No change to my FCST....

Sorry I was late with this...Slept in to 6 AM the first time in years I did that!...No Amy I did not change my mind on the FCST...

Forecast problems...Today wind temps...Friday timing of cold front will depend if thunderstorms become severe or not...Temps fall back to below norms to start the new work week......
Warm front pushed through the areas early last night around 9 - 10 PM Winds have been increasing all night long as a strong WAA kicked in..This morning some sprinkles have been dotting the landscape

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Very windy conditions will great all this morning....Area of sprinkles now clearing the FA...Southern areas will still some off and on Sprinkles/light showers over the next hour or so...Temps in the middle to upper 40s with a few areas hitting the lower 50s...DPS still rather dry with 20s and 30s...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

WAA well under it's way this morning as a 1020MB high pressure off to our Southeast over the OH area is pumping in warmer temps on Southerly winds....Meanwhile we find a cold front over parts of ND,MT area...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

High pressure will be control of our weather...Strong Southerly winds will pump temps up into the middle 70s,winds are going to a problem for those who drive high profile vehicles or boaters..Wind are forecast to 15 to 25 MPH with gust hitting the 30 32 MPH range...Tonight will be remarkably warm was Southerly winds will still be rather strong across the FA temps fall only into the middle 50s...Wind 10 to 20 MPH with gust still reaching 30 MPH will be possible.....

FRIDAY....

The problem day which has everyone talking about severe thunderstorms....Well Am still having a hard time buying into....First lets talk about models and Soundings...Then my thoughts to this whole thing.....
Models that is some of them have slowed the cold front down by a few hours or so...By 00z Friday front is only into the NW 1/3 of MN..We also see a 993 MB low pressure out over SD,which models did not show yesterday attm....By 06z Friday cold front still not making to much movement to the SE,however said low makes into Central SD by this time frame...By 12z cold front knocking on the door step of WI with said low over SW MN...CAPE sitting around 1500 to 2000 K/JG LI up to around -4 - -7 H85-H5 Lapse rate 7.4 C/KM..BRN SHEAR around 8.0...CIN is around -71,and convection temps around the upper 80s to around 90..Model still show DPs hitting the 50 to 55...By looking at all of that I would have to agree severe thunderstorms would be possible.....Ok my thoughts on this...I still feel models are over doing the rich GOM moisture this far North..Second there will be strong cap over head,700 MB temps in the +5...Cin is to high along with the convection temps...Plus the timing of the cold front is still up in the air on all of the models,that it's self will have a big impact on the severe weather threat...I still think cold front will push through the area well before prime time heating sets forth...So I'm still going to run with my FCST I had issued yesterday and the day before...See below for that.....I still will have time to update this if things keep looking better later today or tonight...AS of right now I'm not buying into the SPC'S thinking on this....Only area I can buy into would down in IA and Southwestern part of WI.!

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Cold front hangs up South of the area,waves are forecasted to move along the frontal boundary,This will cause moisture to over ride the front.....Looks like a wet weekend on tap!