Forecast stands for the most part...

Forecast problems...Today the chance of showers and thunderstorms,Temps a little tricky...Then showers and thunderstorms for the period Tuesday through Friday,along with the upcoming weekend....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

Temps this Sun morning are in the lower to middle 50s..Dewpoint temps lower 50s most areas..Winds are light..Great morning to be sitting on a local lake before the swimmers and water skiers take over this afternoon...Looking at the satellite image we see PTLY CDLY skies..So all in all a great morning..

SFC ANALYSIS.....

This early morning weather chart showing the FNTL BNDRY still hanging on to NW WI.....1017 MB high pressure is centered over Southern Canada..Meanwhile across the Southern Plains FNTL BNDRY/Warm FNT reaching Eastwards from a 1000 MB low pressure..Warm FNT runs through Central OK into Northern AR,MS then into the NE 1/3 of AL..Out West we find a 1008 MB low pressure system over Eastern WA...Looking to our Eastern States..Trof of low pressure over the Northeastern States..Meantime a 1012 MB low pressure sits just of the Coast of NC....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

FNTL BNDRY that pushed into NW WI yesterday late afternoon/evening still hanging tight...Will leave forecast stand from yesterday...As this BNDRY is meeting it's demise...Still enough moisture and INSTBY around the FA...SFC heating this late morning and afternoon will lead to the destabilization of the atmosphere...MUCAPES FCSTED to run around 800 to 1100 J/KG..
LIS FCSTED to range from -1 to -2 with some pockets down to -4 Dewpoints still hanging in the 50s through out the day..Showers and thunderstorms should reform later this afternoon..Still holding onto the thinking none of the thunderstorms will be severe..There may be one or two strong storms over my Central and Northern FA..Some storms may produce small hail and gusty winds...Again thinking is thunderstorms will remain below severe weather thresholds...Highs today shall range from the upper 70s to lower 80s....Tonight did hold onto a small chance of showers...I still may pull them later today...For now will let them ride...Lows tonight fall to around the 50 degree mark...

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Still looking like the best day of the work week....Weak high pressure builds into the area,setting the stage for MSTLY sunny skies and warm temps...Highs on Mon should hit the lower 80s...Mon night..high pressure slips away allowing for the next system to move into the area...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again...Lows for Mon night middle 50s...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

This period features many shortwaves moving into the area from the Southwest...Warmer and more humid conditions will be taking over the FA....Showers and thunderstorms will dot this period..Don't think everyday will be a wash out,however showers and storms should be around in the later afternoon and early morning hours with breaks in the late morning and during the over night hrs...Timing is going to main the issue on these shortwaves...This shows up rather well for the Tuesday and Wednesday's system...The NAMSTER wants to push this system into and then right out of the area before you know it...Meantime...GFS/ECWMF along with GEM keeps this system on a slower track this has been the trend with these models over the day few days...See no reason to break the stride...Tuesday showers and thunderstorms will raise their ugly heads by afternoon...Depending on if we can get some good SFC heating going and if this system moves in during primetime heating of the day..We could every well be dealing with strong to severe thunderstorms...To many questions on that as of right now..So I won't get carried away..Just something that will be needed to watch over the next day...Showers and thunderstorms will be in the FCST through Friday...Friday is looking very interesting as far as a chaser's point of view...As of now one would think IA and then into SW WI.South central WI could be dealing with a bout of severe thunderstorms..We shall wait and see...Highs through this FCST cycle upper 70s to lower 80s..I did trim out the middle 80s due to more clouds FCSTED...May have to bump them back up..Lows will be warm and muggy..upper 50s to lower 60s....So to sum this time frame up..If you like warm and muggy air along with showers and thunderstorms this period is just for you..So enjoy!..If you hate warm and muggy conditions and showers and storms...Well I don't know what to tell you...

LONGER TERM... (JUNE 20 THROUGH JUNE 30)

Well I'm glad I didn't jump on the band wagon with yesterday GFS run..As you remember GFS was saying temps would cool down..Was the only run I seen...Hence the reason I didn't buy into it....Today GFS is right back to it's thinking..Make this forecasters stress level drop some...Another big weekend coming up..This weekend it's the Rice Lake's Aqua Fest,along with other events happening through out the FA...So lets get right to the heart of the matter,as many folks will be reading this...Ok I got good news then I got bad news,as if you didn't see that one coming...Lets see...Lets run with the bad news first...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend..Some of these storms Sat afternoon into the evening hrs could be strong to severe,if all the dynamics come together..If that be the case this forecaster will have his hand full while watching the skies when everyone else is having fun...The way it always works for me...Nevertheless someone has to do it,might as well be me...
Showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing Sunday morning...May see a break midday before more showers and storms reform in the late afternoon hrs....Ok good news is temps will be rather warm..Low 80s with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s..
Things dry out for Mon and Tue before the next system move into the are for Wed...Systems appears to stall out ..Meantime another system moving out of ND is FCSTED to bring yet another wet Sat to the area...So to sum this period up warm and muggy conditions with off and on showers and thunderstorm on the docket.Note this time frame is so far out in time things can change,and change fast...Will update this as needed.....So looks like summer is here..With any luck we won't have to talk about 50s anymore until fall!!