***Forecast has changed some***

Forecast problems...Not many on hand,however the question is to add thunderstorms into this weekend's forecast...How warm will it be getting through next week... All this will be hashed out...One big headache did show up in the longer term FCST...

CURRENT CONDITIONS......

Temps at this 8 AM hr are in the lower to middle 50s ..Dewpoints holding close to that also,Winds are light...Some fog still showing up in the SFC OBS..Here at the office the fog as burnt off...So areas still seeing fog, don't worry it shall be burning off rather soon...

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This morning's weather charts depicted a cold front just now entering into NW MN..While a 1010 MB low pressure is just North of the MN tip...1017 MB high pressure sitting over Central WI extending back into Far Northern NE..How will all this play out ? lets find out shall we...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

High pressure is FCSTED to be shunted off to the South/Southeast of the area...Low pressure just North of the MN is FCSTED to march Eastwards..This will push the CLDFNT into Central MN and NW WI by later this afternoon....RUC model showing 500 to around 1000 J/KG cape forming over Central and Northern parts of my FA..Dewpoints to work up to around the 50 to 55 degree range...LIS increase from -2 to around -4 through out the day...This model paints out some showers/storms into my far Northern FA...Lets look at the NAMster model..So far NAM model seeing eye to eye on the Cape 500 to 1000 J/KG... Same holds true with the dewpoints...50 to 55..NAMSTER is more robust at painting showers and thunderstorms over the FA....LIS off this model show 0 to -2 Lets take a look fast look at the upper level soundings...850 -500 LAPSE RATES showing 6.9 C/KM.. PWS coming it around the 0.80" range. Convection temps right around the 72 degree mark...With CLD FNT pushing into the area and with all above said...I'm forced to add in a small chance of showers and thunderstorms. With thunderstorms already forming up stream in MN ..See no way of getting around it..Thunderstorms should remain below severe weather thresholds....Temps today will reach for the middle 70s..Winds won't be a problem today,should remain rather light...Nevertheless winds could be stronger in and around thunderstorms....Will run with PTLY CLDY skies for today...Tonight will keep a small chance of showers and thunderstorms going as FNTL BNDRY is still pushing through the area..Will still run lows right around the 50 degree mark...
Sunday small chance of showers and storms needed as FNT washes out...Now depending on where this BNDRY meets it demise..More showers and storms should form along it.INSTBY still hanging on in areas South of this BNDRY along with moisture..SFC heating should lead to the reformation of showers and thunderstorms..Looks like Central and Southern parts of the FA ...None of these thunderstorms are FCSTED to be severe.Sunday will run with highs 76 to 80 under PTLY CLDY skies..Lows on your Sunday night shall fall back into the lower 50s....

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT....

High pressure shall be the controlling weather entity...Monday is looking like the best day of the work week...MSTLY sunny skies and highs around 80......Lows Monday night middle 50s seem the way to run....

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Will hold on to yesterday's forecast through this time frame...Warm and humid conditions shall rule, showers and storms possible each and every day....Still looking like strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday's time frame..Highs shall be in the lower 80s..Friday we push into the middle 80s...Lows upper 50s to lower 60s .....So to sum this period up...Warm, humid, along with a rather active period...

LONGER TERM (JUNE 20 THROUGH JUNE 29)

Well this got interesting from yesterday's FCST....Long range GFS has cooled temps off some..My thinking is to run with the warmer FCST for now as this just showed up on the newest computer runs...AM just going to lean back on the fence to see if this resolves it's self or if I will need to change the FCSTED temps downwards.....As time is on my side for now.....Also looks like it may be drier for the Rice Lake's Aqua Fest...Once again I'm just going to hold off before making in big changes attm...As this run threw in some twists and turns...So my thinking is the best way to run with this FCST cycle is to keep pervious thinking alive...See yesterday's FCST for that....I will wait to Monday before buying into this cooler,and drier solution and the weekend of the 20th.