Sunday, April 19, 2009

This frecast sure can bust,I won't mind it!

Cooler temps on tap for today through early next week...Much needed rainfall/snowfall also in the forecast...NE MN could pick up 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight into Monday,while NW WI could pick up 1 to 2 inches of snow tonight through Monday,while our Southern Counties of our WI FA could pick up to 1/2 inch of snow through the same time frame...Then a nice warm up on the way from midweek until the upcoming weekend...Showers and thunderstorms move into the picture by weeks end...Some of the storms could become strong to severe,however this far out I have decided to leave strong wording out of the FCST,and only ran with a 20% chance.....After that system moves through then we cool off some for next Sunday....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this morning are in the middle 30s through out much of the area some lower 40s in my WI zones...Some light snow being reported up in Silver Bay,while these areas are reporting mixed precip....Two Harbors,Big Fork,Other stations coming in with light rain/drizzle...Over in my WI zones no mixed precip being reported just light rain....Winds for the most are light out of the North/Northeast....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather is staring a much welcomed low pressure over Eastern IA/Western IL.with a trof reaching North into MN. cold front dropping South from said low to another low pressure over Eastern KS,Meanwhile we see a large high pressure over Hudson Bay Canada like we have for the past few weeks...Also another large area of high pressure covering the Western States.....

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

1011mb low over IA is forecasted to move into Northern IL by 12z today as this does we see a clipper like system dropping out of Canada..By 00z tonight we see the low over IL washing out as the low over Southern IL takes center stage...Meantime clipper like system moves into NW MN...By 06z Monday low should be over Central MN...and the low to our South is forecasted to lift NE into Southern IN then into MI by Monday night....Both of these systems will assure us much needed rainfall over the FA..Better chance at seeing .25 inches would be over our Southern FA of MN and WI...Systems will drag colder air in this evening...We shall see rain mixing with and changing over to snow in NE MN and NW WI....See above for info, as it is all ready covered......Temps will be below norms through this time frame....

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

Am going to keep rain/snow going over my snow belts of WI and up in NE MN. for Tuesday....Other than that the rest of the area should dry back out with warming temps.....
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FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Here is when things get interesting...Models are not in good agreement this far out,no surprise there....They both show a big warm-up so went with that thinking....However GFS is showing the cold front moving through the area and colder temps for Friday...ECMWF model has the cold front lingering back and not pushing through the areas until sometime on Sunday morning...
Either way looks like showers and thunderstorms are in the card for late week into the weekend....Some storms in our Southern areas could become a little grumpy....We will watch this as models hash out all the details through the upcoming work week....

LONGER TERM APR 28 through May 5.....

We start the period with temps on the cool side,below norms again..40s and 50s across the FA,,We do warm up by Thur the 30 with temps in the 50s and 60s..Then back into the colder air we fall again for the WI fishing opener...Looks like we will stay cool through the rest of this time frame...How about precip.....Looks like a rather wet period coming up with systems moving through the area...