Forecast(MY AFD)

Forecast problems...Major winter storm to our South...Winds....Temps....
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
Temps this morning starting out rather cool middle 20s for the most part,Lower 30s through out Northern MN were clouds held longer,For the most part still cloudy over in parts of my MN FA...While my WI FA is mainly clear...Winds are light out of the w/NW....

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning's weather stars a 1018 MB high pressure sitting over the FA.This has allowed for skies to clear out nicely for most of the FA,however satellite imagery is showing clouds starting to stream in from the SW.We also find the co star 989 MB low pressure over Eastern CO/Western KS...This low will become the star today...We also find an areas of 1030 MB Arctic high pressure in Northern parts of Saskatchewan Canada...By now you are all saying fine and dandy,what does that all mean for us...Well I will tell you...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Main focus will be on the major winter storm By 18z today 996 MB low pressure is forecasted to move into Western parts of KS Low is forecasted to move into Northern MO/Southern IA by 12z Sun..By 12z Mon low is forecasted to be into NE OH....
For the most part models are agreeing in this storm track..Biggest question I had was how far North to bring the snow...My thinking is as of now will bring light snows/flurries into my WI areas through out this period as the low lifts Northeast...Main area to see snow would be in my Southern zones....Barron,Rusk,and Sawyer Counties....Winds will be on the increase during this time frame as pressure gradients crank up between the low to our South/Southeast and Arctic high pressure to our North/Northwest.....Strongest winds should be found over my WI FA...Winds at times could gust to near 30 MPH.....Once said low moves out of the area Arctic high pressure builds in....Keep below norms in the temp dept for the start of the new work week...

TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Really not to much to talk about in this time frame as high pressure will be camping out...Temps do slowly warm back to norms as we head through the work week,and into the weekend...I do have temps in the lower 40s for the weekend that may be on the cool side...Will change them if needed in tomorrow's forecast.....

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY 14 THROUGH MONDAY 20....

We start this period with temps around norms...Nice warm up kick in around Wed the 15 ..Temps could sore into the middle 50s..As an area of low pressure moves into Canada form the high plains..This will draw warm air into the area...We have a shot at 60s in our Southern,and Central areas....50s up North...Dewpoint sore into the upper 40s to around 50..on Southerly winds..Also models showing another low pressure forming in NE and Moving Northeast towards SE WI this will help to bring warm and humid air into parts of the FA..If this all pans out we may very well be dealing with our first bout of severe thunderstorms some where close to home..Temps still look to warm after the passage of the storm system...So with any luck spring will be here to stay.Back to this possible severe weather event...It is to far out to really forecast this,however I'm going to give it a shot...
We do see dewpoints increase to the upper 40s to lower 50s Wed/Thru time frame PWS increase to and to around an inch through out my Central and Southern zones of MN and all of my WI zones...LIS are forecasted to be from 0 to -2 or so Winds at the SFC forecasted to out of the South and than out of the SW from the SCF to 850 MB level 0-70 MB AGL CAPE is forecasted to run around 500 to 700 J/KG Some concerns that could hamper this possible severe weather event..Little in a way of CAP and CIN...This may very well lead to small storms taken the show before prime time heating of the day takes place.If that happens there will to much cloud cover around to get good SFC heating cranking up...Again this is so far out there it is nearly impossible to forecast..However it does have our eye on it....We shall see....