July 30th storm pictures

What a day much needed rain soaked the area...Then in the evening another round of thunderstorms moved into the are brought another round of very heavy rain...

Tonight's rainbow

Nice way to end the day,after a light rain shower this is what I was treated to..

Reflections

Now that I got some puddles around I had to get some of these pictures,I call them reflections....I know kinda dump,but you will have that from time to time...Like always click on the pictures for full size...

Rainfall

Another round on much needed rainfall today..Off and on showers along with a few rumbles of thunder from time to time,has brought parts of Northern Barron County another million dollar rainfall....These pictures are the total from 7 AM this morning till now....So looks like we will be adding this before the showers come to an end around or shortly after sunset..

Last night's sunset pictures

Volcano Sarycheve is still giving us one great show durning the sunset hrs,also the sunrise hrs...

Much needed rainfall

Much needed rainfall hit the area this early morning hrs...The main area was through out much of Northern Barron County...This is where the rain was needed the most..I picked up 1.5 inches..As you can see Radar shows this rather well....

Storm structure pictures

Here are some storm sturcture pictures of the non severe thunderstorms form yesterday...Also some hail cores...I will have the rest on my website within the next two hours...

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHASE/HAIL INVESTIGATION

Yesterday NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM chase was a fun on...Lots of hailers lots of cool storm structure..There was no severe thunderstorms warnings issued for Polk,Barron,ST.Croix,Dunn Counties.So no severe thunderstorms effected the area.Back to the hailers.The hail was mainly nickel size...Which is 3/4" lots of smaller hail....Thanks to a report of 1.00 hail in Polk County...Wasted some of my time trying to find any 1.00 inch stone..However one on the companies I'm contracted with wanted me to investigate it so I did....My findings was there was no 1.00 hail stones..I was just happy I was there before the hail had a chance to melt.Along with the storms moving slow.The ground was white through out that area,like other areas off and on through the afternoon and early evening hrs....I was able to stay out of all the hail shafts yesterday,which a good thing....Many hours spent in the truck,many miles on the road....Will add pictures of different storm structures soon...

Great afternoon chasing today

I have 1000s of pictures to go through...Put on well over 200 miles covered many Counties today...More details and pictures maybe tonight,or tomorrow...Time to eat!

14 year old killed by lightning..So damn sad!

This is so sad....14 year old girl struck and killed be lightning in Stillwater MN..My heart goes out to her family and friends....I'm not going to get into the dos and don'ts when a thunderstorm is close...I will get into this though....Lightning is the most feared by us storm chasers...Here is a few reasons why...Think about this...Us storm chaser go into a flat area and try to get onto a hill some place where we can see the storm structure..So this only puts us at risk of being hit by lightning....Reason number 2...We can not forecast lightning..We never know where the next blot is going to strike...Number 3...Some of us storm chaser love to take pictures and vids of lighting..So we head to an area of the storm close to the most intense area of lightning,Sure we may still be miles away,however if you can hear thunder you can be struck down....I will say this these year thunderstorms have been far and few between up here,however I almost met my deisms four times so far....So many ask why I risk it all to get pictures?
Well I love thunderstorms,Lightning is one hard thing to get...So the way I am I like to go after the hardest things which being are the lightning shots...I risk it all to bring all my viewers the pictures....I never know when I'm out storm chasing if I will be going back home or not...When out in the field I pray a lot...It's not if but when lightning takes me out..When it does I sure hope people don't say..."he should have known better" I want people to look at it this way..He was doing something he loved dearly with his heart...
I wish I could have been the one who got hit by the that blot of lightning...I lived most of my life...The girl had so much more to life left...I hope her family did not see her...I have seen a few people killed by lightning...That all I'm going to say....Once again my heart and prayers go out to her family and friends.....

Last night's Nothern Light pictures

The night turned out to be a very long night,but I loved every second of it..Been awhile since we saw the Northern lights dance in the sky...What was an added bonus was the thunderstorms moving well North of the area..So not only did I get pictures of the Northern lights,also got some lightning back lite thunderheads....Click on pictures for full size..

Tonight's lightning pictures

A rather good light show tonight...Here a some pictures,the rest I will add to my website tomorrow....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 7 @ 6:52 PM

The line of thunderstorms over Burnett County are weaken...The Northern part of this line in Douglas County still holdong it's own....Meanwhile a severe thunderstorm over Chippewa County still tracking North/Northeast...Is also showing signs of weaken some over the last few radar scans...Still radar is showing 1.00 inch hail with this storm...We are also keeping our eye on the thunderstorms in MN as they are tracking East/Southeast....

Severe thunderstorm warning

THE NWS HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY..SEE THEIR SITE FOR THE INFO...

Side note to Short term FCST 6 @6:18 PM

Thunderstorm over Burnett County just now become strong..Radar is showing some small hail possible within this line of thunderstorms...Also this line reaches into Douglas County...Where one of our weather spotters reported pea size hail....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 6 @ 6:05 PM

Just as soon as I thought I could get out of the weather office bang more thunderstorms...This time we are watching thunderstorms up in Burnett County...Storm are moving East.....Also see some back buliding towards the SW...Also see more storms over in MN... Morrison,Benton Counties...We will see what takes place with these thunderstorm....Other storms in my FA cover parts of Chippewa,Rusk,Dunn,St.Croix,Pepin,Pierce,Eau Clair,and Douglas....

No more updates needed

For now I see no reason why to issue any short term forecasts,as the thunderstorms weaken when they get to WI....Just mod to sometime heavy rain with thunderstorms that have been in my SW FA....The WI blocking pattern holds once again....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 5 @ 5:00PM

Thunderstorms are weaken as they get closer to WI,Still keeping an eye on the storms over in MN though they are weaken as I type this,Will see if they go through a recycle period or if the weaken trend will hold...Also watching an area of thunderstorm moving into Western Douglas County..These storms have been getting stronger.....Also a note the NWS has dropped the severe thunderstorm warnings on the the cell to the North.Northeast of the Twin Cities....The NWS does have a severe thunderstorm warning for SW Washington and Central Dakota Counties.We are watching thunderstorm form along the gust front line in Rasey County All said above storms moving east/Southeast....Another area of interest is over Crow Wing County MN storms up there are becoming stronger and Moving towards the East Souteast.... NOTE..Severe thunderstorm warning now for Rasey County...

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 4 @4:22 PM

Thunderstorms move South out of St.Croix County into Northern Pierce County..Storms are not strong...Our weather spotters in those areas are reporting mod rain ATTM....Still the main area of concern is over in MN..This line of thunderstorms is moving rather fast toward my Western forecast area....Will be watching radar trends to see in thunderstorms can hold their own,as they move towards the FA....A few showers have formed over parts of North Central Barron County..Also one lone thunderstorm up over Central Washburn County....Chippewa County we see a few showers/thunderstorms....The NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Southern Washington County MN....This storm is moving Northeast...So we will watch that storm to see if is can hold it's own as it pushes into my Western FA....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 3 @3:51

The thunderstorms over parts of St.Croix County still weaken...Our weather spotters down in that area are reporting mod to sometimes heavy rain now...Radar still showing these thunderstorms slowly weaken.Though the storms in SE Washington County have been recycling..Only to become weaker over St.Croix County...Still the main area of interests is over in MN...Isanti,Anoka,Wright Counties...Severe thunderstorms are marching East/Southeast through these Counties...Storms did go through their recycle mode...Storms North of said area have weaken to light showers...However so building towards the Northeast from Isanti County has been noted....

SHORT TERM FORECAST NUMBER 2 @

Thunderstorms over Western St.Croix County is slowly weaken as of 3:20 PM the last few radar scans show this rather well...We will keep watching it in case it does decide to become strong..So far our weather spotters in that area are only reporting very heavy rain..This area of thunderstorms are moving Southeast..Our main area of concern is over in MN we are still watching the line of showers and thunderstorms,some which are strong to severe..Some weaken has been noted,however we have see this before,so waiting to see if the storms will recycle or keep on the weaken trend..This line of storms is moving East/Southeast....

Short term Forecast Number 1

INSBTY really got going this afternoon with more breaks in the CLD cover...Dewpoints have increased to the middle 60s...This has set the stage for Strong to severe thunderstorms...Still will be ISO to Scattered,So not a widespread event....The main threat from thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hrs will be large hail,as very cold air is in place in the upper levels.....Right now we are watching an area of thunderstorms ready to move into St.Croix County...This area is moving mainly East/Southeast...Looks to be some building towards the North in SW Polk County...We are also watching another line of strong to severe thunderstorms over in MN Counties effected over there are...Aikin,Mille Lacs,Kanabc,Benton,SE Stearns,Sherburne..This line is moving East/Southeast...This line of storms we are watching closely....

Here is your forecast

Forecast concerns today...Showers and thunderstorms...With a outside chance of an ISO severe storm....Temps still remaining cold through this week,into the early next week...So the below normal temps continue....Off and on showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the work week into the weekend.....Don't think it will be enough to really help out the drought conditions....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

SFC OBS showing temps in the lower to middle 60s across the FA....Dewpoint temps in the middle 50s..Winds out of the South/Southeast around 5 to 8 MPH...Radar showing a rather large area of showers and ISO thunderstorms at the 8 am hr....So if you are in an area that has not seen rain this morning...Hang on it's on it's way....



SFC ANALYSIS...

This morning's weather charts still appear to fallish...A CLD FNT slices through MN this morning...Meantime a 1005 MB low pressure system over Northern OK/Southern KS....1020 MB high pressure is found over Western Canada reaching down into the Central Rockies.......

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT....

CLD FNT is forecasted to slowly work towards the FA...This has already produce some light rain showers over night....This will keep showers and some thunderstorms ongoing through out the day...INSTBY is rather low today however combine INSTBY along with CAPE values around 800 to 1000 J/KG...Not really much in the way of wind shear....However very cold air sitting upstairs....May see a few hailers around later this afternoon...Mainly in my Southern FA...This will mainly depend on if we can get some SFC heating going..CLD FNT washes out right over head becomes more throfish in nature..Will keep some showers and thunderstorms going for tonight. QPF is FCSTD to be around 0.25 to as much as 0.50 in thunderstorms......Highs today middle 70s South...Lower 70s Central and Northern areas.....Winds S/SE around 5 to 8 MPH...Lows tonight Lower 50s North..Middle 50s Central and Southern areas...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....

Trofs/Shortwaves shall be impacting the FA through this time frame....This will give us a chance of showers and thunderstorms about every day...Small chances though...Better chances come in about Friday night into Saturday......Temps through this period....Upper 70s to around 80 Southern areas...Central areas should see temps in the middle to upper 70s...My Northern areas should see temps in the middle 70s ....Lows mainly in the Low to middle 50s North...Middle to upper 50s Central...Upper 50s to around 60 in my Southern areas...This time frame by all means won't be a total washout....

LONG TERM...(JULY 26 THROUGH AUG 6)....

Temps do start this long term below norms...No big surprise there....However temps do become warmer... Around Aug 1st...Should be in the middle to upper 80s...Not warm enough for you? No problem by Aug 4th we should see temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s...Should hold right through Aug 5/6 time frame.....As far as showers and thunderstorms go.....Overall looks to be a dry period still...Sure there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms through out this time frame.....To sum it up this time frame...Temps slowly warm up to above norms...The dry pattern holds strong to the FCST area...See Drought Conditions in my last forecast from last Friday......

No Forecast today

Sorry there will be a forecast today...Yes I do need some time off also....Will give an over all view of this week...Temps do warm up some,however still will below normal...We should see some much needed rain off and on through out the week..More on that in tomorrow's forecast.....

Tonight's sunset

Volcanic ash has made tonight's sunset a really great one..With all the clouds over the last few nights this was a great treat...Like always click on the picture to see full size..

This morning's fog

This morning's fog pictures...I could not pass up the chance to get pictures this morning...The cows looked to be lost in the fog....Temps @ 5:44 41.6° would someone put the heat on please!!!

Wabbit

This morning after I got done with the forecast I headed out side with camera in hand..This is what I found..Wish I would have tripoded the shots...

Forecast/drought conditions

Forecast concerns......Clouds,light rain/sprinkles/temps/Showers and thunderstorms Mon night through Tue night....Still will feel like a fall day today...Temps through next week will be closer to normal...Drought FCST below the long term FSCT...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.......

Temps across the FA this morning middle to upper 50s..What is interesting is temps at Superior is 57° Which should be colder than the other stations..Eau is also reporting 57°...Skies are cloudy through the whole FA...Winds from the NW either side of MPH.....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Still dealing with the pesky upper level low pressure over the GRTLKS areas....Meanwhile large area of 1024 MB high pressure sitting over far Northwestern ND reaching down in the AR area....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Today the pesky upper level will still in control of the FA...This should provide the FA another cloudy day..Still can't rule out some ISO light rain showers/sprinkles...Highs shall still be on the cold side,not as cold as yesterday....Should see middle to upper 60s from North to the South ...Winds FCSTD to still be from the N/NW around 5 to 15 MPH..Tonight the upper level should have moved far enough east that we should start to see CLDS scatter out...Am going to run with PTLY CLDY skies tonight...Will go with temps from the middle to upper 40s from the North to the South...Winds are FCSTD to become light to calm...Will have to watch for the possibility of areas of fog in the overnight through early morning hrs..Moving onto Sunday...We shall see this big yellow object in the sky...Don't be alarmed it will be the sun...You read that right the sun does come out of hiding and this will help bring the temp into the middle 70s.....Lows Sunday night lower 50s should work out a okay... Winds will slowly be turning to W/SW this will also help draw warmer air back into the FA....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Monday still features sunshine on Monday with CLDS slowly increasing by evening...Highs Mon should reach for upper 70s across the FA..May see an 80 or two in my Central and Southern areas....Monday night and Tuesday looks to give us another shot of much needed rainfall...FNTL BNDRY moves into the FA from the Dakotas and through the area late Tue night...Models have been back and forth with the speed of this system,Still going to run with my thinking as of yesterday as models seem to have inverted back to once again..Showers and thunderstorms shall be more common by Tue late morning lasting through most of Tue evening..Models do paint out 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain...Farmers and everyone else can only hope for that to happen....Highs on Tue shall be a tad cooler with CLDS/showers and thunderstorms around...Middle 70s seem to be the way to run....Lows Tue night middle to upper 60s....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

To start this period...PTLY CLDY skies seem to be a good bet to place...So just gone ahead and did it....Highs Wed/Thur lower 80s....Low either side of 60...Next shot of showers and thunderstorms on the bar for Friday...Highs in the upper 70s FSCTD do to CLDS and Showers and thunderstorms around....Lows fall to either side of 60 once again....

LONG TERM.(SAT JULY 25 THROUGH MON AUGUST 3).......

First off lets check on the temp dept as this seems to be were our problems have been through most of the summer.
To start this period out temps still being a pain...upper 70s through Mon the 27...By the 28 temps do warm into the middle 80s..Temps get into the upper 80s to around 90 by the 29 and 30...However they do cool back off to the upper 70s to lower 80s by the end of this time frame....Not sure if I can buy into this warm FCST just yet,as I have seen this on the long range models all summer long....Ok onto the precip dept.....Does look like a active period coming up...So maybe we can slowly crawl out of this long term drought......So if long range FCST models are right look for a warmer and humid period with showers and thunderstorms like every other day or so.....

DROUGHT CONDITIONS.....

For the most part dry weather has ruled the area...This has led to the drought conditions to expand even more...Seems like our area is the hardest to be effected...We have received less than 70% of our normal precipitation over the last year...Even with the above avg snowfall we had...The snow had less moisture....The spring we really never saw the normal rain as we should have...This summer has been the same way...Systems seem to split parts head North and South of the area...The NIDIS has us my FA under a severe drought as of July 14..The FCST for drought conditions...Drought is FCSTD to be ongoing through my FA with some improvement...This FCST covers the period from July 16 through October....Their not saying we won't see heavy rainfall through this time frame...The FCST is a overall view of the conditions.....

Record cold highs

Eau Claire has set a new cold high temp today...They had 65° the old record was 68°set back in 1939....Here at the office 6 miles Northwest of Rice Lake we never got out of the 50s..High here was 58.4°...Still not sure if that was a record or not..Will wait to see what the NWS has to say...So when will it warm up you ask.....Never it's WI...Ok for real...Starting Sunday...Still though temps will slowly get closer to norms for this time of year through out next week....Forecast coming up in the morning....

It's fall...Cold forecast below...

Forecast problems below normal temps through Saturday....Some moderation for Sunday...Temps then FSCTD to hold in the upper 70s to around 80 through next week....Rain chances for today,tonight....Then another shot at thunderstorms for Tuesday into early Wednesday.....Still thinking we could break or tie record cold high temps today..Welcome to fall.....

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps are in the lower to middle 50s this morning,Wind this morning still on the breezy side 10 to 15 MPH with gust close to 20 MPH on some of the SFC OBS...Skies are CLDY through out the FA...Light rain also showing up in some of the reports...

SFC ANALYSIS......

This morning weather charts still shows a rather large upper level low pressure North of Lake Huron...FNTL BNDRY reaches from the low through Eastern MI through IN down to AR then through Central OK....Large area of 1025 MB high pressure through Canada into the Northern Plains...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....

Upper level low East of our FA will keep trekking slowly Eastwards...However a reinforcing shot of cold air dropping South today..This should give us a better chance at some light showers..Also this will ensure that we will need to keep the sweatshirts,and light jackets handy...Highs today will feel more like October then July..Yes it's fall...Temps today are you ready to see this....Here we go....Middle to upper 50s......From the NWS...Record cold highs for today...Eau Claire is 68° that was set back in 1939....So record cold highs are in damager of being broken today....So summer is still on vacation still.....Yes for the most part we are being rob of a summer this year...Did do some research...What is interesting.. As a rule with colder weather patterns we would have more rainfall...As rule when we in drought conditions temps are warmer than normal...This summer we have had a very persist low over Hudson Bay drawing down cold and dry air....So far this summer is running well below normal in the temps and precip depts....Will be interesting to see how cold this summer will end up at....Tonight will keep a small chance of light rain going....Temps will fall into the middle 40s to upper 40s...Still thinking if we do get any amount of breaks in the CLDS for a few hrs Temps could fall into the 30s some areas...Highly unlikely...Though it will not surprise me if it does happen....

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Saturday still be a rather cool day with highs FCSTD to be in the middle to upper 60s,however it will feel warn with more sunshine....Lows Saturday night tumble back into the Middle to upper 40s...Sunday and Monday temps creep back into the middle to upper 70s with lows in the middle 50s on Sunday...Close to 60 Monday night....

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....

This start this time frame we have another shot of showers and thunderstorms..Highs in the upper 70s lows in the upper 50s...May see a shot at 80 by Thur under PTLY CLDY skies....

NOTE 1...

No long term forecast today...

NOTE 2.....

Am going to be checking into more of this record cold highs...

Now your forecast for Western/Northwestern/ WI

Forecast headaches...Besides the forecast went a stray over night with clearing skies that was not expected...Main problem is whether to hold onto the chances of rain today through Friday....The other problem is when is summer going to get off it extending vacation? Lets try to hash all of this out....

CURRENT CONDITIONS.....

First off looking at the satellite image we see skies are MSTLY clear through out much of my FA....Clouds have been drifting South into my Far Northern areas...Temps in the lower to middle 50s at this hour..Temps last night here at the office dropped into the upper 40s....47.1°...Winds have a range of 5 to 13 MPH across the FA...Dewpoints in the middle to upper 40s...

SFC ANALYSIS....

This morning we see the CLD FNT that has pushed through the FA the other night is not located from SE MI down into the NW 1/3 of TX...1023 MB high pressure centered over far NE MT....We also find a 998 MB low pressure on the SW side of Hudson Bay..This will be the main system of concern today and tonight and Fri...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY......

Low pressure by Hudson Bay will keep a few weak short waves/ trofs moving through the area through this period....Clouds are FCSTD to be on the increase this morning...Can't rule out some light rain showers with very cold air in the upper levels and with SFC heating taking place,won't take to much to stir things up....Highs today will feel like a fall day...middle 60s to upper 60s for the most part...Maybe a 70 or two over my Southern FA...May not hit 60 in my far Northern areas....Tonight another trof starts to work South out of Canada...This should keep off and on rain showers going...Though I'm not really to thrilled about that....Lows tonight fall back into the 40s....Winds for today and tonight should have no trouble gusting up to around the 20 MPH out of the NW...Friday and Friday night will be down right cold for this time of year...Will keep light rain showers going still really not thrilled about,However models are in agreement so I can't disregard that....Good thing is winds will drop off some,however temps will have a hard time reaching the lower to middle 60s as the NW flow will not give up....Friday night lows fall into the lower to middle 40s..Still thinking if we get some clearing going...Temps in my far Northern Central areas along with my Northern FA could drop into the 30s,Highly unlikely ATTM Am banking on clouds to keep temps in check....

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.....

Looks to be a dry weekend on tap...Which I think most people would not mind getting more rain...As the drought conditions still holding strong over the area...Temps will begin to moderate as we fly through the weekend...Starting out in the in the lower to middle 70s on Sat...Lows in the middle 40s...Sunday Am going to warm temps a few degrees as we get into a return flow this should allow for WAA to slowly kick back in..So will up temps closer to 80 for Sunday will up lows Sunday night into the lower 50s...Monday Am going to up temps here also going for highs in the upper 70s North...Central areas should be a few degrees into the 80s...Southern areas may very will hit the middle 80s...I will run around 83 down there for now...Lows for Monday night should be right around the 60° mark....

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....

This time frame we will see our next shot of showers and thunderstorms...Temps right around 80 for highs while lows should be in the middle to upper 50s....


LONG TERM...(JULY 23 THROUGH AUG 1).......

Main question here will summer return to the FA...Lets find out....To start this time frame will should still be close to norms,still some what below norms though...H8 temps to increase to around 24 C by the 30-31 time frame and hold for the first day of Aug....But how many time have we seen this in the long term FCST..So will not buy into this until we get closer to this time frame..Seems to me the best way to run with the trend that we have been in most of this spring and summer.As we remain under the NW flow through out much of this period..As far as showers and thunderstorms go.....Should see a few showers and thunderstorm dot this time frame...Still really see no drought busting rains for the FA....

NOTE....

CLD field has really got going over the over parts of my forecasts area now....

Your forecast

Forecast concerns will be the below normal temps through the rest of the week...It will be feeling like fall....Temps do moderate some this weekend.Still some chances of showers for tomorrow and Friday...Nothing to write home about...Winds are going to be the main story for today through tomorrow...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps through out my whole FA still holding onto the middle 60s dewpoints still in the upper 50s some lower 60s still being reported Winds are out of the West from 10 to 20 MPH...Most station reporting MSTLY CLDY skies at this 9 Am hr..Satellite confirms this...A few breaks here and there...So don't be shocked to see some sun this morning....

SFC ANALYSIS....

Weather charts show the CLD FNT that blasted through area last night now over Central WI...Meantime we find a very strong 997 MB low pressure just North of the MN border...Large ridge of 1021 MB high pressure over the Northern Plain reaching into Canada....

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

For the most part this FCST period is cut and dry....Winds are going to be a problem today...Pressure gradients really increasing later this morning into the afternoon...Should see wind gusts close to 30 MPH,with higher gust in my wind prone areas...CAA has not yet made it into the FA,never fear it will later this morning into the afternoon hrs...Dewpoint temps shall be falling rather fast...You will know when the CAA kicks in full ernest.....Still going to run with MSTLY CLDY to PTLY CLDY skies for today...Highs today should reach the lower 70s maybe some middle 70s in my Southern FA....Lows tonight lower 50s most areas.....Want more cold air ? Ready or not here it comes....Another CLD FNT is FCSTD to drop South out of Canada...This should help keep MSTLY CLDY skies going...May also kick of some light rain showers....One thing that is a giving this CLD FNT will bring down more cold air for the FA....Highs on Thur shall be middle to upper 60s...Lows fall into the upper 40s....Friday still will keep a chance of light showers around,though I may end up pulling them in later updates.....Time to dig out the sweatshirts and or light jackets...Highs on Fri a very cold..Lower to middle 60s...May not get out of the 50s up North....Lows Fri night middle to upper 40s...I sure would not be shocked to see some upper 30s in my Northern area,possibly into my Central areas..If clouds clear out.....So did I miss summer and we are now in fall ?.....Am going to have to check out some cold max highs..I think we may be close at tying or setting them...Can't say for sure yet until I check that out.....

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....

Temps do warm back up to near norms,as we get on the return flow....High push back for the middle 70s to close to 80 by Monday.Lows will also be on the upward trend...Lower to middle 50s...Upper 50s to lower 60s by Mon night...No rain is FCSTD through this time frame......Next chance of showers and thunderstorms come in play Monday night Tuesday time period...

NOTE...
No long term forecast will be issued today...Once things settle back down in the office we will resume the long term forecast...

Recap of last night's thunderstorms..

Recap of last night's thunderstorms...
The forecast did work out rather well...As thunderstorms moved into Eastern MN the storms did weaken below strong and severe limits as INSTBY in Eastern MN and Western.Northwestern WI along with my Southern FA...This was a on going through most of the evening...Cold front was able to kick of a line a strong to severe thunderstorms...At one point storms over Pine County MN did look like they were weaken...So we headed out to get some lightning pictures...Storms did get stronger and Burnett and then Washburn Counties went under a severe thunderstorm warning...So Tammy and I head North to see what was going on...Storms really weaken when they got into Central Washburn County...We then head back for home...Radar was showing mod to heavy rain in Polk County and St.Croix County...The thunderstorms were not that strong,just mod to heavy rain...Once the rain ended we followed them trying to get what little CGS pictures...Got more sheet lightning ...See post below for that....Anyway I did see a on the LSR 4 miles SW of Danburry a storm spotter reported several large trees blown down at 9:48 PM...However most of the strong and severe thunderstorm did stay over in MN like was FCSTD..Not a widespread event for my WI FA....
One thing that was good was most of the FA did get much needed rainfall...Here at the office we picked up 0.50"...0.25 to 0.50 was the rule for most on my Central and Northern areas...Over in MN some areas picked up as much as 6" of rain...So this will for sure help the drought conditions out....Forecast forthcoming..See above...

Lightning chase log

Last night turned out to be a longer night that I wanted it to be..That is ok...Tammy wanted to come over watch me do short term forecasting...We did get out a few times to see what the lightning was doing,however the cells were not producing much...Watch thunderstorms along the cold front move closer to the...So we headed right back out after my last post...Was not a bad show,however is was mostly sheet lightning..Did get some CGS...Just not that may...Did get pictures of the sheet lighting while trying to get the CGS lightning shots...Not the best pictures but did throw them up...Recap of last night,and the forecast all coming up....

Forecast worked out really well

All in all the FCST work out as thought..However thunderstorms in my Northern FA were warned ..Overall everything worked out just fine and dandy.Some areas did get the much needed rainfall..
Also would like to thank the 250 plus viewers that hit my blog from 4 pm to 10 pm hours...Thanks for all the emails! Yes I will never over hype a severe weather threat,unless I really do think it will happen and be widespread...Tonight showed that well,was not a widespread weather threat like some where screaming..
As far as the other blog that was mentioned..All I can say take it up him.I have no comment about what he says or posts..
I do agree the posting of the radar might have been a to try to prove me wrong,as I never seen that posted before. Still no biggie like I stated in the one of my last updates "will have to watch Burnett County"...Well Tammy and I were out trying to get lightning pictures.And were heading back out again once the storms move to the East.So I was not around to see what was going on ATM...However the forecast worked out great..But I do thank Ray for telling me about it...like you all have said you in your emails you trust me when it comes to forecasting the weather along with short term updates...Don't get used to the short term forecast though..If this would have been a widespread severe event I would have been out chasing...Thanks again everyone...Time to head for some lightning shots we hope!

Dirky doing short term forecasting

Yes I took some pictures of Dirky doing his short term forecasting.He knows I'm putting this pictures on his blog.hehehe

Update short term forecast Number 8 @ 8:45 PM

Cold Front marching Eastwards across MN.A line of storng to severe thunderstorms are forming along said front...Still thinking is as the storms move into less INSBTY they will begin to weaken.As with the other storms that have moved into Eastern MN/Western WI...Will keep an eye on these storms as they move closer to Burnett County..As the Northern end of this line seems to be hold it own rather good...Though some weaken is starting to take place as the storms move closer to Pine County MN..Eleswheres more showers and thunderstorms are moving through parts of Barron,Polk,Rusk,and St.Croix Counties...These storms are not strong,however any thunderstorms could produce mod to brief periods of rain..

Forecast for the rest of tonight

Cold front now reaches from Northern MN through Central MN..Thunderstorms are blowing up along the cold front From Morrison through Central Stearns South into Kandiyohi Counties of MN...Other showers and thunderstorms are marching through Eastern MN in Western nad Northern WI....Storms will keep weaken as they move towards Eastern MN and Western/Nortwestern WI through out the evening hours..Still some areas should pick up some muched needed rainfall Central and Southern areas of my FA won't see that much...Cold front should be pushing through my Western part of the FA around 9:30 to 10:00 PM and clear my Eastern areas by midnight...Winds will be shifting toward the West/Northwest and will be rather gusty..Could see winds up to 30 MPH tonight and once again tomorrow....No severe thunderstorms are FCSTD...Strong thunderstorms arew also falling by the wayside rather fast now,as we lost what little SFC heating we had,and INSTBY is very little....So for my FA ones who do see thunderstorms,they will remain below severe weather thresholds...Strong storms should not be a problem either...Just some mod to maybe periods of heavy rain with some of the thunderstorms...

Update short term forecast number 7@ 7:10PM

Thunderstorms keep moving towards WI,however they are weaking as they run into less ISNTBY...Latest computer models showing around 500 J/KG..So thunderstorms should keep weaking as they get closer and enter WI....So this may be the last update needed for awhile....No strong to severe thunderstorms are FCSTD for my Central FA...Barron,Polk,Rusk,St.Croix,Dunn,Chippewa Counties...This would also include my Southern FA...Meantime in my Northern FA there may be an ISO strong thunderstorm...However unlikely given the INSTBY is low....Some of my Northern FA should see much needed rainfall,while my Central and Southern areas may not see much in the way of rainfall over the next few hours...We will be watching the cold front as it pushes East..It's well defined on Radar,showers and thunderstorms are blowing up along it...However still feel by time it reaches Eastern MN/Western WI the thunderstorms will be weaken like we have see all evening....

Update..Short term Forecast number 6 @ 7:00 PM

Showers are pishing through Barron County....Don't be surprised to hear a clap or two of thunder..Just happen here at the the office...Watching more showers and thunderstorms in Burnett,Washburn Counties and points North...These storms are showing signs of slowly weaken,still hold there own...But nothing strong or severe....Am watching the thunderstorms in MN pushing into Pine County..These storms are also showing signs of weaken over the last few radar scans...So the trend keeps going...I don't see any hail with the storms like radar was showing...Still may be some hail and gusty winds...But again we had gusty winds all day...These storms are not as strong as they were...Nevertheless they may become strong once again.

Update...Short term forecast..Number 5 @ 6:40 pm

Showers and thunderstorms keep marching through BURNETT County..They have been weaking as they move into less INSBTY..The showers and ISO thunderstorm over POLK Coutny is knocking on BARRON County's door step...These have also been weaken,never really got going without the INSBTY....Keeping an eye on thunderstorms over in MN...KANABIC and Northern ISANTI counties..This area of stronger storms may push into parts of West Central BURNETT County....Will update again I'm sure.....Still don't see anything screaming severe thunderstorms yet....

Updated short term forecast number 4 @ 6:30

Radar showing showers a few thunderstorms moving into Burnett County..A few showers and thunderstorms are also forming over parts of Polk County....None of these thunderstorms are FCSTD to become severe....Burnett County the storms could become strong....Showers and thunderstorms moving East/Northeast...More showers and thunderstorms over MN are FCSTD to move into the areas,however these thunderstorms should remain below severe weather thresholds...Still may see and ISO strong or severe thunderstorm over my Northern FA...If it happens the storms should remain on the level thresholds for severe weather....Stay tune for more updates as needed...

Short term forecast number 3 @5:45 PM

Thunderstorms over in MN that have been severe,as they work their way towards Eastern MN they have been weaken..Same trend as before...Radar still showing two main areas of thunderstorms...One over Central and Northern/Northeastern MN this area is moving to the East,however cells keep moving North Northeast...The second area of thunderstorms are found over SW MN this area is moving East Southeast...Nothing in between the two area...If the first batch of storms over Central MN keep on their track they will miss my Central FA may effect my Northern FA...Still thinking attm is severe thunderstorm threat over my FA is null...May see an ISO strong to lower threshold severe storm in my Northern FA...I sure won't bet the farm on it though....So looks like we may every well be missed once again..Just some light rain and a few run of the mill thunderstorms...May have to update this once again if we start to see back building taken place from the storms in Central MN...

Short term forecast number 2

Where skies have cleared clouds are moving back in rather fast...Should keep seeing this trend through out the rest of the FA.....Looking at radar looks like the line of thunderstorms out in MN have been doing the split job once again, just as we feared....With any luck the line can reform....The whole area of showers and thunderstorms is pushing Eastwards...Cells them self's have been moving North/Northeast...In SW MN where the line did split those storms are moving now Southeast...Could this be a replay to the last event we went through....Starting to look that way....Hope for some much needed rain....If we don't get it tonight,it may be about 7 days before our next shot comes in....

Updated forecast@ 3:45 PM/short term forecast

Updated forecast

still see now reason to make changes to forecast so will still leave it ride.....Still Am thinking the main show is going to be over MN and IA..Where the SPC does have a severe thunderstorm watch for them areas...

Short term forecast...

Looking at the VIS satellite,there are some breaks in the cloud cover..However this cam to little to late...I don't feel this is going to get the INSTBLY up to were it needs to be for severe thunderstorms...Models also some what agree on that....Still strong upper level dynamics are in place,but INSTBLY is lacking....Looking at the radar this shows up rather well as strong to severe thunderstorms in Western MN push East they have been weaken,See this more as they push towards WI...Up in my Northwest part of the FA...As storm have been moving towards Burnnett County from MN they have be weaken to do the lack of INSTBLY to keep them strong...Watching this all afternoon...Another reason not to change the forecast....Any place that has breaks in the cloud cover shall fill back in rather fast....Thinking is by time the Cold front reaches the area most of the upper level dynamics will be null..Will depend on the amount of SFC heating that can get going...Side note would need about 3 hrs of good SFC heating for storms to make the trek across MN into my FA to remain severe...Will keep updating as needed...

Hard at work

I'm hard at work this morning...Okay it's more mental work than anything else..Nevertheless it's work..I see I best better shave and re shave my head again..LOL

Updated forecast @ 9:40 AM

Forecast still on track so will leave well enough alone....I see the SPC is thinking like I have been....They are seeing a less of a severe weather threat over my FA...Main severe threat is going to found over Southern MN and IA.....No other updates are planed as of now,unless things change big time,highly unlikely,however will watch it.....

Virtual tour

Here is a virtual tour of the weather center..As you can see I use mainly 3 computers..One on the left is for radar only unless there is nothing going on then I will use it for another computer model.Radar programs I use..GRLEVEL 2 and GRANALYST,and STORM LAB..One is the center I use for satellite data only and to write up the forecasts you see on this blog...The 3rd computer on the right side I use for computer model/profile data only...Which I run NAM,GFS,RUC,ECWMF.GEM..along with other computer models....Not pictured is my laptop..I do set it up in the office if I'm nowcasting...Mainly the laptop is used for when I'm out storm chasing....As you can see I use a lot of info to bring you the best forecast I can...It takes about 2 to 4 hours to really analysis the data,and to come up with a forecast...Click on the pictures to see full size....Forecast in post below.....