Forecast problems...None...Inherited forecast right on track,so will leave the short and middle term forecast stand as it is...One little problem may be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on July 4th...However Am going to leave FCST dry for now...See below for info...Long term did so some adjusting..
CURRENT CONDITIONS...
Temps at this 6 AM hr starting off in the lower to middle 50s,Winds are calm or light..Dewpoint temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s...Satellite still showing plenty of low clouds around the FA...However more breaks noted this morning,than yesterday morning...
SFC ANALYSIS.....
The pesky upper level low that I have been talking about over the last few day,is now centered around the Lake Huron...We find a mid to upper level ridge starting to build into the FA from the Western States........
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY....
Upper level low will push Eastwards today..Meantime a ridge will be building into the FA...So look for CLDS to give away to MSTLY sunny skies are we pound through the morning hrs...Highs today will be warmer than we have seen them over the last week....Should reach for the middle 70s most areas..Will run middle 70s for Fri also...Lows will drop back into the lower to middle 50s tonight and Fri night.Problem is models having a hard time on clearing out the clouds over my Northern parts of the FA..So them areas may very well remain CLDY through out much of the day So temps up North may hold onto the 60s once again....There will be a weak system moving in Fri,however models do keep the QPF well to our South..So Am not worry about that ATTM....
INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY....
NW flow aloft will keep the FA still on the cool side,however not as cold as it has been with more sunshine forecasted.Still below normal though.Trof is FCSTD to move into the Northern MN,however Am going to leave FCST dry,as some of the computer fields are not lining up right for rain chances...Am only to going to run with PTLY CLDY skies versus CLDY skies as the 700 RH charts would suggest to do...Highs on the 4th should range from the middle to upper 70s across the FA..May see an 80 or two in my Southern FA....Lows fall back into the middle 50s....Fireworks FCST...10 PM.....Will run with PLTY CLDY skies...Temps should be holding from 59 to 63...Winds will be light out of the S/SW...So looks to be a great night for the fireworks show that will light up the sky through out my FA....Sunday Temps hold in the middle to upper 70s under PTLY CLDY skies...Lows in the middle 50s.....Great weekend for camping,or any outdoor activity you and your family has planed...Don't forget about this Forecaster, as I have really nothing planed!...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....
MID to upper level ridge still FCSTD to hold onto the area through out this time frame....Temps will be warming into the 80s lows in the middle to upper 50s...Most of this period will be dry...Wed we will dealing with a system riding up and over the ridge..So showers and thunderstorms are a possibility....I may have highs on Wed to cool.If we get more sun than FCSTD we could be closer to the 90° mark.....
LONG TERM... (JULY 9 THROUGH JULY 18)....
Lets talk about the temp dept,since we had some problems with them keeping warm air over the area...We do start this time frame with temps in the middle to upper 80s may see a few 90° readings through this time frame..Right now I'm not going to jump the gun on that one..However looks like it will be a rather warm and humid period...So summer comes back from it's vacation....Ok now that we got the temps dept on the same page...Lets zip over to the precip dept and see what's going on there...Off and showers and thunderstorm will dot this FCST cycle....First shot gets fired at us on Fri the 10..Models are still hinting at chance of severe thunderstorms..Am not buying into this just yet,as models pushed this back a day now...We will have to watch Sun the 12 as a system moves just South of the area There may be showers and thunderstorms in my Southern parts of the FA...After that small chances of showers and storms...Overall dry conditions will return to the FA after the 13.....
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