Forecast

Side note before I get the forecast...I know I haven't been doing any forecasting over the last few days...Been busy with other things...The life of a storm chaser..


Forecast concerns temps through the rest of the work week and into the 4 th of July weekend...Another problem will be the cloud cover along with chances of showers today and tonight..Then thunderstorms for Friday night through Saturday night.Big warm up in the longer term FCST...So something for everyone..No snow though!..More details below.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS...

Temps at this 5 AM hr starting in the lower to middle 50s across my Northern and Central FA...Meantime my Southern area temps in the middle to upper 50s...Dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s are the rule this morning..Winds this morning range from 7 to 10 MPH under CLDY Skies.....Some lgt rain showing up on radar up around the Hayward area....

SFC ANALYSIS...

Upper level low spinning it wheels over the GRTLKS area..Also a trof moving through WI attm...Another one ready to move into the FA....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Another early fall day on tap once again..Would think temps will be about the same as yesterday...So 5 to 10 degrees below normal again...Am going to run with lower 60s across the FA...May be a degree or two warmer Southern areas,may not get out of the 50s in my Northern areas...Will be cooler along the shores of Lake Superior.Lows tonight upper 40s to lower 50s See no reason to change them..Low pressure over the GRTLKS area will keep the North/Northwest flowing into the area keep the cold air alive for today and tonight...Models do show this pesky low moving E/NE and slowly filling in the next day or 2...Looks like another system coming South around said low should kick of some showers today and holding into the over night hours,just like yesterday....Winds will still be a problem today and tonight..10 to 20 MPH with gust 25 to 30 MPH will be possible...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

We start WED still rather cold for this time of year...Highs mainly in the 60s lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s....Still should be MSTLY CLDY...THUR and FRI setting up to be 2 rather nice days under MSTLY sunny skies With more sunshine FCSTD will see temps respond..Heading for the upper 70s Lows hold in the middle to upper 50s..

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT....

Here is were we run into a few problems...GFS and ECMWF are not seeing eye to eye on the next system.However they both seems to agree that there will be rather large area of a neg trof over Canada..Also they do agree on another upper level low forming over the GRTLKS area once again.However temps wont be a cold as they have been..Here is where the problems show up....Lets hash this out...First out of the gates we will address the GFS model....GFS keep most of the moisture South of the FA also keep the Southern jet South into the middle part of the Country...So if this does play out we should see drier air..Meaning no showers or storms....Model of choice which as been for most of this year has been ECMWF...This model has been holding onto it's thinking over the day few days....ECWMF has been showing the Northern jet working along with shortwaves riding along it giving us a chance at showers and thunderstorms through this time frame...Still thinking is it will not be a widespread event...So most areas wont see anything..Nevertheless will run with the chances of showers and storms over this period for now...Temps will be close to norms for the upcoming long weekend....

LONGER TERM.... (JULY 5 THROUGH JULY 16)

Sunday the 5 through Monday the 6...Should be dry with temps still in the upper 70s lows in the middle 50s....
Models are hinting at big changes coming in the weather pattern....Temps by Thur the 9 reach for the upper 80s maybe lower 90s..Temps are FCSTD to hold in the 80s with days into the 90s through out the rest of this time frame..Dewpoints will be on the increase, so it will be getting more humid as we work through this long term FCST...Looks like an active period coming up with showers and thunderstorms....