AFD/thinking on severe storm threat below the AFD

Forecast headaches..Lots of them for today and tonight However much more needed rain on it's way for the FA....So lets get right to it..

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps staring off in the 30s and 40s across entire FA...Radar showing some returns over WI areas,along with an area North/Northwest of Brainerd MN,,,

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we find a 1001 low pressure system over CO...Also another waves of low pressure through out much of the Central and Northern Rockies...A 1031 High pressure sitting over SE Hudson Bay...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

System over CO is forecasted to move into the eject into the Central pains this morning...This is forecasted to push a warm front North..Later today Low is forecasted to move into Western IA then Northeast through NW WI...Problem is how far to bring the warm front North before the low slams a cold front into the area....Thinking is as of right now...Will bring warm front North into my far Northern areas of WI..Then will time the cold front to push through that area sometime after midnight LLJ really cranks up today through NW WI models showing this kicking up to 50 KTs..Lets talk about my MN zones as them will the easiest...
Rain is forecasted to keep moving into the area today..At this point in time looks like a 1/4 inch of rain for most areas...However my Southern MN FA could very will see 1/2 to 3/4 inches of rain... Tonight I did run with a mixed of rain,snow..little in away of accumulations are forecasted...For the most part I did leave out thunder for the Northern areas...Will run with it in my Central and Southern areas of MN...Thunderstorms should behave them self's as the best forcing occurs in my WI areas...Lets talk about that area...Did run with showers and thunderstorms in all of my WI zones...Greatest threat for heavy rainfall should be along my Southern Counties...As much as 1.50 inches of rain could fall from today through tonight...What makes no sense at all is the SPC is running with slight risk of severe thunderstorms just South of my WI FA...Then they also have all of my WI area in a 2% chance of tornadoes,5% chance of large hail.. See there forecast for info...I disagree with them for the following reasons..there will to many clouds through out the area today..This will hold down the instabilities..Lapse rates are looking rather nice however,and some signs of upper level support...If the area can break into some sunshine this afternoon this allow for SFC heating to get under way,which in return will allow for the instabilities to come up,if this happens we very well may dealing with another Friday evening weather event later today...We will keep a close eye on it..However at this time looks like just heavy rainfall....Also temps will be held down with the forecasted cloud cover....
Winds will become a problem for the entire FA....Winds could gust up to 30 MPH later today into night...

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Will keep rain/snow going over my Northern areas of MN and part of my far Northern WI zones...As some backwash moisture still hanging around....Rest of the areas should be breaking free of system this will allow for rather nice time frame,temps still below norms though...Wind still will remain a problem.Highest winds shall be found over NE MN..

LONGER TERM....

Did run with a slight chance of rain through out much of this time frame...Showers in the North with showers and thunderstorm in the central and Southern zones of MN/WI....I did keep temps on the cool side....

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...

Once again as I did touch on this a little in the AFD...I really do buy into the SPC thinking...However points South of EAU once again would have the best chances at severe thunderstorms,if that area can break into some sunshine and get the SFC heating machine going..Something I will be watch later this morning into the afternoon hours...If Sunshine does happen looks like I will be heading back into them areas once again...Right now I have no plans to do this,as I feel the severe weather threat is way to low attm...Though I do may stuff ready to fly on the last min......SO TO RECAP ATTM I FEEL THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MY FA....