Forecast problems...Really not many...Warm air will be the big story as everyone will be talking about it since we really haven't see to much of it this Spring....Thunderstorm chances for tonight,however Am not thrilled about it this early morning...Then more storms for Saturday afternoon into the evening..Thinking is this will be in my Northern FA..More details on that later....
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
Temps have really warmed up since I started this FSCT...When I started temps here at the office were in the middle 40s...Now temps have warmed to lower to middle 50s across much of the FA...Cooler up North....Dewpoints lower to upper 40s are the rule this morning...Winds are light...Satellite image showing mainly clear skies across the FA...Some clouds noted in my Southern Zones...Radar showing showers out over South Central and Southern MN,and Southwestern MN,as these showers push towards the East they have been drying up..This trend has been like this over the last hr or so....
SFC ANALYSIS....
1016 high pressure sitting over Lake Superior..Shortwave over NW MN and one over SW MN/NW IA...Old FNTL BDRY still over the Southern Plains reaching up to Southern PA....Areas of low pressure systems found along it....Main story will be along and South of this feature with more severe thunderstorms FCSTD in areas that really don't need any more severe weather....
TODAY...
WAA has kicked in despite the pesky NW flow we are still in...Temps today will be in the ballpark of 70 to 75 through out the FA...Cooler up around Lake Superior...Shortwave to our SW should remain to our South...Could see a few showers and thunderstorms moving into and through my far Southern FA...Meanwhile Shortwave up in NW MN appears to remain well North of the area...Skies for the most part will be PTLY CLDY.....Wind today will remain rather light...Good day to leave work early if one can.....
TONIGHT...
Small chance of showers and thunderstorms needed though Am not thrilled about it ATTM...Shortwave will be moving close enough to warrant the chances...I do buy into the MSTLY CDLY scenario...As RH fields show this rather well...Thinking is best chance of showers and storms will be found in my Northern and Southern forecast areas...Lows tonight upper 40s to 50....
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....
Saturday is a little tricky..NAM wants to bring in showers and thunderstorms for Sat/Sat night...While GFS and ECMWF keeps precip Just to my Far Northern FA more so over Northern MN.So will blend GFS with ECMWF,with some features form NAM.....Cold FNT is FCSTD to move South from Canada during the day Sat by late Sat night/early Sun morning front should be reaching from NE MN back towards Central ND..Showers and thunderstorms are FSCTD along and ahead of said front...Thinking is showers and storms will be possible over my Northern FA..While the of the FA basks under MSTLY sunny Skies...Temps on Sat middle 70s..Lows around 49 to 52...Sunday will keep the showers and thunderstorms alive in the far Northern areas in the morning hrs....Highs on Sun should be closing in on the upper 70s...Though if we see a more NE winds may have to lower that a tad....Lows...around 49 to 52...Monday MSTLY sunny skies seem to be the rule...Highs push dangerously close to the 80 degree mark...Lows drop back to the middle 50s....
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....
Warm and humid shall be the rule through this time frame..Temps in the middle 70s to lower 80s...While lows only fall into the upper 50s to around 60 or so....
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as systems move into the area....May be dealing with some strong to severe thunderstorms come about Wednesday and again on Thursday....Storm chasers and storm spotters may be happy about this if this does pan out...As action up here as been rather dull for sometime...I know I'm ready for some local chases once again..Am sick of driving to IA,along with other areas...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....
Weather pattern remains rather active with off and on showers and thunderstorms through the weekend..QPF off of some of the long range models showing rainfall amounts from .25" on Sat then Sat night into Sun .25" to .50" So the Rice Lake's Aqua Fest may be just that.Just like Cameron's Camerama days last weekend Rain and more rain..If the long range models keep holding onto this...Which has been the trend over the last few runs...Temps through this time frame middle 70s to middle 80s seem the way to run..
LONGER TERM... (MONDAY JUNE 22 THROUGH SUNDAY JUNE 28)
System clear the area setting the stage for a dry Mon..1004 MB low move to around the Duluth area on Tuesday before filling in,However another low pressure forms over IA the combinations of both these features will bring the chances of showers and thunderstorms right back into the FCST...Tue through Tue night,maybe lasting into early Wed morning..Next chance of rain come in around the Fri time zone..So to sum up the precip dept...Periods of shower and thunderstorms shall dot this time frame...
Lets look at the temps dept...Temps will remain warm with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s...May see a shot a 90 degree mark here and there....
So to sum up this whole FSCT cycle...Warm and humid conditions with showers and thunderstorms...All in all it's looking like an awesome FSCT,unless you like the cold temps we have had all this spring...
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