Monday, July 13, 2009

Updated forecast...It stands!

Overall the forecast is in very good shape..I'm still not buying into the SPC's thinking about widespread severe thunderstorms...I'm really losing hope in severe thunderstorms ATTM...RH fields from the H7 and H8 still would show cloudy skies..This will not allow for SFC heating to allow destabilization to get under way hindering the severe thunderstorm threat..So I see no reason to sound alarms to warn the public just yet...So I won't....However I have already heard and read it...Which I said would happen....See below's forecast for that....Also see forecast below for all the other reasons to why I feel the severe weather threat is very low,and getting lower once again ATTM...Models are showing this rather well,SPC is banking on getting more breaks in the clouds than I am right now...I still feel the best areas to severe thunderstorms will be over far Southern MN and IA.....Also it appears we may see yet another split in the thunderstorm complex...One heading North,while the other heads South into IA...If that happens we will a replay of what happen a few days ago...Thunderstorms over IA will rob most of the moisture returning North into the FA...I see QPF has drop to 0.25 at best now..Still may see some higher amounts in thunderstorms....Main story is severe thunderstorm chances are once again falling by the wayside...Will see what the 18z and 00z model runs show...