Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Updated forecast/still nothing cut and dry still!

12z model runs still show really no news good or bad...Still having problems with convection feed back Am thinking...So will wait for another run to see what may or may not take place....Model are showing two areas of MCS tonight..One forms over Western MN and pushes E/NE towards NW WI...Meantime the other MCS forms over South central MN and rides Southeast along the LLJ..So if any thing this just caused more problems in the FCST...Stress level went up two folds from this morning....So will run with previous FCST,also wait to see what the next run has to dish up...Then will blend models if needed...All in all if the 12z runs are close to being right there won't be any widespread severe thunderstorms over the area for the following reasons, clouds will keep SFC heating down through out much of the day,still not thrilled about deep layer moisture working back into the Central and Northern FA,also if we do get some sun early enough the cap looks like it may win out as H7 temps are going to be rather warm..until tomorrow night,by then we will have lost the SFC heating LLJ is FCSTD to be weaker,cold front should be right over head or off just to the East, so tomorrow night should see the run of the mill thunderstorms,far Southern forecast may be a new story though...Am still not going to put my head on the chopping block just yet..FCST models don't agree either on many things...So looks like my day is not over yet....Will keep watching this possible severe weather threat either unfold or watch it fall by the wayside...So far the second of the two seems to be winning out just as it looked this morning.AM still having a hard time buying into the SPC,and the NWS thinking...Though the SPC is slowly coming around with the thinking of tonight's MCS becoming a problem for tomorrow's chances of severe thunderstorms..This is one of them FCST either is going to blow up or it's not..If it blows the main threat from severe thunderstorms would be large hail,damaging winds...Can't rule out a few tornadoes with the wind shear setting up over head....Next FCST update set for around the 5:30 to 6:30 time frame...Another 12 hr shift here at the weather office....