Friday, June 5, 2009

Wet weekend on tap for the FA

Side note before we jump into the forecast...

Sunday I will not issuing any forecasts..That is if I head for IA to storm chase...That is the plan as of right now..This could change...I will not be going into Northeast IA or Southwestern WI...No way no how !!!...That is where I have busted two time this year already,thanks to the trees and hills and the river.....Anyway I may be in need of a nowcaster or two...Someone I can call to get the latest radar info..Some areas of IA I have no internet at all,Cell phone should work....If interested in being a nowcaster on Sunday email...I like to have at least two if not more,This way I have a better chance at getting hold of someone......If anyone would like to ride with that would great also,as I'm going to be myself...Plans are to head down and head right back...Should be back sometime early Monday morning...Would be nice to have a back up driver!


What a difference a days makes...Looks like there will be a better chance showers for Saturday into Saturday night...Then thunderstorm chances for Sunday into Monday evening..Some of these storm could become strong to severe...Details below...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this 8 Am hour are in the middle to upper 50s a few 60s are showing up in the SFC OBS...Dewpoints are holding in the middle 40s..50 coming in at EAU...Winds are West to Southwest around 5 to 8 MPH....Satellite showing a nice band of clouds across far Northwester/Northern WI...

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning's weather charts show a cold front draped across Central MN into far Northwestern WI...CDNFT reaches up into Canada to a 1002 MB low pressure area...Our next system is getting it's act together over the Southwestern/Western States...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

CDNFT is forecasted to push through the FA today...May see a few clouds as the cold front pushes through...Showers should be held to my far Northern forecast areas...Temps today shall be in the middle 60s to around 70..Tonight Temps race back into the lower 40s may see some upper 30s up North...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

Unlike yesterday's forecast...AM forced to add showers sooner than previous thought..Did hint at this yesterday....
Cold front stall out over IA,IL this will allow for next system moves along the frontal boundary..This will bring shower into the area Saturday..QPF is showing 1/4 to 1/2 inch of much needed rain on Saturday,still not enough to break this drought we are locked under...Temps will be held down with clouds and showers...Middle 50s to upper 50s....Cold day setting up...Saturday night looks to wet,and raw with temps dropping into the lower 40s...Best advise if you are going to be at the area actives dress warm and have a rain coat with you..

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.....

Things could become interesting around the area..Another area of low pressure pushed towards the area,also this will drag the frontal boundary more North into Northern IA,IL...This will allow moisture to keep over running the front,thus keeping rain chances alive...LIS are forecasted to be around 0 to -2 2m SFC dewpoints area forecasted to increase to the middle 50s,lower 60s in my Southern FA..Limiting factors for strong to severe thunderstorms will be the cloud cover along with left over showers from Saturday night...If SFC heating can commence in the afternoon we may see some strong to severe storms...My thinking is the main show is going to be down in IA,Southern MN,Southwest WI,and far Northwestern IL....With said this forecaster/stormchaser is heading for IA on Sunday...Will know that for sure tomorrow!....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Looks wet and cold,we still need the rain so don't think to many will complain about it..Temps on the other is a whole new story...Temps will remain well below norms through this forecast cycle...Middle 60s for highs with lows in the middle 40s.....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

We dry out with a warming trend kicking into play...Temps will ramp back up into the upper 60s and lower 70s with lows still holding onto the middle 40s....

LONGER TERM (FRIDAY JUNE 12 THROUGH SUNDAY JUNE 21)

So will it warm up like I have forecasted yesterday or did this also change....Lets find out shall we....
First off the gates lets look at the temp dept to make sure they are still working on warming up....Well looks like the temps forecast will remain from yesterday's forecast... Long range models still holding their own...Temps are forecasted to hit the 70s and 80s through this time frame...Great news for those who love warm temps...Do you like humid weather ? if so we have it..Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the 50s to 60s through this forecast run..Last but surely not least...Lets talk about rain chances...Still looks like an active period coming up...With any luck we can break out of this drought that we have been in for sometime now....Off and on bouts of showers and thunderstorms are forecasted through the time frame....Again this forecast cycle is so far out in time,things can and will be changing...