Forecast problems...Thunderstorm chances today...Along with a slight risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening....Once again this forecast discussion will focus mainly on that...First off the bat what went wrong with yesterday's FCST....One word CAP...CAP was to strong and held strong right up until about 7 or 8 ..What could have been a our best shot of severe thunderstorms in the area turned out to be one big bust...One the Cap was broken severe thunderstorms that fired over NE IA and SW WI put the damper on severe storms this far North...That all showed up rather well on radar,as severe storms tried to move into WI they would end up dieing off.....
Ok so what will the day hold in store for us..CDFNT is FCSTD to move into the and through the area this afternoon into the early evening hrs...Midlevel temps are cooler than yesterday so CAP is not as strong...Low level moisture and INSTBY still in place...One would think the chances of severe thunderstorms would be great again today,if not better than yesterday with CAP not being as strong,However there are a few problems with the setup for today...How fast will breaks in the CLD CVR happen if they even do...Will the CDFNT push through before primetime heating takes place,and the MCS is IA this morning.Those will be the limiting factors for severe thunderstorms..My confidence level is low for the chances of severe thunderstorms ...Nevertheless if thunderstorms do become severe this afternoon the main threat would be large hail along with damaging winds...Highs today will be a few degrees cooler with low 80s FCSTD...Tonight Off and on showers and thunderstorms will be possible before the midnight hr...The weekend looks to be warm with temps in the middle 80s both days..Lows lower to middle 60s....Am not going to talk about the new work week today will do that tomorrow morning....
Pop Pop Heaven
4 years ago
