Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Still looking dry right through Saturday, all with warming temps..


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 9 Am hr under sunny to mostly sunny skies temps range from the upper 50s North to the middle 60s South.. Dewpoints are in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Winds are out of the South from 3 to 7 MPH...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning the weather charts of the NAM model is showing a 1025 MB high pressure centered over Southeast WI.... This has allowed for winds to back to the South/Southeast.. This will allow for warmer temps today under mostly to sunny skies...This high pressure is forecasted to drift into Western MI By Friday the high should be over Eastern MI.... Meanwhile one can find a 1001 MN low pressure over WY, this is forecasted to lift Northeastwards toward Western ND before filling, However Friday there is another low pressure system forming over Northeast WY this one is stronger 998 MBS... This is forecasted to move into Far Northwest ND then into Canada on Saturday this low is forecasted to deepen to around 989 MBS.. Temps are forecasted to be in the middle 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s by later Thursday and lasting through Saturday. Lets look at the GFS model next... GFS has the has the high pressure a tad more North over Northeastern WI later today.. GFS does drop the high into Western MI on Thurs about the same area NAM has it...GFS is faster in moving the high Southeast then NAM by Saturday GFS shows the high on Mid Atlantic Coast line...Meantime GFS has a 1002 MB low in Northeast WY Southeast MT by Thurs..GFS weakens the low later Thurs to around 1007 MBS as it pushes into Western ND/SD...Then we see another low pressure over taken shape over Western ND on Friday, this low is forecasted to around 999 MBS Late Friday night/early Saturday Morning GFS stills shows this low over that are, however the low is forecasted to deepen to around 993 MBS.. By later Saturday said low moves into Canada Just North of Northwestern MN.. The low is forecasted to work Eastwards Sunday... This should drag a cold front into the FA or very close to the FA...GFS showing dewpoints in the middle 60s to upper 60s by the weekend....ECMWF model showing about the same, however it's a tad slower in bring the cold front into and through the area...This would keep showers and thunderstorms through Monday/Monday night.... Which does seem plausible.. Given the other models also have slowed the main weather features down some...

***TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

Mostly sunny skies highs today in the middle 70 afew lower 80s not out of the question Highs through the rest of this forecast cycle middle to upper 80s... There still is a chance at seeing lower 90s by Saturday.. Overnight lows in the warming from the middle 50s tonight to the middle 60s Saturday night.

***4th OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY***

We do have a chance at showers and thunderstorms as of right now under mostly cloudy skies.. High in the middle 80s, however if we can get more sun we would have a good chance at seeing temps hitting that 90 degree mark.

So to recap..

It will start to get muggy after today and lasting right through the 4th of July weekend... With a chance of showers and thunderstorms coming into play on the 4th... If models keep slowing everything down we may be able to keep Sunday and Sunday evening dry.... We shall see later in the week...

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Nice stretch of dry weather on tap through Friday...Temps will be a little chilly mainly today and tonight...Hot and humid air returns to the FA by Friday lasting through the 4th of July weekend, along with the warmer temps and higher dewpoints will also come chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS this morning show free AC across the areas...Temps @ this 7 AM hr are in the lower to middle 50s...Middle to upper 40 in my Northern FAs...Dewpoints in the middle to upper 40s... Winds are out of the North/Northeast from 5 to 7 MPH....All stations reporting sunny skies...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

A 1024 MB high pressure has built into the area.. This is forecasted to camp out over the upper Midwest/Great lakes area... This insure the FA Sunny skies through Friday... Overnight lows will be rather chilly tonight... most areas middle 40s...Some upper 30s may be found in our colder spots... Tomorrow morning the high pressure starts to drift East/Southeast toward Southern Lake MI this will set up a return flow so temps on Wednesday shall be warmer middle 70s with some areas reaching for the upper 70s.. Meantime we see a 1001 MB low pressure Northern WY this will also aid in warmer temps.., Thursday the high pressure builds to around 1027 MBS as it is forecasted to be over SW MI... Low pressure out in WY moves into far Western SD... Expect temps to warm into the 80s Friday the high pressure system is forecasted to be centered around Northeast MI, meantime Low pressure over the WY/far Western SD deepens to around 996 MBS as it pushes towards far Northern ND.. The 4th of july weekend still somewhat remains up in the air on showers and thunderstorm chances.. Dependant on what tropical storm Alex does will play a role on deep moisture return into the area.. So all eyes on Alex over the next few days...As of right now am banking on a cold front to start to push into the area by the weekend this should start to flatten out the ridge we are under...Should see showers and thunderstorms break out ahead of and along the frontal boundary...Should be a slow mover so right as of now the best way to run with this weekend's forecast is to paint showers and thunderstorms in right through Monday... Again we will have to watch Alex to see what kinds of effects Alex will have on our weather.... Nevertheless starting Friday and lasting through Monday temps will soar into the middle to upper 80s.. If we see more sunshine on Saturday and Sunday we could be talking temps in the lower 90s...Yes more humid air also in the cards...

Heavy rainfall last night

Once again last night the FA picked up heavy rainfall....This is the Doppler Radar Estimated Storm Total Rainfall....First image is from Duluth, The second image is from the Chanhassen...As you can see widespread 1 inch plus fell last night..Click on image to enlarge..Good news is we should see a nice dry run of weather for this upcoming week..

Severe weather chances later today into tonight...

More severe thunderstorms are possible through parts of the FA once again later this afternoon and into tonight... So this FA discussion will focus on that...


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

SFC OBS this morning shows temps in the middle to upper 60s cooler up in my far Northern areas... Skies for the most part cloudy with areas of fog..There has been some breaks note in the cloud deck per satellite imagery.. Winds range from the North to South across the FA.... Dewpoints still rather muggy middle to upper 60s once again cooler up North....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning's fog and low clouds burn off and set us up with a partly cloudy day...This will allow for temps to reach for middle 80s might see a few upper 80s... Last night MCS that formed over MN/WI has forced the warm front back down into IA... This morning we see a 1001 MB low pressure system over West NE... Along what appears to be a shortwave around CO..Low over NE is forecasted to slowly push East this will try to push the warm front back Northwards, once again dependant on how far the frontal boundary comes North will be how far North to bring the severe weather threat... Will talk about that in a min... Nonetheless most of the FA should see heavy rainfall once again this evening into the over night hrs as storms form into MCS...OK time to hash out where the best area of severe thunderstorms may rear their ugly heads later today.... Cape values soar from 1500 J/KG to around 2500 J/KG for Central and Southern parts on the FA...LIS around -4... Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be the rule right through tonight... Looking at the 700 MB chart we find temps around the +5c to +10c range so capping won't be an issue as of now.... PWS ranging from 1.25 to 1.50 inches across the FA...There is better upper level support today and most of the severe indices are being meet.... SFC heating has kicked in for parts of the FA this morning.... So with the warm front near by later this afternoon and a cold front pushing into the area later this evening...Thunderstorms once again should blow up rather fast in MN.... My thinking is the main tornado threat will be out in MN giving the better dynamics in place over there....Storms will be capable of producing large tornadoes on the on slot then storms are forecasted to form into MCS, as this happens the main threat will be hail and damaging winds along with very heavy rainfall amounts... Now thinking is as of right now, which may change by this afternoon is the severe thunderstorm threat will remain South of a Barron, Polk, and Rusk County line....Said Counties still could see heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms... With a few of the storms reaching the lower thresholds on the severe weather scale.

Forecast discussion for West Central & Northwest WI

This forecast discussion will namely revolve around the severe thunderstorm chances along with heavy rainfall.... Lots to talk about this morning so lets dive right into....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning temps are in the lower to middle 60s throughout the entire FA Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Skies range from Partly sunny to sunny... Winds are light out of the SE.... Radar is showing a area of showers and thunderstorms over North Central to West Central MN some of these thunderstorms have been severe this morning...The entire area is moving East/Southeast....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning weather charts feature a 1017 MB high pressure centered over far Northwestern MI, this has allowed a return flow to take over the FA a frontal boundary/Warm front over Southern MN shall remain there throughout Saturday before a cold front kick its out of the area...Warm front may try to work Northwards from time to time, however thunderstorms complexes should hold it at bay.... Nevertheless this frontal boundary will set the stage for thunderstorms later this afternoon.... Now dependant on what transpires with this morning's complex will decide if we see severe thunderstorms or not...SPC has the area under a mod risk of severe thunderstorms... Still the atmosphere is forecasted to destabilizes dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s... meanwhile Cape is forecasted to increase from 500 to 2000 J/KG this afternoon... LIS are forecasted to range from -2 to -4 EHI is forecasted to range from 0.0 to 1.0 across the FA even higher over parts of MN... Thinking this is where the greatest tornado threat will setup... Not saying my FA won't see any tornadoes... Upper level support is not what I would like to see ATTM... Tomorrow afternoon the upper level support does look better... Tonight thunderstorms are forecasted to form into MCS with damaging wind threat along with heavy rainfall QPF showing 1 to 2 inches of rain with localized higher amounts... I would not be shocked to see some 3 or even four inch amounts, if thunderstorms are slow to move, and keep training over the same areas... With the ground already saturated flooding may become a problem for the area... Will have to watch this as this event unfolds.... Will keep the severe weather threat alive for tomorrow as the frontal boundary remains close if not overhead... tomorrow may be the best severe weather day... Again this will depend on if the tonight's thunderstorm complex clears the area to allow for SFC heating to kick in.... Nonetheless looks to be a busy couple of days here on the road and at the office....

So to recap today and through Saturday night severe weather threats...
Later today into the evening the risk would be large hail and damaging winds...One or two tornadoes can't be rules out... Thinking is South Central/Southern MN would have the better chance for tornadoes.... This evening into the over night hrs the risk shall turn to damaging winds and flooding.... Saturday afternoon into the evening severe weather threat...Large hail damaging winds, a few tornadoes will be possible...Then again the threat for Saturday late evening through the over night hrs switches back to a damaging and flooding event....
***RADAR UPDATE AS OF 8:00 AM***
Showers and thunderstorms now have pushed into Douglass,Bayfield, Burnett,and Washburn Counties... This area is moving to the East/Southeast...

Severe weather chances along with more heavy rainfall...

Warm today through the weekend, with the severe thunderstorm chances returning to the FA...


Not a lot to talk about for today, what you see is what you get...There may be a shower or thunderstorm up in the far Northern areas of the FA.... Highs today should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lower dewpoints so won't be as humid..

Time to talk about the severe weather chances...
Like always this spring/early summer a few things will make it or break...
First off a warm front shall try to work North in Southern MN Friday... How far this warm front can make it North along with a few other factors.... As it looks right now MCS should form over ND/MN and push into the FA on Friday night... This should bring heavy rainfall back into the area.... The threat for large hail and damaging winds seem to be the main players... Saturday still up in the air for severe weather chances.... Will depend how fast the morning's thunderstorm complexes move out, and if we can get enough daytime SFC heating.... Looks like more night time thunderstorms will be likely, some which could be severe ahead of a cold front that is forecasted to work its way through the area...Temps will be tricky they will depend on cloud cover along with how far the North the warm front makes it..... 80s North of the front, with upper 80s to lower 90s South of the frontal boundary.... Will have a better handle on this tomorrow..

The site is up and running!

Ok folks the site is up and running Craig is adding pictures from my local chase last night... You will have to sign up to leave comments.... Pictures should be ready in couple hrs..Again this site is for near time storm chases it will display about where we are sitting on a map....Heck just play around with it..We hope to test this out later today into this evening...I will be busy until after 4 another doc appt @330 today...The link is...I will also add this link off on the right hand side also....


http://wws.meaoy.info/

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES***


Could we dealing with around of severe thunderstorms later today, and through out the evening through the overnight hrs...Yes, No, or Maybe....This forecast discussion will focus on that.....

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

This morning we are greeted by mostly sunny skies across the FA...Some stations still reporting some fog, along with VSB down to around 1/4 of a mile.. Temps have a wide range to them this morning....Middle 50s up around Lake Superior to the middle to upper 60s elsewhere's a few stations reporting 70s...Dewpoints mainly in the lower to middle 60s,cooler along Lake Superior...Winds from the SE for the most part around 5 MPH..Radar at this hr showing showers and thunderstorms out over far Western MN and down into NE and throughout IA/IL... All clear in the FA...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Lets try to hash out this severe weather threat to some degree...
Dewpoints are already in the lower to middle 60s NAM is showing a slight decrease in values down into middle to upper 50s for a short time today before ramping back into the upper 60s to lower 70s later this afternoon and evening...
NAM is also showing Cape values increasing as we head through the day 1500 J/KG to around 2500 J/KG...LIS are forecasted by NAM to range from -2 to -4 throughout the FA.. With -6 over in MN through far SW WI....Lets look at the RUC model...Here we see dewpoints will remain in the middle 60s with an upward trend to the upper 60s to lower 70s by time we reach the late afternoon hrs...RUC keeps the Cape values almost close to the NAM... LIS is also about the same...Looking at the GFS we find LIS here are about the same, however stronger just to the South where LIS range from -6 to -8..PWS on the models showing around 1.5 to 2.0... Dewpoint values off the GFS show about the same as RUC... So we do have the dynamics in place for the possibility of severe thunderstorms later today throughout tonight...
Cold front over the Dakotas is forecasted to push into Western MN this morning and move towards the FA by later today/tonight... Meanwhile a warm front in IA is forecasted to lift North/Northeastwards... Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to form along the cold front and down South along the warm front.... The ongoing storms this morning in said areas have also left several outflow boundaries which will also act as focus point for more thunderstorms to form...This has me somewhat concern about the threat of severe storms in the FA... It will depend on what takes place down in IA... If storms keep forming this will rob some of the dynamics from reaching this far North.. SFC heating won't be a problem as that has already gotten a early start.... Clusters of thunderstorms later today is forecasted to form into an MCS, if this does play out which looks likely we should see a large area of showers and thunderstorms... With a damaging wind threat later this evening into Wed morning... As of right now my thinking is the best areas to see severe thunderstorms shall be found over SD Southern MN along with SW WI and points South of there.... Nevertheless the FA does have a chance of severe thunderstorms later today into the over night hrs.... Main threat from severe thunderstorms over the FA would be large hail and damaging winds... Although one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out... It's unlikely attm.... This forecast may need to be updated this afternoon if things chance...

Forecast discussion update

Forecast details for tomorrow still somewhat up in the air ATTM for severe thunderstorms chances...


***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Disturbance is working its way through the FA attm showers and thunderstorms have form along this feature some of the thunderstorms were rather strong through much of the FA this late afternoon...Radar is showing most of this actively now into far Eastern parts of the FA...Also a weaken trend has been noted.. We still may see a few more ISO showers and storms pop up before dark...Don't feel they will be as strong as most of the dynamics is now pushing out of the FA.... Along with thunderstorms well to the South they seem to be robbing some moisture streaming Northwards...Tomorrow still looks to be problematic.. MCS forecasted to form out West in ND/SD/NE.. The timing and placement is anyone's guess, nevertheless this will have a big impact on any severe thunderstorms over the FA....See this morning's forecast discussion for the finer details as this also applies to this discussion...Temps will also feel the impact...If we remain cloudy temps cooler if can breaks in the cloud cover temps will have no problem reaching into the middle 80s.. Still be muggy...
Showers and thunderstorms chances will be kept alive through Wednesday as a frontal boundary sits over or very close to the area...This will move on by Wed night setting the stage for what appears to be a nice Thur... However this shall be short lived as another system starts to head towards the area for Friday through the weekend...Temps a little cooler for Thur again that will be short lived as temps reach back to middle 80s...We will have to watch the temps if more sun appears during this time frame we could be looking at lower 90s..Will worry about that when we get closer to the weekend.... Still will remain rather muggy, sticky, humid.. Whatever you would like to call it...

Exciting news!

I'm very happy to announce some exciting news... My friend is making a blog that will allow people to see what storms we are chasing in near real time... He is also our nowcaster so he will be updating the blog with our reports and pictures, once I get the capabilities to do so with the picture thing... Once he gets everything official I will have a link posted... So far from what I see everything looks great... I think this will help people understand what a storm chaser really goes through out in the field, and how many miles we do put on.. This should prove to be a fun project for us... So keep checking back !!!

Forecast discussion for Western/Northwestern WI

Severe thunderstorm chances...Warm & humid air...


A few things that may play havoc with this forecast...I will discus that in a few...

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Looking at the SFC OBS temps through out the FA for the most part are in the upper 60s to lower 70s... Cold spot which is not that cold for them is up in Superior with a temp of 61... The warm spot is over in Osceola coming in at 73...A humid morning with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s, in the middle to upper 50s up North...Winds for the most part are out of the S/SE from 3 to 10 MPH.... Most stations are reporting cloudy skies...Here in Rice Lake we have been seeing a few breaks here and there....Radar @ 9:33 AM is showing a few showers and thunderstorms over parts of Polk, St. Croix, Pierce, Pepin, and Dunn Counties...More widespread area of showers and thunderstorms noted over SW MN down into IA...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Warm front over IA is forecasted to lift slowly Northwards through Tuesday, at the same time a cold front if forecasted to move East/Southeast on Tuesday.. As of right now I don't feel there will be a widespread severe weather chance for today... However a few strong thunderstorms could be possible, or even reach the low end on the severe thresholds... SFC heating shall be kept down with clouds and forecasted showers and storms... Tomorrow on the other hand could be a whole new book to read... This will be dependent on a few factors... Biggest one...The placement of thunderstorms complexes that form tonight, and how fast we can get breaks in the cloud cover to form... Instability is forecasted to be greater on Tuesday afternoon and night.. -2 to -4 seems plausible ... LLJ is also forecasted to become a little stronger by Tuesday late day/evening... Capping shouldn't be issue, Am concern about wind shear as it is not a strong as I would like to see... So for severe weather chances... 1 will have to see were the MCS setup tonight and how fast we can get SFC base heating kicking in.. 2. were the frontal boundary sets up (warm front to our South, cold front moving in from the West/NW... 3. how fast we can get deep level moisture back in the area. If thunderstorm complexes do form how much of that will they rob.... So as of right now my thinking the best chance of severe thunderstorms will remain to the South... However this could still change... As this weather pattern we are in is somewhat to forecast for...Mainly the timing of thunderstorms... Should have a better handle on this later today... So I do plan to have an update after I see the newest computer model runs...

***RADAR UPDATE***

Showers and thunderstorms have moved into Barron, Chippewa, Eau Claire Counties....A few stronger cells still over Dunn, Polk and St. Croix Counties.. As of 10:16 AM this Monday morning.

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DISCUSSION***

Well be talking about the severe weather chances for later today through tonight... Not much time to look at much after this period...




***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

Skies are mainly partly cloudy throughout the FA... Temps in the upper 50s to middle 60s... Lower 50s are to be had up around Lake Superior.. Dewpoints for the most part are in the lower 60s, again cooler up in the far Northern areas.. Winds range from calm to around 5 MPH out of the E/SE this morning...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Severe thunderstorms are seeming more likely later today through tonight...A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms has been issued for most of the FA.. Models are more in tuned today with the setup for severe thunderstorms, however still a few things they don't agree on.. So will use a blend....Models are forecasting the thunderstorm complex over ND/Western MN to push North/Northeast as shortwave/trof moves North/Northeast... However radar trends some of the storms over Western MN moving more East... Something we will have to watch.... More thunderstorms are forming over IA and pushing North... once again we will have to watch that area to see what transpires..

Low pressure this morning over SD is forecasted to deepen and pushes into Canada this will drag a cold front into MN during the day and towards the FA later today into tonight...Cape values are forecasted to range from 2000 to 2500 J/KG... Dewpoints are forecasted to soar into the upper 60s to lower 70s.... Cap is strong and should hold strong throughout the day.. 700 MB temps ranging from the +12 c to +14 c... Strong wind shear is also setting up.. However by time thunderstorms get to the FA we should see a line of showers and thunderstorms... This line should form into an MCS... Could see some embedded supercells... As of right now my thinking is MN will see the best action...Although here in WI we still should see some severe thunderstorms.. If the cold front picks up a little more speed our chances of severe thunderstorms with the threat of tornados would increase, as it looks right now the main threat would be large hail and damaging winds over here.. Still can't rule out one or two tornadoes though.. Friday the threat of severe thunderstorms should be East and South of the area, however we will have to see where the cold front stalls out.. If it stalls a little more North then tomorrow we could be dealing with more severe weather throughout parts of the FA.....

HWD for Western/Northwestern WI

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS***


The stage is setting up to what could be our first real severe weather outbreak. Low pressure is forecasted to track into the Dakotas...As it does thunderstorms are forecast to fire up in Western MN and trek Eastwards...Storms should form into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms as they push towards the FA... As it looks right now the main threat looks to be large hail and damaging winds for the FA... However with wind shear in place one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out...

The forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

This forecast discussion will mainly deal with Thursday's and Thursday's possible severe thunderstorm outbreak....


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 7 AM HR skies throughout the FA are mainly cloudy with widespread fog.. Temps in the middle to upper 50s cooler around Lake Superior...Winds calm to around 5 MPH from the W/NW....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Yesterday's shortwave now a distance memory as it is centered over the Great Lakes area...High pressure building into the FA should give us one of the nicest days we have seen in sometime, with warmer temps under sunny skies...Good day to get the yard work done, as this will be short lived....
Time to hash out the details of what could be the first possible severe weather outbreak for the FA...First on the plate is how remarkable the computer models are in agreement on this, sure some differences are showing up, but overall things are looking rather good so confidence levels are rather great....Will blend a mix of details from NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF, however will mainly use ECMWF model for the finer details...992 MB low pressure over CO is forecast to lift into Eastern MT/Western ND then push into Canada were it deepens to around 990 MBS...As this does winds will switch to the SE this evening...Moisture flow will also begin to increase...Low level jet start to get it's act going also at the 250 MB height we see a 40 to 50 KT wind from the West/Northwest...At the 700 MB level winds are from the SW at 20 to 30 KTS however they do increase to around the 40 to 50 KTS Looking at the 850 MB level winds from 30 to 40 KTS from the South.. So we do have a good deal of wind shear to play with... Dewpoints soar into the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow... MLCAPE values shoot for around the 1500 to 2000 J/KG... With all that said.... Model do forecast a thunderstorms complex to form out West over SD/ND and they move this into Northwestern MN...We may see this build into parts of Central MN... Depending on where this complex sets up and if we do indeed get caught up in this mess will be one of the main players to keep the threat of severe weather down... Models do show this complex moving out and weaken it... So partly cloudy skies for now seem to be the best way to run... Nevertheless this should allow for temps and instability to climb... Player number two capping issues 700 MB temps forecasted to run around +12 c to +14 c.. Models do show the cap breaking down as thunderstorms fire up in Western MN and work East Southeast along the cold frontal boundary.... Thunderstorms could form into MCS Thursday night... As the cold front is forecasted to slow down as it gets closer to the FA....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Mostly sunny once the for burns off.. Highs in the middle 70s ... Partly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Winds NW around 5 MPH, switching to the Southeast tonight...

***THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT***

Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon.. Highs in the middle 80s.. Winds South/Southeast 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts...Showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into the over night hrs... Lows in the middle 60s.. Winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH...

***FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

Partly to mostly sunny skies highs in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s....

*** TORNADO WARNING FOR ST. CROIX COUNTY***

FROM THE NWS
TORNADO WARNING


WIC109-152045-

/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0005.100615T2015Z-100615T2045Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

315 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...



* UNTIL 345 PM CDT



* AT 312 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 3 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF BALDWIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

BALDWIN...

WOODVILLE...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT

STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY

BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.



&&



LAT...LON 4504 9227 4490 9227 4488 9243 4498 9243

TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 235DEG 11KT 4493 9239



$$

***TORNADO WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY WI.***

From the NWS.....
Tornado Warning valid until June 15 3:30pm CDT

TORNADO WARNING

WIC095-152030-

/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0004.100615T2004Z-100615T2030Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

304 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...



* UNTIL 330 PM CDT



* AT 259 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTH OF

BALSAM LAKE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF WANDEROOS...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

BALSAM LAKE...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT

STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY

BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

Short term forecast number 3

The NWS has issued a FLOOD  ADVISORY for Polk and St. Croix Counties....

 Heavy rainfall is expected in Polk and St. Croix Counties as showers and thunderstorms keep training over the same areas...This will lead to flooding of low lying areas along with street flooding...If there is water on the roadway do not try to drive through as you never know if the the road has been washed away. Also with the flooding problems some hail and gusty winds will still be possible with the stronger thunderstorms...


Also one should be on the alert for possible funnel clouds as the upper levels do support this with very cold temps aloft...And funnels clouds that do form should remain aloft however there is a chance that there may be a brief touch down.....

Short term forecast number 2

Showers a few stronger thunderstorms have now worked into Central parts of Polk, St. Croix Counties of WI. Meanwhile showers and thunderstorms are reforming over Pierce County WI...The line it's is moving Northeast with cells moving North/Northeast... Expect gusty winds and some hail with the stronger thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in a short period of time...


Also one should be on the alert for possible funnel clouds as the upper levels do support this with very cold temps aloft...And funnels clouds that do form should remain aloft however there is a chance that there may be a brief touch down.....

Short term forecast number 1

A broken line of showers and thunderstorm have formed from Chisago County in MN down through St. Croix, Pierce,County in WI. and points South of there all way into IA.. The line it's self is moving towards the East Northeast, while some cell are moving due North.. Expect some heavy rain and gusty winds and small hail with the strong storms as they move into and through St. Croix County .. Also we are also watching a strong cell over Washington/Chisago this thunderstorm storm is capable of small hail up to 1/4 this thunderstorm should be pushing into Western Polk County...Also one should be on the alert for possible funnel clouds as the upper levels do support this with very cold temps aloft...And funnels clouds that do form should remain aloft however there is a chance that there may be a brief touch down.....

HWD for Thursday

This HWD is for Thursday late afternoon through Thursday night....

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING***


Low pressure is forecasted to lift into Canada this shall slam a cold front into and through the FA Thursday late afternoon through the evening.. We are going to have to watch a couple of things with this setup that may hinder the severe weather chances...First off the bat. ongoing thunderstorm complex that is forecasted to be over SD and ND... This area of storms is forecasted to weaken and move off to the North/Northeast.... If this can stay clear of the area or can move out of the area we should see thunderstorms fire up along and head of cold front...With moderate to strong instability to form and moisture forecasted to increase rather fast... Along with deep shear....We should see an area of thunderstorms fire rather fast along the frontal boundary in the early to mid afternoon along SD,ND, and MN border storms should race East into the FA sometime later in the afternoon...Thinking is sometime after 4 PM..... Looks like storms should be with us throughout Thurs night.....Strong to severe thunderstorms possible after 4 PM lasting through 10 PM or so....

Main threat from the severe thunderstorms shall be large hail and damaging winds...

Stay tuned for more updates on this possible severe thunderstorm event....

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

Active weather pattern keeps a going, and going, and going...Will also be talking about a chance of severe thunderstorms...


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At his 9 AM hr temps for the most part are running in the lower 60s with 50s around Lake Superior..Dewpoints rather sticky once again upper 50s to lower 60s, again cooler along Lake Superior...Winds have been turning from the NE to the SE....Skies are cloudy like the past several mornings....Some stations are also reporting fog....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

The early morning showers and storms have now pushed well North/East of the area... However still look for more showers and a few thunderstorms today as a trof moves through the area.. Along with a shortwave dropping South out of Canada.. Tomorrow models bring in an area of weak high pressure... So with any luck at all we should see the sun...Along with warmer temps...Thursday is looking to be the day of interest across the FA... NAM model showing a 996 MB low over NW WY NAM moves this low into NW ND and deepens it to around 991 MBS... Cape is forecasted to run from 1000 to 1500 J/KG... LIS are forecasted to be from -2 to -4.... Dewpoints will climb for the middle to upper 60 by Thursday afternoon. Wind shear is looking rather good . One problem noted on this setup so far is the 700 MB temps may produce a stronger cap as temps shoot for +12c to +14c So if this plays out we may not see severe thunderstorms until Thursday night when the cold front pushes into the area, along with low level jet increasing to 30 to 40 KTS... With all the dynamics coming into play I feel by late Thursday afternoon will be a very busy day for forecasters, storm chasers, and skywarn spotters and my nowcaster....Could be a long late afternoon and evening....Note must models are picking up on this possible severe weather event.

High pressure builds back into the FA for Friday and Saturday with near normal temps....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Showers and a few thunderstorms possible at any giving time highs around 70... Lows in the middle 50s... Winds Southeast from 5 to 10 MPH...

***WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT***

Partly cloudy, highs upper 70s with lows around 60, with light winds....

***THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon highs around 80.. Lows in the lower 60s....We will have to watch for strong and severe thunderstorm chances...

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Forecast as you can see remains problematic....As we are greeted with clouds and fog...As the showers have moved into SW/South Central MN...Models still have problems with these features...Thinking is convection problems....So we will try to work through this mess...


***CURRENT CONDITION***

Temps are in the upper 50s across the whole FA...Dewpoints are running close to that...Some stations are reporting fog as well...Skies overall are cloudy some breaks far North and East....Winds calm to around 5 MPH out of the NE....Radar is showing a rather large area of showers over MN moving toward the NE...Showers have pushed into Pierce County already along with Pepin County.....As of 7:45 AM

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Today we shall see two systems to effect the area which was not expected to happen as fast.. Nevertheless it is.....First area that pesky stationary frontal boundary...Though it has sank further South...Waves of low pressures/trofs have been riding along with....Causing thunderstorm complexes to form over NE and IA then move into the FA.. Once again we see it this morning...Although yesterdays system took it's sweet time in getting here and for the most dried up to just some areas of light rain in the evening HRs, thanks to somewhat drier air in place yesterday...Today moisture is a little more instability in like yesterday little to non...So with that said I don't expect any thunderstorms today...Also a disturbance over Southern SD is forecasted to push East...Some questions remain if the two system will join forces most models suggest this, forming an upper level low.. This forecasted to move into MN sometime tonight or tomorrow morning... Timing and placement of said upper level low is somewhat up in the air... To make matters worst we also find an trof in the mix this is forecasted to move through MN into the FA by around Tuesday afternoon.. So looks like we shall be dealing with showers today and tonight...Tomorrow/tomorrow night have decided to add thunder back into the forecast with better lift and instability moving back into the FA....Weak high is forecasted to take control for Wednesday/Wednesday night...If this plays out we should see that big yellow thing AKA the sun... However this shall be short lived as another system moves into the late Wednesday night, bring another round of showers and thunderstorms back to the FA through Thursday night... Right now most of next weekend shall remain dry...One can only hope...Right?....

***TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT***

Cloudy with showers...Thunderstorms will also be possible Tuesday/Tuesday night..... Highs right around 70 both days...Lows in the middle to upper 50s both nights...Winds today through tonight around 5 to 10 MPH from the East...Tomorrow winds become South around 5 to 10 MPH...

***WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT***

Partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night...Highs middle 70s lows lower 60s..

***THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms.. Highs around 80 with lows around 63 or so....

Western & Northwestern WI forecast

The forecast still remains to be problematic as models still having a very hard time handling shortwaves/trofs moving along a frontal boundary stalled to our South...Radar is showing showers over in MN that is moving Northeast.. Looking at other radars we see an thunderstorm complex over KS, NE, into IA.. This whole area has been working Northeast with with embedded cells moving East.


***CURRENT CONDITIONS**

At this 7 Am hr skies are cloudy throughout the entire FA, along with areas of fog...Temps are in the middle to upper 50s winds are clam to around 5 MPH....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

As stated above this forecast will be a problem.. MCS could/will be the main player... How far North to bring the showers and storms for today.... The RUC model does seem to be the model of choice however am going to blend models, that seem to play well in yesterday's forecast and see no reason why it won't work out today.. Frontal boundary to our South is forecasted to slowly sink to the South, wave of low pressures still forecasted to traverse across the boundary area, meantime a a trof is moving across SD this area of forecasted to move East across the MN/Canada border...This trof should have little impact on the FA... However still should see some rain showers in my Northern FA... The MCS is forecasted to move Northeast this should weaken as it heads into the FA... However with the way the weather pattern has been will have to keep rain showers alive.. Will not use thunder wording in forecast as lift and forcing is rather null... However tonight I have decided to use thunder wording as a trof/cold front pushes through the area.. Some lift noted with this feature.... High pressure is forecasted to take control of our weather on Monday... So if that works out we could see some sunshine, something we haven't see in sometime... Upper level low pressure over the Southwest US is forecasted to move Northeast and should join forces with a trof dropping down from Canada.. We should start to feel the impacts late Monday night into the Tuesday's time frame.. ATTM severe thunderstorms look to be null.... We will have to see how the timing plays outs with this system... Does look to be a rather rainy day across the FA otherwise...

Extended forecast dis. Wednesday as of right now looks to be dry, however this will be short lived as yet another strong wave/frontal boundary pushes into the area.... This will bring back showers and thunderstorms.. Temps will sure feel the effect of the rain and clouds through out this whole time frame, though models do try to warm them up by weeks end into next week...If this works out we could be in the middle 80s by next Friday and Saturday...However confidence levels are still rather low for this entire forecast....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Cloudy with a chance of showers this afternoon.. Highs either side of 70.. Winds Northwest 5 to 10 MPH.. Tonight cloudy with slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms... Lows in the lower to middle 50s Northwest/North winds 5 to 10 MPH...

***MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT***

Partly cloudy with highs either side of 70 winds North/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH...Showers and a few thunderstorms over night... Lows in the middle 50s.. Winds shifting to East/Southeast...

***TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.. Lows in the middle 50s.

Wednesday looks to be dry, then afterward showers and storms shall greet the FA once again...

So over all look for a off and on showers and thunderstorms through much of next, with warming temps...

The New Richmond tornado

We sure can't forget about this day back on June 12 1899 St. Croix County WI the city of New Richmond had an unprecedented tornado disaster...This tornado claimed 117 lives and injuring over 125 people...The city was nearly wipe off the map... There was a circus in town that day, by time the circus was wrapping up around 4:30 PM...Which may have caused the death total to be higher.. Though back in them days our warning system for severe weather was nil... So lets look at this deadly tornado closer.... The tornado formed over the St. Croix lake as a water spout....The water spout made landfall at that time it became a tornado...This tornado then moved East mainly over rural areas of St. Croix County, did wipe out several farms near Burkhardt and Boardman killing 3 people... The tornado then slammed into New Richmond where it killed 114 people...


This deadly tornado was rated and F5 on the old Fujita scale...The tornado is the 8th highest deadly tornado in American history, and ranks the 34th deadliest tornado in the world.....
Also see this post from last yrs Burkhardt tornado...

http://dirksforecastingcenter.blogspot.com/2009/08/burkhardt-storm-damage-pictures.html


Sources... From my facebook page posted by Meteorology and from Wikipedia..
Just another reason why I storm chase/spot... To help get the warnings out in time and to help save lives...What most people don't know about storm chasing is that is can be very stressful..Your dealing with so many things at one time. I will talk about that later today or this evening....

The forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

***CURRENT CONDITIONS***


SFC OBS this morning shows temps ranging from 50 up North to the upper 50 South....Winds as of this writing are under 10 MPH....Must stations showing under 5 MPH out of the N/NE... Some areas of fog also being reporting... Skies through out the FA are cloudy...Radar is showing another shower and thunderstorm complex this morning... This area is located out in MN SW of the Twin Cities metro area... All this activity is moving East Northeast...

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

This morning on the weather charts we find a frontal boundary that reaches from MI all the way back into CA.... Areas of low pressure/trofs can be found riding said boundary..RUC showing a 1008 MB low pressure over far Eastern KS this is forecasted to move into IA then into far Southern MN... GFS, NAM, along with other models really not helping that much.. So I have decided to use a blend from all for this forecast period... This morning thunderstorm complex was looking like it was riding the boundary area, however have been seeing a shift to the Northeast over the few hrs.. Somewhat drier air has worked into the FA during the overnight hrs.This may cause this complex to weaking as it moves towards the FA... Yesterday I was thinking Sunday was going to be rather nice, well models have slowed movement of trofs down to a crawl which in return shall keep clouds hanging on along with a chance of rain going through the morning hrs... I still think skies will become PC in the afternoon... Confidence level for this forecast is rather low and gets lower next week... Models showing warmer air moving into the are by with highs in the 80s.. Last week we saw the same thing models yelling upper 80s for this weekend and look what happen.... We shall see... Most of next week as it appears right now shall offer the same as the last 2 weeks... Off and in showers and thunderstorms....Now for the pain in the butt forecast....

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Cloudy with a chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two. Highs around 70 winds North/Northeast 5 to 10 MPH...Lows tonight in the middle 50s under mostly cloudy skies then we could see showers and thunderstorms...Wind mainly from the North around 5 MPH

***SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***

Mostly cloudy with a small chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm in the morning...Then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon...Highs around 73 or so... Winds from the Northwest from 5 to 10 MPH....Lows Sunday night under partly cloudy skies fall back into the middle 50s....

***MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT***

More showers and thunderstorms with highs around 70...Lows in the middle 50s....

Forecast for Western & Northwestern WI

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL***


***CURRENT CONDITIONS***

At this 9 am hr temps through out the FA are in the upper 50s to lower 60s... Cold spot is up in Superior with a temp of 48 warm spot is over in Osceola temp of 63... Dewpoints have came up during the over night hrs....Upper 50s to lower 60s Winds still remain out out of the East/Southeast from 7 to 17 MPH with some gusts up to 26 MPH...Radar showing the thunderstorm complex slowly moving out of the area...Back edge now extends from Northeast Polk County through Central Barron, Dunn, and Pepin Counties.. I would expect in a hr or 2 this area of showers and thunderstorms should clear must of the FA all for my far Northeastern parts... Satellite imagery still showing a large area of clouds back through MN....

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Low pressure is forecasted to move East through the area today...Moisture flowing Northwards along with cape around 500 to close to 1500 J/KG....Dewpoints should keep their upward trend into the 60s.... Warm front to the South will try to work Northeast not having much luck... More thunderstorms should fire along said front... Though support appears to be in place thinking is clouds will keep SFC heating at bay, hence lowering the chances of severe thunderstorms... With that said, any thunderstorms that form on either side of the warm front will need to be watched rather close for large hail and damaging winds...Main tornado threat will be South of warm front in the warm sector where wind shear is the greatest.ATTM I'm not really thrilled about severe thunderstorms in my FA.. Heavy rain still looks to be the main problem today and through this evening....1 to 2 inches of rain is forecasted so flooding is still a concern... Sat will still have to keep a chance of showers and storms as the system will still be rather close to the FA...Sunday is looking like the best day...Monday should also be dry...After that more showers and storms.... with temps close to normal..

***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms reforming some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, some hail along with gusty winds this afternoon & evening... Highs around 70 winds South/Southeast 10 to 15 MPH with higher gust in and near thunderstorms...Low tonight fall back into the upper 50s....

***SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT***

Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms going with highs around 70 and lows in the middle 50s.. Winds East to Northeast around 10 MPH...

***SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT***

Skies become PC with a North/Northwest wind around 5 to 10 MPH.. Highs lower to middle 70s with lows in the middle 50s...

Forecast stands

Still to many things that may or may not happen..So best thing to do is let the forecast ride as it....Tomorrow morning I should have a better idea....

Heavy rain still looks likely for later tonight through Friday morning...The severe thunderstorm threat will all hinder on what takes place with tonight's thunderstorm complex...

HWD FOR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN WI

***HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS***



***TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT***

showers and thunderstorms...Some of the thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty wind tonight along with heavy rain. As of right now looks like 1 to 2 inches with some spots picking up close to 3 inches if not more... So flooding may become a concern to night.....

***FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT***

Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning...Appears right now heavy rain will be the main concern Friday morning....

Friday afternoon into Friday evening strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible...Upper level support is there, however limiting factors will be the ongoing MCS and cloud cover...If this can clear out of the area thunderstorms that form again could become severe...

Main threat from any thunderstorms that do become severe would be large hail and damaging winds..... Will have more updates through out the day as more info flows in.....

The forecast for Western and Northwest Wisconsin...

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS & HEAVY RAINFALL***

***FORECAST DISCUSSION***

Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to move in from MN, already radar is showing a rather large area of showers and storms over parts of SW MN up into Western and West Central MN...A few showers and storms are found up in Pine, Aitkin, Morrison, and Todd Counties...Area of prcip is moving to the East, Northeast.... Low pressure over Eastern CO/Western KS is forecasted to lift Northeast into MN during the day on Friday...As this does moisture will be on the increase along with instability PWS values also increase to around 1.75 to 2.00 inches Friday and Saturday....This would lead to rainfall amounts around an inch or two with some areas picking up close to if not more that 3 inches of rain...Now as far as severe thunderstorms go...There will be some problems that will need to be work out... First off would be SFC heating if we can get a few hours of sunshine we would have a better chance at severe thunderstorms...Will depend on how fast tonight's MCS move out....Also at the 700 MB level models showing a rather warm push of air this may cause some capping issues...Thinking that should be over Southern MN and SW WI....Temps at the 700 MB level soar into the teens on Friday...LIS do increase to around -2 c Dewpoints will on the way up during this time frame should be into upper 50s to lower 60s or so by tonight.... Did not use severe wording in the forecast ATTM...

***TODAY***

Showers and a few thunderstorms likely this afternoon highs around the upper 60s to lower 70s... Winds 5 to 10 MPH out of the South/Southeast.

***TONIGHT***

Showers and thunderstorms likely some thunderstorms could produce heavy rain along with some small hail and gusty winds.. Lows around 60 or so... Winds Southeast around 15 MPH higher in and around thunderstorms...

***FRIDAY***

Showers and thunderstorms to start your day. Heavy rain possible.. Then showers and thunderstorms still likely in the afternoon. Some storms may produce large hail and strong winds....Highs around 70 to 75.. Winds South around 10 to 15 MPH.. Higher gusts in and around thunderstorms...