This forecast discussion will mainly focus on the Arctic outbreak coming next week...Ready or not this could be the coldest air that we have see in 15 years...This will also be a prolonged outbreak....Will have to get through some snow chances in the near term...
Current Conditions...
A cold morning...Temps are well below zero through out the FA..Skies for the most part range from clear to partly cloudy...Wind-chills 0 to -19 through out parts of the area...
SFC ANALYSES...
This morning's SFC charts we see a low pressure over East Central MO/Western IL....We also see a 1032 MB high pressure over far SD/Northern NE..Looking up into Canada we find out next clipper of interest up in the far Northern part of Alberta..So what does this all mean for the FA...Lets find out shall we....
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Low pressure is forecasted to remain well South of the area...As it moves into the TN/OH Valleys...High pressure is forecasted to remain in control of our weather through early tonight...This will bring cool temps again tonight should see below zero most areas..WAA kicks in for Sunday this will allow temps to be a few degrees warmer that Saturday,ahead of the next clipper type system..By Sunday 1020 MB low pressure should be over Northwest MN with a trof reaching South wards to KS.Will bring in a chance of snow for tonight and hold onto through Monday..
MONDAY....
By Monday said low should be over Lake Superior...This will keep some light snow going...Not to thrilled about accumulations attm..However if things all pan out we could see 1 to 4 inch accumulation through our Southern MN and most of our WI FA.....Will keep any eye on it.....We also see another clipper like system dropping in from Canada...This one here take a track through right through Central ND and SD..Then into IA...That track would keep most of the light snows to our South..However will run with light snow wording in the forecast....
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
Here go with the major Arctic air outbreak that I have been preaching about for about two weeks now....I just can't get over how good the long range models have been doing with this outbreak of very cold air...Nothing hasn't really change enough to make me rethink this.....GEM,GFS,and ECMWF models for the most part agree on strength and placement of the Arctic high pressure...This just remarkable!....By early Thursday 1053 MB high pressure will be just off to our West over the ND/SD...This high pressure for the most part just sits in the same areas and get stronger...Up to 1055 MB as it closes in on Western MN..This will ensure us of winds right off the Arctic circle...I hate to say this,we may have to lower temps even more than where we have them now....-40s are not going to be out of the realm...Looks like some records are going to be smashed or darn close to being smashed through much of this time frame...Highs will struggle to reach the middle teens below zero to single digits below zero...Lows 20 to 30 below will be common...40s below are looking better with each passing computer runs...Will have a HWD issued for this....
Might see a break in the cold air Arctic air on Friday before we get slammed right in the face once again next weekend through early next week......
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
