The area forecast...Looking good...

Yes I decided to work today,as I have nothing else better to do....So I will be watching the skies as most have fun today...

Forecast problems....Really none..Though after last evening nothing would surprise me....As some ISO showers and storms did form along a BNDRY in my Northern FA along with my Northern Central areas..That BNDRY has settle to the South so FCST will be on track...Middle term (Monday) as thought yesterday..AM going to pull the mention of showers and storms...Long term still appears to be on track....Though the first part is tricky as it has started to run a muck...

CURRENT CONDITIONS....

Temps this morning have a nice wide range to them...middle to upper 40s along my far Northern areas,around Lake Superior...Meanwhile temps elsewhere's range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s...Winds this morning are calm..Kind of a humid morning with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s....40s around the Lake Superior....Skies are cloudy at this 4 AM HR....

SFC/UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS....

1019 MB high pressure is centered over Northern WI this morning,also a 1021 high pressure over far Northern ND...BNDRY that caused the ISO showers and storms now South of the area...Still kicking up some showers/ISO storms over my far Southern FA this early morning..

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY....

Today features a weak area of high pressure over the area..This is going to set the stage for a very nice day...CLDS will be moving out of the area through out the morning HRS..Will keep them longer in my Southern areas..With a chance of showers and storms this morning down there..By mid afternoon rain/CLDS should be clearing this area.....Highs today will shoot back up into the upper 70s,again would not be surprised if some readings hit 80...Lows tonight drop into the lower to middle 50s...Sunday still looks rather nice highs reach for the 80s most areas lows fall back into the lower to middle 50s once again...Winds through this period shall range from calm to around 10 MPH.....

FIREWORKS FORECAST..(9:45 PM through 10:45 PM).....

Decided to warm temps a few degrees for tonight...Am going to break this down again...Northern,Central,and Southern areas...
Lets start up North...Temps this evening should range from 55 to 60 skies PTLY CLDY winds out of the N/NW around < than 8 MPH...Central areas...Temps ranging from 60 to 65 under PTLY CLDY skies...Winds < than 5 MPH...Last but not least my Southern areas....Temps ranging from 64 to 68 here we shall see PTLY CLDY skies...Winds < than 5 MPH...Looks a great night to view the fireworks displays that will be lightning up the evening skies...Lots of ooooooos and ahhhhhs also FCSTD this evening...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....

Monday become cut and dry..I did pull rain chance out of the FCST and ran with MSTLY sunny skies..Temps FCSTD to be in the lower 80s may see some middle 80s in my Southern areas....Monday night Clear to PTLY CLDY skies seem to be the rule...Lows in the middle 50s....Tuesday almost a C/C of Monday...MSTLY sunny skies...Highs a degree or two warmer...lower to middle 80s....Tuesday night...Will keep FSCT dry ATTM....Will run with MSTLY CLDY skies...We will have to watch how FCSTD MCS plays out Tue night..I may very well have to add a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tue night...If MCS do form this may be a problem for Wed FCST....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....

Wed may be a problem day...Reasons are as follows...1 if MCS do form Tue night this may keep showers and storms going through out the morning HRS...2 the placement of the MCS.....My take on this as of right now...If MCS form this area should remain over Western to Central areas of MN....However we will see a great deals of CLDS in the morning...These should be clearing out around the noon time HR.....If this all does play out like AM thinking....We are setting stage to a rough late afternoon into the over night HRS...Showers and thunderstorms are FCSTD to rear their ugly heads...Some of these thunderbangers could become strong to severe......ATTM time I'm not to thrilled about it....Highs on Wed middle 80s for the most part...Lows in the lower to middle 60s....Thursday..A cold front is FCSTD to move into the area in the afternoon/early evening HRS....This would be in prime time heating...However Models are showing a stronger CAP than I would really like to see..Nevertheless if thunderstorms can break the CAP..We could have a better chance at seeing strong to severe thunderstorms...This will all depend on what takes place on Wed night...As we may have another MCS form and may very well move through the area...If they do and work over the atmosphere, the chances of severe thunderstorms will drop like a rock....Also will depend on if we can get enough breaks in the CLD cover to get some good SFC heating going...So a lot will depend on what takes place Wed night into Thur morning...Once again the chances are better that they are for Wed....Highs on Thur reach into the middle to upper 80s...If more sunshine peaks through some 90s surely not out of the realm of possibility....Fri...Left over showers and thunderstorms a look like a good bet..Mainly before noon as the cold FNT still close enough to the area....Am going to trim highs on Fri back into the lower 80s...

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY JULY 11 THROUGH MONDAY JULY 20).......

Models not really seeing eye to eye on Sat the 11..AM going to go ahead and do some blending here and there.Thinking on my part is showers/storms will be clearing the area by mid morning....Sunday the 12 still a problem as some of the long range models would like to keep showers ongoing for Sun...I'm not buying into this just yet...Tue the 14 we have another system dropping Southeast...This should bring in more chances of showers and thunderstorms..Thinking ATTM is the best chances will be found over my far Northern areas....Here models are painting out almost 0.25 QPF..Next chance of showers and thunderstorms move back into the FA for Fri the 17..Chance right now look rather small..Though my Southern areas do have the best chance as this system stays more to our West/Southwest....We will have to watch Sun the 19...As a better chance of showers and thunderstorms move back into the area from the Southwest....Central and Northern areas have the best shot at this...Let see what's going on in the temps dept....So far looks like I won't have to get on this dept as temps look to be summer time temps...Warm and humid conditions look to be the rule..May even get down right hot and muggy by the 16 through 19 time frame...Am not going to jump the gun,however if this pans out we could be dealing with temps well into the 90s....Most of this FCST cycle temps ranging from the 83 to 87 or so,Lows in the lower to middle 60s...May not drop out of the 70s by the 16 through 19 time frame.....Side note....This FCST cycle is so far out in time...By all means it's not even close to be written in stone...

Have a safe and fun 4th of July everyone...For those who are working today like myself...Just think of the double time!