Updated forecast

Forecast headaches..Today through tonight...Showers and thunderstorms,could see rainfall amounts ranging from 1/2"to as much as 1.00" when it's said and done..Then the chances of severe thunderstorms for the FA increase on Thursday and Friday..I know a this is kind of a fast forecast....

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

Trof pushes into and through the FA during this time frame...The FA has a good moisture inflow out and ahead of the trof..LIS forecasted to range from 0c to -2 c..So some INSTBY..Not the greatest,but should be enough to kick of a few thunderstorms from time to time..Main story will be the much needed rainfall once again..QPF of the models showing 1/2 to an 1.00 of rain through this period...Limiting factors for rainfall will be if widespread severe thunderstorms fire up over IA,and IL...If that is the case this would limit some of the moisture making it this far North,however still plenty of moisture still around for some good rainfall amounts....Temps today will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with the clouds and FCSTED showers and thunderstorms...Temps should be in the lower 70s but it will be muggy...Lows tonight fall back into the middle 50s,still muggy conditions....None of the thunderstorms are FCSTED to be severe....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
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Will still keep showers and thunderstorms around...More INSTBY is FCSTED so better chance of storms...Some of these thunderstorms could become strong and may reach the lower severe weather thresholds later in the afternoon/early evening...Limited factors would be if we can get some good SFC heating going,and if we get another complex of storms to our South...If thunderstorms do become strong.Looks like small hail and gusty winds...Highs on Wed should warm back into the lower 80s with the help of some breaks in the CLD cover...Lows Wed night are FCSTED to fall to around a warm and humid 60..

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

Another stronger system moves towards the FA....This should bring us a better chance at severe thunderstorms...Thinking as of right now...Will be Thur late afternoon through the evening hrs...could last into the overnight hrs..CAPE increase to 1500 J/KG to 2000 J/KG LIS is FCSTED to range from -2 c to -4 C dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s..Should see enough SFC heating to destabilize the atmosphere in the afternoon hrs....SFC to 3KM Lapse rates do respond well to this increase up to around 7.0 C/KM..Will be enough CAP to hold down the wannabe thunderstorms...-1c to -3c...So see no reason why we won't see severe thunderstorms around the area....The main treat from severe thunderstorms...Large hail and damaging winds..An ISO tornado or two can't be ruled out as of right now....Highs of Thur still holding in the lower 80s...Lows Thur...Lower 60s...Friday things some what hard...Will depend if the system slows down...If it does we could be looking at another day of severe thunderstorms across parts of the FA...Thinking is the severe weather should be South and East of the area.....Temps still in the lower 80s...Lows right around 60...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Both GFS and ECMWF models are in better agreement on the weekend...Does not look to be a total washout,nevertheless Sat does appear to be the wettest day with some showers around...Highs right around 80s..Saturday night lows right around 60...
Sunday should see more sun than FCSTED...So not looking like a bad weekend coming up...Sunday will undoubtedly be the best day...Highs reach into the lower 80s..Lows Sunday night right around that 60s degree mark...More showers and storms in the cards for Monday...