Friday, January 2, 2009

Winter storm heading this way once again.

Here we go again,another winter storm...But this should be no surprise as I have been talking about it over the last few days...
Forecast problem will be mixed precip and snowfall amounts...Hint looks like points South of a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties will be have more sleet,in turn holding down snowfall amounts.Points North of said line should see mainly all snow and in turn will have the highest amounts of snow once again...

SFC ANALYSIS...

High pressure building into the area from the west...System that had effected Northern areas with snow yesterday well to our East....Our winter storm now coming on shore in the Northwestern States....

Today Through tonight...

High pressure will be in control or our weather,though with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies temps won't get much above the middle teens today..18 z Friday 985 MB low pressure is forecasted to be in Central MT,while the high pressure sits darn near over head...High pushes off to Southeastern WI later tonight about 00z time frame...Meanwhile strong low pressure pushes into Southeast MT/Northeastern WY...Temps tonight will be in the single digits despite the increase in clouds..

Saturday through Sunday....

By 12z Saturday the low is forecasted to drop into Northeast NE...By 00z Sunday the low then drops into MO before heading back Northeast to Southern WI..While this does this an inverted trof will work into the area..Strong forcing is forecasted by the models once again...The models are slowly starting to show more cold air...However still warm enough air aloft to keep mixed precip in this forecast....Lets break this right down....Points South of a line from Central Barron,Polk,and Rusk Counties will see more mixed precip..This will hold down the snowfall amounts...3 to 6 inches of snow do look possible for them areas..Would not be shocked to see a few 8 inch reports...To the North of said line,mainly all snow will fall and the best forcing once again sets up in them areas and North of there...So 4 to 8 inches will be likely in them areas...Would not be shocked to see a few 10 to 12 inch reports from said areas......Sunday snow ends but arctic air will blast into the area causing blow and drifting snow...Map will be out shortly....
No time for long term forecast attm...See below for that as it has stayed pretty much the same...