Friday, April 3, 2009

Forecast

Forecast problems...Snowstorm to our South and below norm temps through out much of the forecast cycle...Then above norm temps for a period in the longer term...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps in the lower to middle 30s are greeting early morning risers...All of our area is reporting Cloudy skies at this hour,Looking at the satellite image this confirms this...We do see a clearing trend in MN per SFC OBS and satellite..So except that to move in over the next few hours....

SFC ANALYSIS....

High pressure though a bit weak is centered over Western MN this morning...A storm system centered over South/Southeastern IN ...Meanwhile we see our next trouble maker now pushing into the Rockies....

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.....

High pressure will be control of our weather through this time frame...Clouds that have reblanket the area over night show begin to scour out through out the morning...Skies shall become partly cloudy as the 850-500 MB REL HUM drops to 30% to 40%..My far Northern areas may see more clouds as REL HUM still holding around 60 to 70% that would suggest mostly cloudy wording up there.Plus side to the clouds last night they helped keep temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s,warmer than what was forecasted,however that won't help us today as North/Northwest winds blowing across a rather deep snow up stream will keep us cooler than what may have been...I feel temps in the lower 40s up North..Middle 40s elsewhere's.May see some upper 40s across the Southern FA..Tonight high pressure still over head...Skies should still remain partly cloudy..Low shall fall back into the middle 20s Central Southern areas upper 20s shall prevail....Up North lower 20s look great..Saturday Lower 40s for the Northern and Central areas,while middle 40s far Southern areas,under partly sunny skies....

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.....

We will see a storm system getting it act going over the four corners region...By 12z Saturday 992 MB low is forecasted to move into Eastern CO/Western KS...By 00z Sunday said low is forecasted to be around Central KS.This low will also shoot out a trof through NE up into SW WI......Low is forecasted to move into Northern MO then through Central IL then onto Central IN...So what does this all mean for the FA....Well our far Southern zones have the best chance at seeing accumulating snow..Areas South of Eau Claire...Meanwhile my Central and Northern areas should see some light snow/flurries....Should not see any snowfall amounts in these areas...Meantime a 1038 Arctic high pressure will be building into the area so winds will become a problem as pressure gradients crank up..Winds will have a impact on the whole FA,could see winds gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH at times on Sunday ....Sat night Lows in the middle 20s North and Central while our Southern areas basking in the upper 20s...All areas should be locked under cloudy skies...Sunday will bring in snow through the FA...See above...High on Sunday middle 30s across the entire forecast area...Lows Sunday night dip into the middle 20s South,with lower 20s Central and North....Monday still kept snow chances alive for all areas...I still may pull that from the Central and Northern areas later,will wait for a few more runs to decide that....Temps in the middle to upper 30s shall rule through the whole FA...Lows Monday night drop into the Middle teens North to upper teens to lower 20s Central,last but not lest Middle 20s Southern areas....

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
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Arctic high pressure will modify by the end of this period,See right above for low for Monday night.....
Tuesday we only warm into the Lower 40s North and Central ..Middle 40s South...Low on Tuesday night lower 20s North and Central with middle 20s South....Wed temps take a hike in the right direction...High will range from the Middle 40s North to the middle to upper 40s Central...Upper 40s South...May see a few lowers 50s in the Southern areas...Will all be depend on snow cover..Low through this time frame will range form the lower to middle 20s North...Middle to upper 20s South...

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY 10 THROUGH SUN 19.........

We see yet another storm system moving out of the 4 corners area,once again this system looks like it will remain South of the area..Highs on Friday should be around the lower to middle 40s....
Highs for the weekend look to be warm with 40s and 50s..How long will that last? lets find out shall we....By the 13th, models showing temps heading for the 60s maybe a few 70s close by..So is this the start of spring? well not really,however temps should be at or above norms through out much of this time frame,before we cool back off to below norms by the end of this time frame....What is interesting if models are right this far out we may be dealing with some severe weather on Wed the 16 th...That remains to be seen...Note...This far out it is really hard to forecast severe thunderstorms,heck just even hard to forecast any weather that far out...Though it will be something we will watch over the next week....