Forecast problems...Showers and thunderstorms...Than temps cooling back off for the weekend....Still no real chance of severe thunderstorms....
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
Stations are reporting clear to partly cloudy skies this morning....Temps in the middle 30s to upper 30s through out the FA...Winds are rather light compared to yesterday....
SFC ANALYSIS.....
This morning's weather charts show a deep area of low pressure/trof over the far Northeastern part of UP of MI....We also find a warn front reaching South from a 1000 MB low pressure over Canada..Warm front sits in Eastern MT down into SW SD then down to MW NE.....
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY......
FA still is locked under a NW flow aloft..This will still keep temps down today,though with more sunshine temps should warm a few more degrees that yesterday....High pressure moving into the area will also help bring lighter winds to the area...Highs today should reach the middle 50s most areas..Tonight strong WAA kicks into play as winds back to the SE this will allow for lows to be warmer...Am looking at middle to upper 30s....On Thursday temps really take off .H85 temps increase to around the 20c which will yield most areas with temps in the middle to upper 70s...Will run with a chance of some reggae showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon,however it does appear a cap will form as 700 MB temps edge up to around + 5c Moisture not looking the best on Thur also so I may very well pull the rain out of the forecast later this afternoon's update...Winds will also be increase Could see another windy day like yesterday with winds up to 25 MPH along with gusts into the 30s MPH range,however it will be a warm wind...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.....
Cold front starts to make it's way closer and then through the area....A few things look interesting for thunderstorms....
Lets talk about this first...Moisture does start to increase Thur night with SFC 2m dps getting into the upper 40s lower 50s..However with cap still in place showers and storms shall be held back to along the front where the best forcing resides...Also post frontal showers and storms looks like a good bet....Lows Thur night will be remarkable warm with lows forecasted to be in the middle 50s....So far no indications for severe thunderstorms over the FA....Lets talk about Friday...
First off the SPC does have Eastern MN under a SLGT risk for severe thunderstorms see there thinking on their site....THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY PART OF MY FA......Cold front was been slowed down by Models over the last few runs..However front will have pushed through most of my FA by mid to late morning/early afternoon....Highs in the Northern and Central areas should range from the 50s to lower 70s...Southern areas from around EAU and points South temps once again in the middle 70s....Ok lets talk about whether or not severe thunderstorms will rear their ugly heads.....CAPE does increase to around 1000 to 1500 J/KG SFC 2m DPS increase to around 50 to 55 out ahead of the cold front SFC to 3km agl Lapse rates are up in the 5 to 6 C/KM mainly over MN..SFC to 8km agl wind shear is on the order of 30 KTS........The only problem to this will be two things that will put the stop to chance of severe thunderstorms...1 To many clouds which will hold down SFC heating..As the cold front makes it way through the FA,even in my Southern areas...2...I still have a feeling models are over doing the deep GOM moisture flowing into the area for Friday as DPS right now are in the middle 20s...3....Very little forcing out ahead of the cold front...Most of that is right along and behind the front it's self..4 strong cap out ahead of the front..Now if I was to the best areas to see any strong to severe thunderstorms..I would say points South of EAU,and that is still very slim....Will see what this afternoon runs show.....
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....
SW winds aloft will keep the area rather active with off and on showers...Highs cool back into the lower to middle 50s from North to South....With lows in the lower 30s North middle 30s elsewhere's....Front to our South should remain in that area,Waves are forecasted to move along the frontal boundary,this will insure the FA with off and on chances of rain showers...So of the rain could be mixed with snow from time to time mainly during the over night hours...Tue temps warm back up middle 50s North to around 60s elsewhere's....
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