Monday, January 17, 2011

Forecast for Western/Northwestern WI

Not to much to talk about in short term and middle term forecast cycle…Arctic air will set up camp once again over the FA….This won’t be the coldest we see so far..Back in Dec we dipped to -24 here at the office and the Rice Lake airport reported -20…. That was the rule back then… This time around them temps may fall by the way side… More on this below…


As of 4 PM Skies are cloudy with some flurries/FRZ mist/fog… Temps are in the upper teens to lower 20s Winds for the most part are light to calm…


SFC analysis we find a 999 MB low pressure system over Northwestern IA and a week 1003 MB just North of Northeastern MN more like a short wave…Meantime we find a Arctic high of 1025 MBS over the Northwestern part of Alberta Canada….We also find a few short waves scattered throughout the SD, ND,MN, and North.. These short waves are rather weak and not much in the way of moisture with them/for them to work with so will run with flurries through the rest of today and tonight…. High pressure builds into the area for Tuesday and much of Wednesday….Next chance of flurries comes in Wednesday night as an Arctic cold front slams into and through the FA…. Will clear skies out Thursday and keep them that way through Friday night…. Models showing another system trying to move towards the area, however attm will run with cloudy skies as the cold air will be moisture starved. Thursday night/Friday morning cold end up be the coldest air thus far this winter… If we can keep clear skies toward sunrise temps could easy fall to -30 to -20 below throughout the FA,even colder in our colder spots. If skies become partly cloudy this will hold temps up in the middle - teens below. Once again this will all be dependant on if the system can spread clouds in at a faster timing…..


First part of this time frame a little tricky as far as temps go. Northwesterly flow is still forecast late this weekend, however ECMWF and GFS shows a upper level ridge building in the Western states….This does have signs of trying to reach our area…. However like a few time this winter we have seen this and the real warmth remains well to our West…. Thinking is this could very well happen again… Next chance of snow appears to come in around Monday the 24/Tuesday the 25 time frame… Mean while the upper level ridge pushes temps to near if not above 30 in far Western SD and parts of Western ND..By later in the day on the 26 a 1025 MB high pressure slips into ND…. There will still be some short waves to ride Southeast on the Northwesterly flow aloft over our FA… So will keep a chance of light snow through Wednesday morning..Upper level ridge builds more Eastwards on Thursday the 27th Almost knocking on Southwestern part of MN’S door… Will bring in another chance of light snow come Friday the 28th Temps by Jan 29th will warm into the 30s across MN… Thinking is they will hold in the upper 20s across our FA… Upper level ridge gets a push back towards the South and Southwest an a 1039 high pressure system start to build into the Northern plains, will also have a chance of light snow here on Sunday the 30th. Will hold a chance of light snow through Monday the 31 as short waves will dive South out of Canada.. Could be signs of another Arctic blast heading this way to start the month of FEB.. Then it looks like we shall begin a thaw….
So to recap…. No big snowstorms in sight…. No long lasting Arctic air in sight, and last but not least no big warm-ups…Though temps will be warmer for a spell the week of the 24th.

Your forecast..

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy some flurries…Winds North/Northwest 10 to 15 MPH. Lows around 0

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy highs around 10 North/Northwest winds 5 to 10 MPH

TUESDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy skies lows around -10

WEDNESDAY….Partly cloudy highs around 8

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…Mostly cloudy chance of flurries lows around -5.

THURSDAY…. Partly sunny cold highs around 3…..

THURSDAY NIGHT… clear to partly cloudy skies…Lows around -30 to -20

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY….Mostly cloudy highs around 10 above… Lows in the single digits below zero…..