Forecast/drought conditions

Forecast concerns......Clouds,light rain/sprinkles/temps/Showers and thunderstorms Mon night through Tue night....Still will feel like a fall day today...Temps through next week will be closer to normal...Drought FCST below the long term FSCT...

CURRENT CONDITIONS.......

Temps across the FA this morning middle to upper 50s..What is interesting is temps at Superior is 57° Which should be colder than the other stations..Eau is also reporting 57°...Skies are cloudy through the whole FA...Winds from the NW either side of MPH.....

SFC ANALYSIS.....

Still dealing with the pesky upper level low pressure over the GRTLKS areas....Meanwhile large area of 1024 MB high pressure sitting over far Northwestern ND reaching down in the AR area....

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.....

Today the pesky upper level will still in control of the FA...This should provide the FA another cloudy day..Still can't rule out some ISO light rain showers/sprinkles...Highs shall still be on the cold side,not as cold as yesterday....Should see middle to upper 60s from North to the South ...Winds FCSTD to still be from the N/NW around 5 to 15 MPH..Tonight the upper level should have moved far enough east that we should start to see CLDS scatter out...Am going to run with PTLY CLDY skies tonight...Will go with temps from the middle to upper 40s from the North to the South...Winds are FCSTD to become light to calm...Will have to watch for the possibility of areas of fog in the overnight through early morning hrs..Moving onto Sunday...We shall see this big yellow object in the sky...Don't be alarmed it will be the sun...You read that right the sun does come out of hiding and this will help bring the temp into the middle 70s.....Lows Sunday night lower 50s should work out a okay... Winds will slowly be turning to W/SW this will also help draw warmer air back into the FA....

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY....

Monday still features sunshine on Monday with CLDS slowly increasing by evening...Highs Mon should reach for upper 70s across the FA..May see an 80 or two in my Central and Southern areas....Monday night and Tuesday looks to give us another shot of much needed rainfall...FNTL BNDRY moves into the FA from the Dakotas and through the area late Tue night...Models have been back and forth with the speed of this system,Still going to run with my thinking as of yesterday as models seem to have inverted back to once again..Showers and thunderstorms shall be more common by Tue late morning lasting through most of Tue evening..Models do paint out 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain...Farmers and everyone else can only hope for that to happen....Highs on Tue shall be a tad cooler with CLDS/showers and thunderstorms around...Middle 70s seem to be the way to run....Lows Tue night middle to upper 60s....

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....

To start this period...PTLY CLDY skies seem to be a good bet to place...So just gone ahead and did it....Highs Wed/Thur lower 80s....Low either side of 60...Next shot of showers and thunderstorms on the bar for Friday...Highs in the upper 70s FSCTD do to CLDS and Showers and thunderstorms around....Lows fall to either side of 60 once again....

LONG TERM.(SAT JULY 25 THROUGH MON AUGUST 3).......

First off lets check on the temp dept as this seems to be were our problems have been through most of the summer.
To start this period out temps still being a pain...upper 70s through Mon the 27...By the 28 temps do warm into the middle 80s..Temps get into the upper 80s to around 90 by the 29 and 30...However they do cool back off to the upper 70s to lower 80s by the end of this time frame....Not sure if I can buy into this warm FCST just yet,as I have seen this on the long range models all summer long....Ok onto the precip dept.....Does look like a active period coming up...So maybe we can slowly crawl out of this long term drought......So if long range FCST models are right look for a warmer and humid period with showers and thunderstorms like every other day or so.....

DROUGHT CONDITIONS.....

For the most part dry weather has ruled the area...This has led to the drought conditions to expand even more...Seems like our area is the hardest to be effected...We have received less than 70% of our normal precipitation over the last year...Even with the above avg snowfall we had...The snow had less moisture....The spring we really never saw the normal rain as we should have...This summer has been the same way...Systems seem to split parts head North and South of the area...The NIDIS has us my FA under a severe drought as of July 14..The FCST for drought conditions...Drought is FCSTD to be ongoing through my FA with some improvement...This FCST covers the period from July 16 through October....Their not saying we won't see heavy rainfall through this time frame...The FCST is a overall view of the conditions.....