Forecast headaches...Besides the forecast went a stray over night with clearing skies that was not expected...Main problem is whether to hold onto the chances of rain today through Friday....The other problem is when is summer going to get off it extending vacation? Lets try to hash all of this out....
CURRENT CONDITIONS.....
First off looking at the satellite image we see skies are MSTLY clear through out much of my FA....Clouds have been drifting South into my Far Northern areas...Temps in the lower to middle 50s at this hour..Temps last night here at the office dropped into the upper 40s....47.1°...Winds have a range of 5 to 13 MPH across the FA...Dewpoints in the middle to upper 40s...
SFC ANALYSIS....
This morning we see the CLD FNT that has pushed through the FA the other night is not located from SE MI down into the NW 1/3 of TX...1023 MB high pressure centered over far NE MT....We also find a 998 MB low pressure on the SW side of Hudson Bay..This will be the main system of concern today and tonight and Fri...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY......
Low pressure by Hudson Bay will keep a few weak short waves/ trofs moving through the area through this period....Clouds are FCSTD to be on the increase this morning...Can't rule out some light rain showers with very cold air in the upper levels and with SFC heating taking place,won't take to much to stir things up....Highs today will feel like a fall day...middle 60s to upper 60s for the most part...Maybe a 70 or two over my Southern FA...May not hit 60 in my far Northern areas....Tonight another trof starts to work South out of Canada...This should keep off and on rain showers going...Though I'm not really to thrilled about that....Lows tonight fall back into the 40s....Winds for today and tonight should have no trouble gusting up to around the 20 MPH out of the NW...Friday and Friday night will be down right cold for this time of year...Will keep light rain showers going still really not thrilled about,However models are in agreement so I can't disregard that....Good thing is winds will drop off some,however temps will have a hard time reaching the lower to middle 60s as the NW flow will not give up....Friday night lows fall into the lower to middle 40s..Still thinking if we get some clearing going...Temps in my far Northern Central areas along with my Northern FA could drop into the 30s,Highly unlikely ATTM Am banking on clouds to keep temps in check....
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.....
Looks to be a dry weekend on tap...Which I think most people would not mind getting more rain...As the drought conditions still holding strong over the area...Temps will begin to moderate as we fly through the weekend...Starting out in the in the lower to middle 70s on Sat...Lows in the middle 40s...Sunday Am going to warm temps a few degrees as we get into a return flow this should allow for WAA to slowly kick back in..So will up temps closer to 80 for Sunday will up lows Sunday night into the lower 50s...Monday Am going to up temps here also going for highs in the upper 70s North...Central areas should be a few degrees into the 80s...Southern areas may very will hit the middle 80s...I will run around 83 down there for now...Lows for Monday night should be right around the 60° mark....
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.....
This time frame we will see our next shot of showers and thunderstorms...Temps right around 80 for highs while lows should be in the middle to upper 50s....
LONG TERM...(JULY 23 THROUGH AUG 1).......
Main question here will summer return to the FA...Lets find out....To start this time frame will should still be close to norms,still some what below norms though...H8 temps to increase to around 24 C by the 30-31 time frame and hold for the first day of Aug....But how many time have we seen this in the long term FCST..So will not buy into this until we get closer to this time frame..Seems to me the best way to run with the trend that we have been in most of this spring and summer.As we remain under the NW flow through out much of this period..As far as showers and thunderstorms go.....Should see a few showers and thunderstorm dot this time frame...Still really see no drought busting rains for the FA....
NOTE....
CLD field has really got going over the over parts of my forecasts area now....
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4 years ago
