Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Forecasting 101..Fronts

Many have asked me how I find fronts whether they are warm,cold,and stationary by looking at the computer models...Well there are a few tricks of the trade that all forecasters use..Here is a few things I look for on short term,middle and long term models..First I look for sharp temperature gradients,remember the front will be along the warm side of the sharpest temp gradient...Also another indicator would be a strong dewpoint gradient,this one is a little more tricky...However the front will be on the high side of this gradient...Look at the isodrosotherms,or what forecasters call lines of constant dewpoint temps....We also look at the 3 hr pressure tendencies or 3 hr pressure changes.This is one of the most important things is short term forecasting..That would another new post...Another thing us forecasters look for would be a sharp wind direction change.....Ok let me talk about the 4 types of fronts...First the cold front...A cold front as a rule will bring colder air into one's FA,however sometimes it will only drop the dewpoints,and shift the wind to the West/Northwest,depending on if the front is moving in from that direction..Cold front as a rule will have strong lifting along and just ahead of it.This cold produce thunderstorms some could be strong to severe..That is if the other severe weather dynamics are in place...Second the warm front...Warm fronts force air up and over the colder air.This would produce more widespread rain showers,though if enough forcing gets going thunderstorms could blow up along the front it's self...This would be the case is we have a strong cap South of the front...Third is the stationary front....Not much to say about this type of front,as the name it's self says it all..A frontal boundary that is not moving..Still lift along this frontal boundary would lead to showers and thunderstorms..Strong to severe on the warm side...Last but not least the occlude front..We don't hear to much about these fronts,however what it is..When a cold front overtakes the warm front..When this happens the warm air is pushed above the SFC...This could lead to showers and thunderstorms..However severe storms would be unlikely with it as warmer air being forced above the SFC,this may warm the upper levels along with little cap to hold down the weaker showers and thunderstorms...
The above is a fast way of finding fronts...Or one can cheat and watch TWC or looks at other maps on the net...But then you are not really forecasting,just using someone Else's analysis...