Tuesday, April 7, 2009

It's time to play the flip flop game.....

Forecast headaches....Temps through out the whole FCST cycle....With off and precip chances next week....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps greeting the early morning risers in the middle 20s to a few upper 20s...High clouds moving into the area,for the most part clear to partly cloudy skies rule....

SFC ANALYSIS......

996 MB low pressure over Northern NY bringing precip through out the Northern States....Meanwhile large high 1023 high pressure sitting over ND..Large ridge of high pressure controlling the weather through out much or the 3/4 of the CONUS....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

For the most part FCST cut and dry....However the main battle today was how warm to go with temps...High pressure in control of our weather will assure us with a mostly sunny sky today....Winds will be lighter today,still out of the NW..So have chosen to keep temps in the lower 40s for my Northern and Eastern forecast areas,Meanwhile will run with middle 40s through out my Central FA...Will go with upper 40s in my Southern Counties.Points South of Eau Claire...Tonight temps throttle back into the upper 20s through out my Central and Southern sections of the FA,up North and out East middle 20s look fine under partly cloudy skies..00z Wed we see a cold front dropping into ND/far NW MN This system is moving rather fast so by 06z Wed cold front shall be knocking on our door step..By 12z Wed cold front clears the area...Will see a few more clouds on Wed,may see some LES on the South shore of Lake Superior,other than that cold front comes through dry..Winds will be a little stronger on Wed from the NW...Will run with the same set up with temps as I did for Tuesday...On Thur will warm temps a few degree through out the forecast..So middle 40s Central,Northern,and Eastern Sections...Upper 40s to 50 in the Southern areas..Again points South of Eau Claire....Lows Thur night lower to middle 20s North,Central,and Easter sections...While our Southern areas bask in the upper 20s for lows....Friday temps warm up more Middle 40s North..Upper 40s Central and Eastern areas..Southern areas head into the lower 50s.....Sat...Upper 40s shall rule our Northern areas along with our Eastern areas...Central areas upper 40s here also...May hit 50...Southern areas warm into the middle 50...Lower 50s rule most of the FA on Sun...Middle 50s in the Southern,and Central areas...Lows upper 20s to lower 30s possible...

LONGER TERM APR 13 THROUGH APR 23......

Note Models have been playing the flip flop game in the longer term over the past few days.Mainly with temps..So confidence level for this period rather low..Until we see more of a consisted pattern taking shape I would not hold this long term FCST to heart...As this FCST period now shows warmer temps,and many of us are hoping for it..Bottom line here is don't buy into this just yet...
We start the period in the lower 50s on Monday We do cool off some for Tuesday and Wed...40s seem the way to run for those days...middle to upper 40s seem the way to run from 15 through 17...Upper 40s to low 50s for 18 and 19...Models hinting a big warm up at the end of the time frame....Again we are playing the flip flop game and the models are playing it hard..One day the longer term is warm than the next day the long term is cold,now we are back into the warm side....One of the reasons why Forecasters hate doing longer term FCST......How about precip chances....Will be off and on chance of precip..Some which may be snow during the over night hours...Will worry about all this later...See above...