Friday, January 14, 2011

Short term forecast number 1

For the most part light snow is now falling throughout much of the FA… There is a heavier band of snow that is setting up over Barron County looking out the office window we do have heavy snow now falling….

Looking at the radar trends and RUC data along with SFC data… We shall see this snow hang around into the over night hrs…. Looking upstream in MN we see another heavy snow band taking shape… This will drift into my Northern and Northern Central areas…. So forecast map looks to be right on target…. Was thinking about adding some 5 inch amounts…. However will just word it right here…. The 5 inch amount shall be throughout the 2 to 4 inch amounts on the map… Cumberland, Rice Lake, and over to Bruce and North of this line has the best chance at seeing around 5 inches of snow….Will not change the 1 to 3 inch area as this looks to be right in line with all the data we are looking at….Best forcing, lift along with dendritic growth zone sets up to the North of the 1 to 3 inch forecasted area… The area with the 1 to 3 inches forecasted will see light to mod snow with some heavier snows from time to time…Meanwhile the 2 to 4 inch with 5 inch amounts shall see mod to heavy snows kicking in after dark….That will be the main snow event….. Not saying there won’t be some heavy snow this afternoon,as we already see mod to heavy snows falling here at the office….Just saying after dark will be the main show….