Updated forecast..A few changes needed....

***UPDATED FORECAST***
Forecast for the most will stand the way it is...However will take the chances of showers and storms out of FCST more details on this later....

TONIGHT...

Another spoke of energy spinning around the pesky upper level low over the GRTLKS is moving through Northern WI,this will slowly slide through the FA..So see no reason why to pull showers out of the FCST...Radar is showing this very well,along with the vis sat image....Temps still FCSTD to fall into upper 40s to lower 50s...Winds should slack off to around the 5 to 10 MPH range....

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY....

Upper level low does pull off the E/NS and starts to fill/open up...Still around my FA clouds should prevail through much of the day..This will hold highs in the in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wed...Wed night still should see MSTLY CLDY skies lows fall into the lower 50s most areas...Upper level low looses it's control on the FA Thur through Fri...Setting the stage for sunny skies and temps warming closer to norms for this time of year..Middle 70s to maybe upper 70s for both days...Lows should hold in the middle 50s....

JULY 4....

I have pulled showers and storms from the FCST as the ECMWF has come around to the thinking of the GFS...Not really sure why the changes,however with both models seeing eye to eye,have no reason to keep showers and thunderstorms alive....So good news for the campers...Along with the fireworks to light up the evening sky across the FA Saturday night....One of those weekends that us forecasters love the split flow...So stress level has come down a few notches...

LONGER TERM.....
I will leave stand the way it is...As long range models still showing more heat and humid conditions to take hold of the FA starting midweek....See below for info.....

Pervious long term forecast...

LONGER TERM.... (JULY 5 THROUGH JULY 16)

Sunday the 5 through Monday the 6...Should be dry with temps still in the upper 70s lows in the middle 50s....
Models are hinting at big changes coming in the weather pattern....Temps by Thur the 9 reach for the upper 80s maybe lower 90s..Temps are FCSTD to hold in the 80s with days into the 90s through out the rest of this time frame..Dewpoints will be on the increase, so it will be getting more humid as we work through this long term FCST...Looks like an active period coming up with showers and thunderstorms....

Special note....

Tonight I have two guests in the weather office.I'm happy they came over before 8 tonight!!..First one is Tammy which if you read this blog you already know her by her comments in the cbox area, she loves the weather,and is a upcoming storm chaser..Second is her Dad Randy who's is very supportive of Tammy in her dreams of becoming storm chaser as a hobby..She would like to become a forecaster for one of the news networks...Also Randy along with Tammy love to fish so we all have been fishing off and on...I knew Randy from the rink when I worked there,knew Tammy since she was like 5 again from the rink...So yeah, as fate would have it we were all able to re become friends once again, after not seeing them for like 4 or 5 yrs..So I guess I'm able to be found on the internet,whether that's a good thing or not I'm not sure yet.....Anyway both of them wanted to see how I come up with a forecast..To make a long story short,they never knew how much work goes into coming up with a forecast...
So if anyone out there would like to sit in and watch me do a forecast just email, that can be found in my profile...I have no problem with that..Only thing I ask that you write down your questions then after I have the forecasted posted,then I will go back and answer them and explain why this why that...With looking at the computer models...

Forecasting 101..Fronts

Many have asked me how I find fronts whether they are warm,cold,and stationary by looking at the computer models...Well there are a few tricks of the trade that all forecasters use..Here is a few things I look for on short term,middle and long term models..First I look for sharp temperature gradients,remember the front will be along the warm side of the sharpest temp gradient...Also another indicator would be a strong dewpoint gradient,this one is a little more tricky...However the front will be on the high side of this gradient...Look at the isodrosotherms,or what forecasters call lines of constant dewpoint temps....We also look at the 3 hr pressure tendencies or 3 hr pressure changes.This is one of the most important things is short term forecasting..That would another new post...Another thing us forecasters look for would be a sharp wind direction change.....Ok let me talk about the 4 types of fronts...First the cold front...A cold front as a rule will bring colder air into one's FA,however sometimes it will only drop the dewpoints,and shift the wind to the West/Northwest,depending on if the front is moving in from that direction..Cold front as a rule will have strong lifting along and just ahead of it.This cold produce thunderstorms some could be strong to severe..That is if the other severe weather dynamics are in place...Second the warm front...Warm fronts force air up and over the colder air.This would produce more widespread rain showers,though if enough forcing gets going thunderstorms could blow up along the front it's self...This would be the case is we have a strong cap South of the front...Third is the stationary front....Not much to say about this type of front,as the name it's self says it all..A frontal boundary that is not moving..Still lift along this frontal boundary would lead to showers and thunderstorms..Strong to severe on the warm side...Last but not least the occlude front..We don't hear to much about these fronts,however what it is..When a cold front overtakes the warm front..When this happens the warm air is pushed above the SFC...This could lead to showers and thunderstorms..However severe storms would be unlikely with it as warmer air being forced above the SFC,this may warm the upper levels along with little cap to hold down the weaker showers and thunderstorms...
The above is a fast way of finding fronts...Or one can cheat and watch TWC or looks at other maps on the net...But then you are not really forecasting,just using someone Else's analysis...

Forecast

Side note before I get the forecast...I know I haven't been doing any forecasting over the last few days...Been busy with other things...The life of a storm chaser..


Forecast concerns temps through the rest of the work week and into the 4 th of July weekend...Another problem will be the cloud cover along with chances of showers today and tonight..Then thunderstorms for Friday night through Saturday night.Big warm up in the longer term FCST...So something for everyone..No snow though!..More details below.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps at this 5 AM hr starting in the lower to middle 50s across my Northern and Central FA...Meantime my Southern area temps in the middle to upper 50s...Dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s are the rule this morning..Winds this morning range from 7 to 10 MPH under CLDY Skies.....Some lgt rain showing up on radar up around the Hayward area....

SFC ANALYSIS...

Upper level low spinning it wheels over the GRTLKS area..Also a trof moving through WI attm...Another one ready to move into the FA....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Another early fall day on tap once again..Would think temps will be about the same as yesterday...So 5 to 10 degrees below normal again...Am going to run with lower 60s across the FA...May be a degree or two warmer Southern areas,may not get out of the 50s in my Northern areas...Will be cooler along the shores of Lake Superior.Lows tonight upper 40s to lower 50s See no reason to change them..Low pressure over the GRTLKS area will keep the North/Northwest flowing into the area keep the cold air alive for today and tonight...Models do show this pesky low moving E/NE and slowly filling in the next day or 2...Looks like another system coming South around said low should kick of some showers today and holding into the over night hours,just like yesterday....Winds will still be a problem today and tonight..10 to 20 MPH with gust 25 to 30 MPH will be possible...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

We start WED still rather cold for this time of year...Highs mainly in the 60s lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s....Still should be MSTLY CLDY...THUR and FRI setting up to be 2 rather nice days under MSTLY sunny skies With more sunshine FCSTD will see temps respond..Heading for the upper 70s Lows hold in the middle to upper 50s..

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

Here is were we run into a few problems...GFS and ECMWF are not seeing eye to eye on the next system.However they both seems to agree that there will be rather large area of a neg trof over Canada..Also they do agree on another upper level low forming over the GRTLKS area once again.However temps wont be a cold as they have been..Here is where the problems show up....Lets hash this out...First out of the gates we will address the GFS model....GFS keep most of the moisture South of the FA also keep the Southern jet South into the middle part of the Country...So if this does play out we should see drier air..Meaning no showers or storms....Model of choice which as been for most of this year has been ECMWF...This model has been holding onto it's thinking over the day few days....ECWMF has been showing the Northern jet working along with shortwaves riding along it giving us a chance at showers and thunderstorms through this time frame...Still thinking is it will not be a widespread event...So most areas wont see anything..Nevertheless will run with the chances of showers and storms over this period for now...Temps will be close to norms for the upcoming long weekend....

LONGER TERM.... (JULY 5 THROUGH JULY 16)

Sunday the 5 through Monday the 6...Should be dry with temps still in the upper 70s lows in the middle 50s....
Models are hinting at big changes coming in the weather pattern....Temps by Thur the 9 reach for the upper 80s maybe lower 90s..Temps are FCSTD to hold in the 80s with days into the 90s through out the rest of this time frame..Dewpoints will be on the increase, so it will be getting more humid as we work through this long term FCST...Looks like an active period coming up with showers and thunderstorms....

Website is now updated

Well I decided to update my website this morning...Added the June 27 part 1 part 2 pictures...

June 27 part 2 chase log/pictures

Not to much to say..I was going to go fishing out at silver lake,however after looking at the radar and seeing strong storms over in MN I decide to wait to see what has going to happen with them...Well the storms got into Polk County,I headed out,stop by silver lake to see how many people were out there in case I could go fishing after the storms past...Ended up staying there for a little talking with one of the guys who does fish surveys...I did get out of there and headed west on B then turned South on 10th street..That's where I ended up taken these pictures..Got gust fronted for like the 5 time...That was fun,though the winds were not bad,did get into some more heavy rain...Again I will have the pictures on my website sometime this week..Will try to get them up tomorrow..

Pictures as the storms moved East

This what the storms looked like after they pushed eastwards into the land of the trees(Rusk County) So I decided not to follow them I remember the Ladysmith tornado all to well..So Rusk County is a no chase area....

June 27 chase log part 1

Today started of with showers and thunderstorms,nothing strong or severe,just some heavy rainfall...By mid day the showers/storms pushed East allowing for a few breaks to take place in the clouds..Just enough to fire up a line of strong thunderstorms along a cold front pushing into the area..I had to chase though the storms were not severe however the way the dynamics were setting up it could have happened..The few pictures I will post here where mainly from points North of Barron,Cameron..And points West from a line from Brill.Rice Lake..Some of the other pictures that will be on my website sometime in the upcoming week were taken in about the same local areas...However some did come from around the Cumberland to Prairie Farm...Will have part two..This evening's chase log up tomorrow sometime along with a few pictures...That one was an easy one.....

Strong thunderstorms this afternoon..More on their way.

Well I was going to post some pictures of this afternoon chase,I did head out after the strong thunderstorms...Saw some small hail,gusty winds,and very heavy rain...Well the pictures are going to have to wait as I see radar is showing more strong thunderstorms in Central MN...So I need to decide if I'm going to make a play on them..If so need to get a game plan down..Never know when strong storms can go severe on you,sure don't want to be in the wrong place if that happens...So part one and part two of June 27 chase pictures coming to your computer later this evening, or tomorrow....

Life of a storm chaser/pictures

So you think life of a storm chaser is fun/easy glamours..Well think again..Let me run you through my day/night...First let talk about this week..So far I think I only slept only a total of 4 hrs so far..Last night around 11 or so I got to bed only to get right back up...Did a lightning chase,this time around I busted either darn trees in the way or city lights...I should have said the hell with it,but I didn't trying to get that million dollar shot that never happen..It happens sometimes..Got back home around 3 AM only to get back up to a phone call telling about storms in MN..So got out of bed looked at the radar sure enough..Drank about a pot of coffee,then hit the road..Pictures above from this morning's chase..Ok as a rule my day starts from 3 to 4 AM looking at the latest computer runs..If it looks good on the road by 6 Am...Sometimes I don't get back home until later that night...All depends where I end up at..Yes there are time I go out only to bust, but it happens to the best of us..There are time I don't see sleep for a day or two..Power naps is what I live on on chase days/nights..So if you want to be a storm chaser be ready for lots of sleepless nights/Days..Then you have to deal with people stopping and asking you what you are doing,or asking if "are we going to get a bad storm" Then they want to see all of my equipment,as a rule I don't mind talking to people when in the field,but when there is a storm moving in I really don't have the time for chit chat...Then you are now dealing with people who think you are being rude or an asshole,just cuz you don't have time to talk..So I'm not sure why people think storm chasing is easy/glamours...I will be the first to say it's not.I will also be the first to say I love it!.I know were it all come from...TV programs that don't show you the down times of chasing,only the good parts of it...This morning I decided to call off the chase do to the idiots out there..Plus the chase area was getting harder,more trees and hills as I got into Dunn County..Might have been a good thing..Did end up getting a dying shelf cloud between Chetek and Cameron..So all in all it was a good local chase..Counties covered this morning...Southern/Central Barron,Northern Dunn and Chippewa...Looks like the next chase day will be tomorrow afternoon into the over night hrs...Ok time to put these pictures and yesterday's rainbow and sunset on my website..So yeah a no sleep day for this chaser...Well tonight it will be,after I get back from fishing,yup silver lake here I come after 9:30-10 PM....

Tonight's rainbow/sunset

Another great sunset tonight...Added treat was the rainbow..The rest of the pictures shall be on my website by the weekend...Maybe tomorrow if it hits 90,which looks like a good bet,Firday same 90s once again...

No forecast today

I should have done this sooner,nevertheless there will be no forecasts today..Am working on my website..Adding last night's lightning pictures,along with sunset pictures..So lots of work ahead of me...Already have 5 hrs into this project...I figured I better do this before I get so far behind again...Anyone want to come over and mow my yard ? I have a rider...LOL..Anyway website should be updated in a few more hrs...

Tonight's lightning pictures

Here are just some the rest will be on my webiste sometime tomorrow..

Updated forecast

I still really don't see no reason to make any big changes in on going forecast.Thinking has not changed much about severe thunderstorms...However parts of my Northern FA may see some strong to severe thunderstorms...Best chance at this will be points North of a Webster to Tergo then over to Hayward...Also my Southern FA may get some action,here thinking is points South of a Whitehall over to Black River Falls....Storms over Southern MN have been weaken over the last few radar scans,though storms along the IA,MN border have started to increase....This line of storms is moving East with some Southeast movement now noted....Storms over Central MN have been holding there own so far...These storms are racing off to the Northeast.These storms should not effect my Northern Wi FA,however if back building of the storms start that is what we will have to watch out for..Right there is no sign of this....Central parts of my FA may not see any storms at all...Still will watch it,however severe weather chances in my Central FA looks null once again..

Hot and Humid day on tap....

Forecast problems...Temps,dewpoint temps..Showers and thunderstorms this evening into the over night hrs....So get ready for one hot humid day...

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps at this 7:30 AM hr are in the upper 60s to lower 70s..Dewpoints are right around the air temps some areas of fog still showing up in the SFC OBS..So a warm humid morning to greet everyone...

SFC ANALYSIS...

Shortwave this morning over SD down into Central NE has kicked off an areas of showers and thunderstorms this morning...A CLDFNT sitting over far NW MN down through the Dakotas...Meanwhile a 1013 High pressure is centered over far Northern MI..

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Main concern for day will be the very hot and humid conditions...So lets tackle this first...After areas of fog burn off this morning,which is doing rather fast...We get our self's setup under MSTLY sunny skies...Winds are going to remain rather light through out the day...Highs today should range from 90 to 95 degrees today..Dewpoints climb to upper 60s to lower 70s once again...Dewpoint temps and air temps combined should set the stage for heat indexes ranging from 95 to 102 or so this afternoon..One should drink plenty or liquids today.Try to stay out of the sun as much as possible this afternoon...Check on older people and keep an eye on your kids,family,and neighbors...For those that don't have AC try to get to a place that does...Shopping in a local mall might be a good idea...Folks this heat blast is nothing to joke around with,heat can kill..Also make sure livestock have plenty of water to drink..Best thing to do on days like today is slow down ...Ok now on to problem number two...Thunderstorms /severe thunderstorms....Later this afternoon the CDL FNT out west will push towards the area..Problems is we will have a rather healthy CAP ahead of the FNTL BNDRY...If CAP can be broken we could be dealing with more widespread severe weather event,Model suggests this will not be the case,though...NAM and GFS both agree on MCS forming tonight...GFS is a little more North than NAM...GFS shows the thunderstorm complex forming in South Central MN and moving into the FA...Meantime NAM has the thunderstorm complex forming over SW MN then swings it SE into IA..So will blend them and run with showers and thunderstorms after dark,unless the CAP breaks in the early evening hrs,then we may see a line of storms move into the are before that..As far as severe thunderstorms go..My thinking is Western MN into IA will be the best target area...Still many things can go wrong as a rule with heat ridges...However if and when thunderstorms take off and if they can reach the severe weather thresholds..Main threat would be large hail,damaging winds,and heavy rain...Thinking is the tornado threat will remain over in MN...Still AM not to thrilled about the chances of severe thunderstorms ATTM...Will be watching this as the day unfolds...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Temps still running in the middle to upper 80s through this period..Dewpoints will drop some on Wed but will be short lived as we get back into a return flow of muggy air once again Friday...Wed will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms going through about noon...Once again this will depend on what transpires tonight...Will run with highs in the middle 80s for now,might have to revisit at this later today....Will keep 80s going through Fri...Lows middle 60s seem to be the way to run.....

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY....

Next FNTL BNDRY pushes into the FA Friday night..Another round of showers and thunderstorms sitting on the bar for us...Lows Fri night middle 60s is as low as we can drop them to..Sat....Temps still hold close to the middle 80s with showers and thunderstorms dotting the FA...Some of the models are hinting at some of these storms could become severe...
Sat night will end showers and thunderstorms before midnight....Lows fall below 60 for a chance..Sunday is shaping up to be a nice day under PTLY CLDY skies highs in the lower 80s....Lows in the lower 60s.....Monday temps soar back into the middle 80s once again..Tuesday we may hit the upper 80s to lower 90s once again,also appears more showers and thunderstorms moving into the area later in the day...

Fog

This morning's fog...I know now I got some dust on the lens again,Didn't notice it until I uploaded the pictures..Forecast is on its way...

Fire flies/lightning bugs

Ok so what does this storm chaser do on a warm humid night when he can't go fishing at silver lake cuz of all the people there....Well I decided to try to get pictures of the lightning bugs...

Trying a new thing...

Well after a few years of thinking about this,I have decided to give this a try....As most know I'm trying to break into this freelance photography..Well the avenue I'm going down is a hard one(figure that one out)...I have done rather good with it however there is no way I would be able to give up my fulltime job...Even if all this takes off big time still not sure if I would give up my job...Anyway...Some know I put my storm chasing pictures,Northern light pictures,sunsets,rainbows on DVDS and added background music...From what people tell me they really like it...So here is my thinking....If anyone would like me to make a DVD with your pictures of pets,family,kids,vacations,and what ever events your family has done...I could also take pictures of upcoming events you may have...I could do this for a small price....Which both of us would agree to....The equipment I have...Scanner,3 computers plus a laptop,all the required software to make the DVDS, a Canon digital XT rebel SLR camera,with many lens...I'm not doing this because I need the money...I don't...I'm doing this because I enjoy doing it...I found out keeping pictures on the computer is a bad idea unless you backup the darn thing up every time you add them special monuments....If the computer crashes big time, guess what you may very well lose all you pictures...Through out the years I had people ask me to take pictures of their family, pets, weddings, graduations and other things. I will take pictures of storm damage or any other damage of your property.This is a good thing to have for your records,this way the INS company can't say different...Now is the time for me to take this to the next level...
If interested just shoot me an email..That can be found in my profile..

Lightning chase...Sucked! oh well it was a thunderstorm

Well is what I was dealing with last night,never got any good CG lightning shots,darn fog and haze put a damper on that...Got some sheet lightning...As you can see the fog/haze was moving in fast...These pictures were taken from my yard,before I decide to head South along bloody hwy 8...You read about that in the post below...The one picture of the CC lightning was taken West of Cameron...I'm almost a shame to post that one,as it sucks!,however there it is....

Last night's rainfall amounts and other info

I won't be issuing any forecasts today...Will say this though get ready for hot,and humid conditions through the new work week...
highs middle 80s to lower 90s looks like a good bet..With a chance of off and on showers and thunderstorms,some may become strong to severe Tuesday evening through out the over night hours...Sure another no sleep day come Tuesday night and Wednesday..This brings me to this part now...Yesterday and last night's rain fall the total amount here at my office was 1.50" of rain, the heaviest band of rain set up through Northeastern Barron County ...Then through Rice Lake then down to Cameron..Those areas picked up any where from 2.00" to as much as 2.50" of rainfall...Over in Rusk County some areas picked up as much as 5.00"of rainfall.......Readings came off the radar total accumulated precipitation...My office reading came from all 3 rain gauges..Which did surprise me they were all close to my official rain gauge reading..Yes I do have a professional rain gauge for those who don't know..Now to part two ....Last night I went out and was trying to get lightning pictures,which I still have no idea what I have yet...I was roaming Central,Eastern Barron County...I did travel bloody HYW 8 did find some good areas,however by then the rain was to hard to deploy the camera,also the haze and fog got thick..So most of the lightning was the CCs type,however there were some CGS..Which one darn near took me out West of Cameron...After it hit I could not see anything for a good 5 mins and hear nothing for about 10 mins..Still seeing white dots off and on...Anyway I got about an 2 hrs of sleep this morning....Now time to go through the pictures and see what I got,if anything good I will post a few here and the rest to my website....Not counting on much as reasons stated above....
Side note...Can someone tell me why there has been so many deer out this year??I almost took out a few last night..They are acting goofy..The one darn near ran into the side of my truck....

Some pictures

The camera was calling my name this morning..So headed outside to see what I could shoot...Here is what I found...

Ever changing forecast...The joys of this job....

Forecast problems..Today showers and thunderstorms..Strong to severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon..Then a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday,and Tuesday mainly during the over night hrs...So this FCST discussion will revolve around the strong/severe thunderstorms chances...No long term FCST this go around....

SFC ANALYSIS...

Low pressure/trof over SE SD along with a warm front reaching through IA down into TN...Another low pressure/trof over NE MT with a CDFNT reaching South through Eastern MT back into Central WY...What does this all mean for the FA ? you ask..Lets dive right into and find out....

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Low pressure /trof is FCSTD to move into Southern MN this will help kick a warm FNT Northwards through out the day...Low pressure/trof only makes into Central MN by 1200 UTC..Warm FNT pushes into my Southwestern and Western sectors of the FA...System should be moving North/Northeast of the FA by mid morning on Monday...Back to today...As this system moves Northeast showers and thunderstorms will become more likely this morning..Radar showing this rather well this early morning...Here is where problems show up with the chances of severe thunderstorms....Limiting factors would be as follows...1 how fast can the morning mess clear the area to allow good SFC heating to take place..2 how fast will the atmosphere be able to under go destabilization later this afternoon...3 Convention temps.....Lets see if we can make sense of all of this....
First off the track...Lets look at this morning trash moving into the area....Thinking is showers and thunderstorms will be in two waves one coming in this morning..This should clear my Southern zones by early afternoon then clear my central areas by mid afternoon...If we get enough breaks in the clouds SFC heating should be strong enough to DSTBLZ the atmosphere....Again if showers and thunderstorms hold longer than FCSTD,along with more clouds AM not going to worry about strong to severe thunderstorms in my FA...Convection temps are FCSTD to be right around 80 see no reason why that won't be meant...850 - 500MB LAPSE RATES are FCSTD to be around 5.0 C/KM LIFTED INDEX FCSTD to be around 0 to -2 C PWS increase to around 1.67 inches later this afternoon....Most of the severe weather dynamics are there later this afternoon into the evening hrs...Big concern right now is will the atmosphere have the time to under go the destabilization procedure..Guess it's time to put my head out on the chopping block and say no to severe thunderstorms..Am thinking showers/non severe thunderstorms and clouds will hold strong across my FA...Highs today will be on either side of 80 with clouds and showers and thunderstorms moving into the area through the morning...If severe thunderstorms do form later today into the evening,main threat would be large hail and damaging straight line winds....
Ok now lets address tomorrow's severe thunderstorm threat...This is easy one....Atmosphere should remain capped through out the afternoon hrs...Thinking is this possible event will take place during the over night hrs...MCS are FCSTD to form over the Eastern Dakotas and march Eastwards into the FA..If this does happen we could be looking at a shot of severe thunderstorms Monday night...Main threat here would be damaging winds along with some hailers...Still cap may be to strong for things to fire...Monday looks to be a hot humid day across the FA highs well into the 80s close to 90......
Now lets look at Tuesday's severe thunderstorm threat....Am thinking the FA will be capped once again...SFC temps push back into the upper 80s to lower 90s,so another hot humid day on tap....Tuesday night does look like we will have a better shot at MCS forming...This will lead to a line of thunderstorms moving into the FA some of these storms could become severe during the over night hrs...Main threat would be damaging winds,along with large hail....
So this FCST cycle has the potential to become an active one...Will update FCST as needed through out the day,unless I decide to head out chasing,which attm looks highly unlikely....Though IA is looking good for severe thunderstorms......

Nice weekend for the most part!

Forecast through the weekend is cut and dry no big headaches facing forecasters....Come Sunday late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again...Temps will be on the warm side today dewpoints will be lower..Good news for those who don't care for the humid conditions we have had the past week...Enjoy as that won't last long....

SFC ANALYSIS....

CDFNT that pushed through the area last night is well to the South of the area...Weak area of high pressure has built in during the overnight hrs...We find our next trouble maker down over CO...More on that later....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Nice warm dry day and less humid conditions ..1010 MB high pressure if FCSTD to camp out over the upper Midwest today through tonight,and across much of WI on Sunday...Highs today should make it to around the middle 80s with a dry NW flow...Tonight lows fall into the nice cool middle 50s....Sunday hoist a few problems for the FA..First out of the gates...Temps shall be around the middle 80s..Winds are FCSTD to switch back to the SE...This will allow more humid air to return back to the FA..2nd onto the track is the chances of showers and thunderstorms...Models show a WRMFNT moving into Southern MN..NAM is some what slower in bring this FNT North...GFS and ECMWF seen to have the better handle on this...Still some timing issues are slowing up with them two models also...So will blend the two together....AM leading more towards a small chance of showers and thunderstorms for the FA later in the afternoon...After 4 pm...Would have to agree with the SPC in keeping severe thunderstorms in IA,MO,and IL for Sunday...As upper levels are FCSTED to be warm once again this will cause a rather strong CAP over the area...Better chance of showers and thunderstorms come Sunday night to the FA...Could see some good rainfall amounts...Which is much needed once again...

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

Warm and humid conditions still on the docket...Temps could soar from the middle to upper 80s..Confidence level for showers and storms are slim very slim in fact..Nevertheless with the WRMFNT pushing North will hold onto a slight chance of showers and storms...Am thinking morning hrs..Along with the overnight hrs of Monday....Which brings us to the lows for Monday..How does the warm humid middle 60s sound ? well that is what we are dealing out.....

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.....

WRMFNT pushed North of the FA this will allow for Sunny to PTLY CDLY skies...Temps are going to get hot...Am going to run from 87 to 92 degrees..It will also be humid dewpoints reach into the upper 60s,some models hinting at the lower 70s..Not sure if I can buy into that just yet...However it's a possibility...Wednesday and Thursday still look rather warm and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms...Thinking showers and thunderstorms will form over ND and push East/Southeast towards part of the FA..Can you say MCS...If this does indeed happen my Northern and Central FA has the best chance of showers and thunderbangers....This should have also been included in the Monday night's FCST...Temps in the middle 80s with lows in the lower to middle 60s seem the best way to run.....

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....(JUNE 26 - JULY 6)

Temps do cool off into the lower 80s by Friday as a CLDFNT pushes through this will also bring in drier dewpoints...Will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms going,though did entrain the idea about not having them...Long term models do show lower to middle 80s for Saturday with dewpoints going back into the 60s to lower 70s..As of right now Sunday looks to be cooler low 80s...Rest of this time frame temps look to hold in the 80s..By the 4th of July we could be facing temps close to the 90 degree mark once again holding into Sunday....For the most part this period looks to be dry...Come the 4th of July models are showing a system dropping South out of Canada...This could bring us a stormy 4th.....This remains to been seen,as this FCST cycle is so far out in time...Things can and normally change as we have seen.....

Side note will be heading out to Silver lake fishing tonight if anyone wants to come out feel free do so always nice to talk to people out there..Will be there around between 9:00 PM and 9:30 PM..Bring a fishing rod with you...If not I will be back out there Sunday night also same time! or call me to make sure I'm out there in case something comes up..Highly unlikely though..

An interesting day for this chaser..

Today I had a chance to talk to summer school kids about what I do as I'm out storm chasing...I was really shocked to hear the questions I heard...(in a good way)
So I was thinking about this when I was out at silver lake this evening...I have decided to post this on my website and to my forecasting blog......So here is the FAQ along with my answers...

1..What is a storm chaser?..A...A person who chases storms for what never reason he/she may have...So chase for research some do it to sell pictures/videos..Some do it for some type of a thrill...
2..How much training have you had?...A..I have many years of training in the SKYWARN program from the NWS...I have been to training classes/seminars...I had taken forecasting classes online,along with other weather online training...Every year I try to get to the SKYWARN classes and try to make it to some severe thunderstorm seminars...
3..Do storm chasers get paid for what they do?....A...Yes and no..Hears what I mean..Some get lucky enough to be working with news medias,freelance photographers..Or know as stingers...Some people will make enough money to recoup their expenses to pay for that storm chase session...Most will not see a dime..However most of us storm chasers get paid by known we are out there helping in getting the warnings to people down stream from the storm...With any luck it has helped save someone's life...If you think your going to become rich on storm chasing,you best better think again...Most of us do have good paying fulltime jobs we work...
4.. How do I become a storm chaser?.A..Well the best advise I can give you is take a SKYWARN class,and read everything you can find of severe thunderstorms,and weather forecasting.Also another best advise is to ride with a someone who has been chasing for a few years..He/she, if they are a good teacher will be able to teach you alot about storm structure,how to read the storm to decide whether it is growing or fading fast..Along with many other aspects of storm chasing along with how to be safe at all times..
5..How many hours go into a chase?...A..You mean how many days...I start to look at the computer weather models days out before an event...Just getting a general idea to were I may be heading to....By the second day I get a 100 mile radius target picked out,and will keep redefining it..The chase day I try to get a 50 mile radius nailed down..Then it's on the road...Yes many lonely hours go into this,along with many lonely miles ahead of you there and back..Once the storms pop the chase is on...The chase may last a few mins or a few hours...
6..Is storm chasing dangerous?...A...Yes it is I would be dumb to tell you it's not...Like I have stated many times through out my site..It won't be a tornado,straight line winds,or hail that gets me...It may be a car accident or some other road hazard...Lightning may very well be my demise..With lightning one can not forecast where it's going to strike next...Remember lightning can strike 15 miles from a thunderstorms...Rule of thumb if you can hear thunder,you are close enough to the storm to get hit..
7..Why do you chase storms?...A.. Well I just love to,nothing better than getting close up and personnel with a severe thunderstorm/tornado..No I'm not a thrill seeker,but there is some type of rush I get from it...I also enjoy seeing the beauty of the storm..Sometime it will just take your breath away....
8..How many tornadoes have you seen?..A.. I really can't tell you the count..I can tell you I have see 4 killer tornadoes...
9..Have you ever cried after seeing a town destroyed or someone's house destroyed?...A.. I won't lie..There are my times my eyes would,and will get full of tears.I'm human like everyone else...The shows you see on TV don't show the down side of storm chasing..They won't show,and who would want to see a bunch of chasers teary eyed after a tornado wipes a town off the map...Plus I don't think we would want to be filmed at that time either..
That was the questions I faced today...

Another big headache in the forecasting dept...

Forecast problems...Thunderstorm chances today...Along with a slight risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening....Once again this forecast discussion will focus mainly on that...First off the bat what went wrong with yesterday's FCST....One word CAP...CAP was to strong and held strong right up until about 7 or 8 ..What could have been a our best shot of severe thunderstorms in the area turned out to be one big bust...One the Cap was broken severe thunderstorms that fired over NE IA and SW WI put the damper on severe storms this far North...That all showed up rather well on radar,as severe storms tried to move into WI they would end up dieing off.....
Ok so what will the day hold in store for us..CDFNT is FCSTD to move into the and through the area this afternoon into the early evening hrs...Midlevel temps are cooler than yesterday so CAP is not as strong...Low level moisture and INSTBY still in place...One would think the chances of severe thunderstorms would be great again today,if not better than yesterday with CAP not being as strong,However there are a few problems with the setup for today...How fast will breaks in the CLD CVR happen if they even do...Will the CDFNT push through before primetime heating takes place,and the MCS is IA this morning.Those will be the limiting factors for severe thunderstorms..My confidence level is low for the chances of severe thunderstorms ...Nevertheless if thunderstorms do become severe this afternoon the main threat would be large hail along with damaging winds...Highs today will be a few degrees cooler with low 80s FCSTD...Tonight Off and on showers and thunderstorms will be possible before the midnight hr...The weekend looks to be warm with temps in the middle 80s both days..Lows lower to middle 60s....Am not going to talk about the new work week today will do that tomorrow morning....

***Severe thunderstorms later today and tonight***

This forecast will be short and sweet and right to the point...Will only be talking about the severe weather threat today...
Today looks like it will be a very busy day for Storm Chasers and s Storm Spotters through out the area...

Models are still some what out to lunch on the placement of thunderstorms activity..However all other dynamics are in place so can't deny that what so ever...Thunderstorms over Barron County,Chippewa,Clark,Rusk Counties are showing signs of weaken..Do think this trend will be the story the next hr or so.....Thinking is that these storms will remain below severe weather thresholds,Nevertheless some of the strong cells may produce small hail and gusty winds...If that was to happen likely area would be the cities of Barron,and Cameron ...Then more South Prairie Farm,Dallas,and Chetek....
Later today thunderstorms are forecasted to blow back up..As shortwaves move into and through the area...Some thunderstorms should become severe later today and into the over night hrs....Main threat would be large hail,damaging winds,and ISO tornadoes....If time allows I will do a more detailed analysis on this set up...Right now this chaser needs to get things figure out and a plan of action for later today and tonight....

Forecast looking great for the weekend!

Forecast headaches.There are many..Thunderstorms chances right through Friday...Some could be strong to severe Later this evening and once again Thursday to our South....Good news is Am pulling rain from this weekend's forecast...Very warm humid air for the weekend into next week..Could hit 90 degrees..See below for all the details...

No SFC ANALYSIS this morning...As we need to talk about a few things that may or may not happen....Today the FA should remain MSTLY CLDY as the area is in between to shortwaves..Temps today should top out in the middle to as warm as the upper 70s...As far as severe thunderstorm chances go..For the FA looks to null for today.Looks like most of the action is going to be setting up over parts of MN into ND,SD,NE,and parts of IA..Tonight gets to be a pain...If one or more thunderstorm clusters...(MCS) form over NE,and IA...This should put the break on severe thunderstorm chances across the FA..Now if these MCS moves Northeast over night we may be dealing with severe thunderstorms during the over night hrs...ATTM it is highly unlikely..As the Nocturnally LLJ sets up to our South once again...Got that feeling I will see some other WI storm chasers over in MN and or parts of IA,and SD....Tonight lows warm muggy low 60s seen to be the way to run....With showers and thunderstorms becoming likely...

Tomorrow still a tricky FCST...Still to many things can bust with this one...As of right it all depend on what happens over night with the MCS and how fast we can get some SFC heating going ...Am thinking best chance of severe thunderstorms should be found back in MN and my Southern FA and point South into IA and IL....Again this will all depend on the MCS that form South of here and how long they take to march through IA and IL....One thing does look like a good bet showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the morning and again in the late afternoon hrs into the over night hrs//CDFNT pushes into the area late Thur afternoon and marches through the FA THUR night....We will have to watch this closely to see what plays out...Models are having a very hard time with this pattern...Highs will be tricky also,Am going to run middle 70s once again..If we get some sun temps could push for the upper 70s to low 80s...Lows lower 60s still seen plausible...

Friday and Friday night ....
Will keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms alive for Friday as we will be close enough to the FNTL BNDRY,along with shortwave still riding along the BNDRY...Will end storms Friday night,however will hang onto a few ISO showers...Highs on Friday push into the upper 70s with lows right around 60.....

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Great news here I did pull showers and storms from the FCST as the system should be well to our South....Temps start the weekend in the low 80s and by Sunday we hit the warm muggy middle 80s...Lows in the lower 60s still seen to be the way to run....
Next chance of showers and thunderstorms come in Sunday night and last through Monday night...Temps on Monday middle 80s then by Tuesday upper 80s...Lows middle 60s.....90 degree mark is not out of the question....

Updated forecast

Forecast headaches..Today through tonight...Showers and thunderstorms,could see rainfall amounts ranging from 1/2"to as much as 1.00" when it's said and done..Then the chances of severe thunderstorms for the FA increase on Thursday and Friday..I know a this is kind of a fast forecast....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Trof pushes into and through the FA during this time frame...The FA has a good moisture inflow out and ahead of the trof..LIS forecasted to range from 0c to -2 c..So some INSTBY..Not the greatest,but should be enough to kick of a few thunderstorms from time to time..Main story will be the much needed rainfall once again..QPF of the models showing 1/2 to an 1.00 of rain through this period...Limiting factors for rainfall will be if widespread severe thunderstorms fire up over IA,and IL...If that is the case this would limit some of the moisture making it this far North,however still plenty of moisture still around for some good rainfall amounts....Temps today will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with the clouds and FCSTED showers and thunderstorms...Temps should be in the lower 70s but it will be muggy...Lows tonight fall back into the middle 50s,still muggy conditions....None of the thunderstorms are FCSTED to be severe....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
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Will still keep showers and thunderstorms around...More INSTBY is FCSTED so better chance of storms...Some of these thunderstorms could become strong and may reach the lower severe weather thresholds later in the afternoon/early evening...Limited factors would be if we can get some good SFC heating going,and if we get another complex of storms to our South...If thunderstorms do become strong.Looks like small hail and gusty winds...Highs on Wed should warm back into the lower 80s with the help of some breaks in the CLD cover...Lows Wed night are FCSTED to fall to around a warm and humid 60..

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Another stronger system moves towards the FA....This should bring us a better chance at severe thunderstorms...Thinking as of right now...Will be Thur late afternoon through the evening hrs...could last into the overnight hrs..CAPE increase to 1500 J/KG to 2000 J/KG LIS is FCSTED to range from -2 c to -4 C dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s..Should see enough SFC heating to destabilize the atmosphere in the afternoon hrs....SFC to 3KM Lapse rates do respond well to this increase up to around 7.0 C/KM..Will be enough CAP to hold down the wannabe thunderstorms...-1c to -3c...So see no reason why we won't see severe thunderstorms around the area....The main treat from severe thunderstorms...Large hail and damaging winds..An ISO tornado or two can't be ruled out as of right now....Highs of Thur still holding in the lower 80s...Lows Thur...Lower 60s...Friday things some what hard...Will depend if the system slows down...If it does we could be looking at another day of severe thunderstorms across parts of the FA...Thinking is the severe weather should be South and East of the area.....Temps still in the lower 80s...Lows right around 60...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Both GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement on the weekend...Does not look to be a total washout,nevertheless Sat does appear to be the wettest day with some showers around...Highs right around 80s..Saturday night lows right around 60...
Sunday should see more sun than FCSTED...So not looking like a bad weekend coming up...Sunday will undoubtedly be the best day...Highs reach into the lower 80s..Lows Sunday night right around that 60s degree mark...More showers and storms in the cards for Monday...

Silver lake

Decided not to head to KS last night though we were thinking hard about it..So decided to head out to silver lake again for some walleye action..I have been fishing this lake very hard,and been doing rather well right off the beach..Might be be back out there again tonight after all the skiers and swimmers are gone...Anyway I post some pictures back in April to show how low the lake was then...This morning headed back and got more pictures..The water levels keep dropping despite the rain we have seen..

Non Severe thunderstorm pictures

Was bord yesterday afternoon and evening..So just thought I would take a drive North just to see what I could find..Radar was showing some nice looking thunderstorms...Here's the only cell that I got pictures off,if I could have had some more clearing later I could have had some other pictures...But never happen..See post below....