

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

Temps really begin to moderate during this time frame...Looks like a nice quiet period....We may also hit our first 32° mark of the new year by Thursday or Friday...By Saturday some our far Southern Zones of MN, and WI may be in the middle 30s,as we bask under a large ridge of high pressure.... Along with upper level winds becoming zonal and then Southwesterly....

LONGER TERM ( SUNDAY FEB 8 THROUGH MONDAY FEB 16).....

This time frame still looking very interesting for the FA....Tuesday 254 hr we see a system forming over the TX panhandle,By the 276 hr system moves Northeast wards towards IA them by the 288 hr Thu system should be effecting the whole FA....
We should be in the warm sector of the low pressure at the beginning so rain with rain changing over to snow...We may even get the chance at hearing our first rumble of thunder,whether it be a thunderstorm or thundersnow still remains up in the air...This system has the possibility of becoming a major winter storm for all of my FA...Could start off as an rain then going to an ice storm before we get into some good snowfall amounts....This will all depend on the track of the storm,and whether or not severe thunderstorm form way to South to rob the GOM moisture moving North....This is something we will have to watch....As of right now it is way out there in time so my confidence level is low ATTM,nevertheless this has been on the last few computer runs....Temps will be up and down through this time frame...If one does an ave they will come up with temps still running below norms....