This morning sure does feel like a fall morning...Forecast problems....Overall will see below normal temps,same old song and dance...Next problem the chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night...Along with the treat of severe thunderstorms, which by all means is not cut and dry like I'm sure you will hear or read.....If you like the cold weather you will love this FSCT cycle...
CURRENT CONDITIONS......
Sure feel like Sept this morning...Temps are in the 50s in my Southern FA...Central parts are in the middle to upper 40s...Northern areas in the middle to upper 30s...Hayward reporting 36 at this hrs...Winds for the most part calm...Most areas reporting fair skies...
SFC ANALYSIS.....
Strong 1023 MB high pressure is holing on to the upper Midwest/Northern Plains...There is a weak FNTL BDRY From the Western SD into Central IA..Radar is showing a few thunderstorms around Mason City IA....A few other showers are showing up towards the SW of Marshall MN......Also a few sprinkles showing up over Far Western WI,mainly over in Polk,and St.Croix Counties.....
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.....
High pressure will be in control of the weather...Any area that does have clouds this morning should clear out.....Will run with sunny skies as this shall be the rule for most of the day....Highs today should be like we saw yesterday...Middle to upper 70s..
Tonight will increase clouds ahead of our next system...Thinking is the MCS that doe form over SD/ND will only push as far East as Western Central MN...However this will aid in cloud formation over the FA...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT....
Problems rear their ugly heads once again,like they have been all summer long when it comes to severe thunderstorms threat,and rain chances......The NAMSTER and GFS are battling each other once again...While GFS and ECMWF has been seeing eye to eye on this system with some small timing and placement issues,no big deal,Am going to blend them for the FCST...1004 MB low pressure is FCSTD to be centered over far NW MN by 00Z Wed...Meantime a Cold front will extend Southwards from said low through Western MN...This will increase the showers and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon...Here is where things get tricky for severe thunderstorms....Lest talk about the upper level temps...H7 temps will be cooler than the last system...So Cap is not FCSTD to be as strong...Now if we can get some breaks in the CLD cover,This will allow SFC heating going which in return will up the INSTBY...Will also depend if we can get deep SFC moisture in time of the FNTL passage....If CLDS hold longer this will keep the destabilization down to a min..Hence will put the breaks on the severe thunderstorm threat...2M SFC dewpoints FCSTD to get into the middle 50s..Still not to thrilled about moisture getting into the area that fast with dewpoints 40s to start the day.....Wind shear is setting up rather nice...So most of the dynamics are in place....However above said will have a big impact on whether severe storms can indeed form....Lets for the sake of argument say severe thunderstorms do form...The main threat would be damaging winds,with hail....Thinking is the tornado threat would be over in MN...Storms will quickly form into lines by time they reach my FA..So straight line winds will be the main concern...This activity may form into a MCS if this does happen the severe weather threat may very well last into the over night hrs...I can't stress this enough this will all depend on SFC heating,along with dewpoints...See above again for the finer details....As of right now AM not going to throw my head onto the chopping block still a lot of uncertainties...Will update this FCST later today if needed....Either way does look like the FA will get some badly needed rainfall...QPF are FCST to be from 0.25 to as much as 0.50...Tuesday through Tuesday night...My thinking to severe weather threat should be held over IA once again....Highs on Tuesday will be tricky...lower 70s if CLDS hold..If we get some breaks temps could go for the middle to upper 70s..Winds are going to get carried away...Could see gusts up to 25 MPH....Lows Tuesday night won't drop off to much...Lower 60s....
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.....
Temps still well below norms for this time of year.....Along with dry conditions...Highs middle 70s,lows lower to middle 50s....As the Northwest flows keeps pulling down cold air from Canada....
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....
Temps do warm to the upper 70s to lower 80s for the upcoming weekend...Lows in the lower 50s to around 60 by Saturday night.....
LONGER TERM...(MONDAY JULY 20 through JULY 29)...
Temps warm through this period...However I have seen this way to many times this past spring and all of this summer so far...So as of right now I'm not going to buy into it...Will run with temps in lower to middle 80s most of this period...With lows right around 60. As the NW flow for the most part still has a strong hold of the FA....Will be off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms through this cycle......
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